In all the back and forth about the Giants’ potential moves this winter, there’s often an underlying assumption that this team shouldn’t get too giddy about competing in 2009, or even 2010. When guys like Madison Bumgarner, Tim Alderson, Buster Posey, Angel Villalona and Nick Noonan arrive on the scene, though, watch out! It’ll be a youth-infused victoryfest! A new reign of homegrown pennant greed. The NL West? From 2011 on, it’s ours, pal.
Wait a second. There are some good assumptions, here, for sure. Such as: The Giants’ farm system is more likely to produce good major-league players in 2011 and 2012 than in 2008 or 2009. The Class of Bumalder Noonalona is more talented than anything the Giants have had for a while.
What’s more, I don’t have tons of faith that from the Class of 2008 debuts this year, the Giants will end up with more than a player or two of lasting goodness. Pablo Sandoval is the immediate best of the bunch, and he’s no sure thing. I love his squeezy cheeks to death, but large bets of money on his long-term success I would not make.
But there are two things very wrong with this wait-til-next-decade! cry. One: Of the big five prospects listed in the first paragraph, perhaps one or two will be difference-making big-league players. The 2011 (or ‘12, or ‘13) starting eight will not look like this:
2B Noonan
SS Burriss
3B Sandoval
1B Villalona
C Posey
LF Lewis
CF Rowand
RF Schierholtz
…and the rotation won’t look like this:
Lincecum
Cain
Bumgarner
Alderson
Zito
The second bad assumption that flows from the first bad one is this: The Giants shouldn’t spend free-agent money until the youth movement is in full force. Wait to see how all these young ‘uns pan out, then fill the gaps with wads of cash.
In theory, yeah. Great. In practice, you might be waiting forever. Even the savviest-drafting teams see most of their top prospects flame out, burn out, drop out, or just plain get mediocre. Wait for those troops to arrive before buying reinforcements? You might as well get this guy to cover the team for the local paper.
Don’t get me wrong. I’d love to see every member of the 2008 Augusta GreenJackets playing in the bigs and earning All-Star consideration in 2011 or ‘12. But when the right free-agent deals come along that hedge smartly against prospect failure, you have to pounce. That’s why two years for Edgar Renteria arguably makes more sense than four years of Rafael Furcal.
There’s a running joke that long ago ceased to be funny about the Giants overpaying for old players. What’s funny is that the people making those jokes never laugh at the Pittsburgh Pirates or the once-upon-a-time Montreal Expos, forever placing their future on next year’s draft, not being able to afford to keep the good ones or lure talent from elsewhere.
It’s good and smart and right (and cheap!) to build from within, but sooner or later, you have to trust someone over 30.
