When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

11.10.2008
Why Derek Lowe

LoweFriday I blithely suggested the Giants should go after Derek Lowe. It was obviously a half-baked idea, and several of you told me so. But I baked another quarter of it over the weekend, and I still think it’s worth pursuing with several caveats.

Before we discuss the conditions, here’s why I kind of like the idea: Not only is Lowe well above average, he would keep the bullpen out of the game. What would you prefer to spend: $8 million on two middle relievers, or $10 M-plus on someone who’ll throw more innings than two relievers combined? More on the salaries in a minute.

In his four years with L.A. Lowe averaged 6 1/3 innings per start. Even though he’s 35, he throws 75% sinkerballs (that’s a guess) and has a good chance of staying healthy in his late 30s. For the record, PECOTA projected 164 IP in 2008; Lowe threw 199. PECOTA also projected IP totals in the 165–170 range through 2012. I’ll bet the revised projection this winter adds a few innings to that.

Unscientifically, I’d say he’s got at least a 50% chance to throw 200+ innings in the next couple years. So he’s not only good at taking away innings from the bullpen game to game, he’s liable to make most of his starts.

WilsonAdd to that his extreme ground-ball tendencies. They’re good enough anywhere but a huge asset in Arizona and Coorstastrophe Field.

Plus, he looks like Owen Wilson, no?  

One more point about Lowe’s eatings of innings. It would take pressure off the other Giants starters to go deep. And when I say “other starters,” I really mean Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. How many times last year were they pushed a bit extra because the bullpen really needed a day off? (Or the bullpen really sucked?)

Lowe won’t be cheap. He averaged $9 million a year with the Dodgers, and even with the recession, I expect his annual average to be in the $12 M range. But it’s worth a phone call. Maybe he wants to stay on the West Coast. Maybe he’ll let the Giants get creative and, say, tie a couple mil a year to innings-pitched incentives. Or maybe he’ll let the Giants overpay for a short, two-year contract that would expire right when the Bumgarner/Alderson reinforcements were closer to taking over.

One could argue, too, that some of the money spent on Lowe is money the Giants don’t have to give a middle reliever who’s only going to pitch 60–80 innings. But they’d still have to move some salary to make Lowe make sense. How about Rowand?

Critics howl: Save the money for offense! We don’t need a 35–year-old pitcher! But I don’t think the Giants are best suited spending their free-agent money on offense this year. Teixiera? Not gonna happen. Pat Burrell? Adam Dunn? Casey Blake? Really? The Giants are better off trading Sanchez and a prospect or two for a big, young bat, preferably at an infield corner.

*DING! We interrupt this post to marvel at the news that Billy Beane has traded three young players for Matt Holliday, who will no doubt walk after 2009.* 

Back to Lowe: I don’t think the Giants have a shot at him, to be honest. I think he’ll have his choice of teams better positioned to compete. A 35–year-old with a history of big postseason performances who’s staring at what could be his last contract probably won’t take two or three years from a rebuilding team in a town with cold summer nights. But if it’s true the Giants have up to $20 M before they hit next year’s payroll ceiling, the addition of Lowe would still give them between $5 M and $10 M for cheap bullpen and offensive help, with more room cleared if they can trade Roberts and Rowand. 

It never hurts to ask.



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14 Comments

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I understand the thinking behind getting a better pitcher and that works if we are trying to maximize wins in 2009. That's why the thought of adding Sabathia was intriguing to me.

But while we can use an innings eater in 2009, he won't really be useful after that because both Bumgarner and Alderson look like they are going to be ready in that timeframe, and the other three starters that make sense are Lincecum, Cain, and Zito.

I like that he's a shorter term commit and thus won't overlap when we hope to sign Lincecum and Cain to long-term extensions.

Still, do we want to win with Lowe or do we want to boost the bullpen so that Lincecum and Cain wins the games they should have? I prefer the latter.

Owen's a little skinny in that pic. Put twenty pounds on him, and they're dead ringers.

I'm not worried about Lowe blocking Alderson or Bumgarner. Both are fantastic, but I think you start counting your chickens before they've hatched when you talk about them being in the majors over the next 1-2 years.

Agreed. To assume two 21-year-olds will be ready for full-season major league action in 2010 just doesn't make sense. It makes far more sense to assume one of the two will never reach the majors and plan accordingly.

I like Lowe as a pitcher that might be a little undervalued in the market just because he's not CC, Sheets, or Burnett.

If you're wondering, FanGraphs has him throwing his sinker 65% of the time from '05-'08.

I have heard that he wants to go back east and pitch, specifically for Boston. Whether or not he goes in that direction is anybodies guess, but I can see him heading back to Boston depending on how the Red Sox want to use Buchholz.

One thing to think about with the Giants and Lowe is the infield defense. The Giants infield in '08 was rather porous and probably ranks in the bottom 3 infields in the NL. The Dodgers infield was closer to average. If you're bringing in a groundballer, you need to have the personal to catch the groundballs.

Good point about the infield D. It's an open question for next year. Burriss at SS, pretty good, at 2B, very good. Velez at 2B, ugh. Frandsen....wild card? Who knows how he'll bounce back from the Achilles injury?

Sandoval at either corner seems to have limited range but good hands. Ishikawa in limited time looked good at 1B, Bowker less so.

Bringing in Adrian Beltre at 3B would be a big boost on D, by the way, one of the underappreciated parts of his game.

Beltre, who was the best 3B defender last year by plus/minus, would do a lot for the infield. Getting Durham out of the infield should also help, too but it depends on who the Giants replace him with. Burriss? He would help a lot. Velez? Not so much.

Bowker was below average at 1B and hopefully Sandoval or Ishi can play close to average.

This post frames it up nicely. I think SF is a longshot because a very strong market will develop for Lowe and he'll have his pick of teams like the Mets or Tigers (he's from Mich.) or any of the super-rich teams that are still not satiated after CC/Sheets/Burnett get swallowed up. The other thing is that the proposed pitching alternative -- $8 mil for 2 middle relievers -- is anything but sure. We've seen how relievers, esp. middle relievers, are unpredictable year to year and can easily get overvalued and stick teams with bad contracts (while unheralded guys like Romo step up). Lowe, at least, has been a sure thing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lowe gets a better contract than Sheets.

Why bother with Lowe when Sabathia is on the market. Yes, it will take more money, but if you look at 2010, there will be over $40 million coming off the books from our 2008 team salary. Plenty for Sabathia with more money on the back-end and then I would like to add one-power hitter after 2009, maybe Matt Holiday, and maybe going after a potential young power-hitter like Chris Davis from the Rangers now, who would play third. I think that would still give us plenty of financial room to add a couple of worthy middle-relievers and maybe an extra-bat for 2B or 1B if things dont pan out this year with our current roster. But Sandoval should be starting at 1B if we keep Molina. Trade Sanchez for Chris Davis, then trade Molina for a #3 type of pitcher to take Sanchez spot in the rotation.

>>Why bother with Lowe when Sabathia is on the market. Yes, it will take more money...

The point is to avoid long term contracts for pitchers. And do you think $20 M+ annually for Sabathia will give the Giants twice the performance of $10-12 M/year for Lowe?

I think this is the correct type of thinking, namely that the Giants should acquire one experienced arm to soak up innings for the #3 or #4 slot in the rotation at a cost of up to $10-12 million per year, because of the load it takes off the bullpen's shoulders. The problem is that it probably won't be Lowe, because he wants to go back east. But there are other candidates.

As for other moves, I still think that moving Rowand is critical, either to the Yankees or the White Sox (both of whom apparently would take him), and I would still explore with Seattle what it would take beyond Sanchez to get Beltre to anchor down 3B, even if it meant putting Pablo at 1B for the next two years or so. Alternately, we know that Kenny Williams wants to move Javier Vasquez (pricey, but an innings-eating K machine at a 3 or 4 spot) or Nick Swisher. But the idea of adding an experienced innings-eater at the back of the rotation has lots of merit and would make their bullpen decisions less important and less prone to overpayment.

The thing is nobody should pay pitchers for long term contracts. Three years max. Look at some of these busts in recent years:

Barry Zito
Denny Neagle
Chan Ho Park
Mike Hampton
Kevin Brown
Carl Pavano

I can even toss in Jason Schmidt, and that was only three years.

I think you sign them to long term when they are young, and when they get around thirty, which is where I guess CC is at, let them go. The amount of work the Brewers put into that arm, I wouldn't be surprised if it fell off in spring training.

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