When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

12.04.2008
Absolutely Positively The Last Word on Renteria Until Tomorrow

Now that the Giants have officially signed Edgar Renteria to a contract suspiciously similar to the one rumored before Thanksgiving — the one the Giants and Renteria’s agents denied — I guess we owe Sweeny Murti of WFAN an apology.

The numbers, thanks to the AP: Renteria gets a $2 million signing bonus, $7 million next year and $9 million in 2010. The Giants have a $10.5 million option for 2011 with a $500,000 buyout.

It also begs the question: did the parties have a deal in place for more than a week but left unsigned to make sure the Tigers didn’t offer Renteria arbitration? If so, is that legal? If it’s legal, it means either Renteria couldn’t get anything better than the Giants’ offer even with time to shop it around, or he really really really wanted to play for the Giants and told his agents not to bother trying elsewhere.

Which do you think is the case?

Do other teams know something the Giants don’t know? Such as: the risk of Renteria’s skills falling off a cliff far outweigh the reward of a potential bounce-back year (or two)? Or the magic powder labeled “National League” that Renteria has sprinkled over his body in past revivals is now tainted with Chinese melamine and no longer available?

Again, let me point out this article, which I hold against my cheek like a warm fuzzy blankie everytime I feel scared and alone. (For more warm fuzzies from the geeknerds, check this out. Or just read this sentence: “Affeldt and Howry are significant upgrades to the Giants bullpen, and for a total 2009 cost of $7 million, the Giants have gotten quite a bit better already this winter.”)

I am also a firm believer that just because one highly speculative, initially refuted rumor turns out to be true, the next one won’t necessarily be. In case you’re intrigued by the idea of standing in the bleachers next year and shouting “Yes! We! Cantu!”, try this one on for size.

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Renteria on the 40–man with a $7 M salary.  



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>>it means either Renteria couldn’t get anything better than the Giants’ offer even with time to shop it around, or he really really really wanted to play for the Giants and told his agents not to bother trying elsewhere.

This A/B analysis assumes Renteria had all the leverage. But what if Sabean said, "Take the deal the week of Dec. 1, or we'll look at other options (Hudson, trades, etc.)-- and we will be active at the winter meetings." I would hope Sabean did just that, if only to get a decision. Of course, A (Edgar couldn't get a better deal by waiting) and B (he wants to play for the Giants) might still have factored in.

Not that it matters much now. He's signed; let's hope he keeps working out hard (as reported in Schulman's story).

My only worry here is the weather. Renteria has tended to wilt in cold weather locales both offensively and defensively. The length and terms of the contract are favorable to the Giants. The team is either totally certain of the depressed market around baseball, or they're just convincing their targets that the market is way down. Either way, I believe it's a win for the organization on all three of these contracts so far.

So with the signing of Renteria, does that mean that Sabean has made all his significant free agent moves this offseason? There was an indication that the giants had around 12-20 million to spend and by my calculations this deal puts them at 14 million committed including Howry and Affeldt.

I will give Sabes some credit on Howry and Affeldt who should be upgrades and at least bring some much needed experience to a shaky bullpen last year. However, the lineup really hasn't changed and the defense has gotten worse. If he brings in Cantu we might be looking at the worst defensive infield in the majors. Renteria is a more expensive version of Castillo or Durham or any other player the giants have signed in the last 5 years. It truly amazes me when you compare all of the high priced free agent talent that has been brought in over the years, they are all essentially the same players!! Some have a little more power but not enough, some have a little more speed but nothing significant, and they all are past their prime and overpaid. Winn, Rowand, Durham, Roberts, Renteria, and Vizquel to me are all guys who should be batting 7,8,or 9 on good teams. On bad teams the best they offer is maybe batting 2nd. None of them are middle of the lineup bats which I thought was a high priority going into this offseason.

I don't see why we didnt sign Dunn or Burrell for a few million more to play first since either one of them can bat cleanup and make some significant contributions offensively and are just as bad defensively as Cantu. I have a revised projected lineup based on the players we have in place and assuming Sabes trades for Cantu:

1. Lewis LF
2. Renteria SS
2. Winn RF
6. Cantu 1B
6. Sandoval 3B
6. Molina C
7. Rowand CF
8. Burris 2B

That will be the order but the number to the left is where each of them should be batting. It should be interesting to see how bad this lineup can be both defensively and offensively. I think Sabean has made a huge mistake relying on Renteria to pick up where Omar left off at short and if he thinks that Sandoval is going to play third, Cantu at first, and Burriss or Frandson or Velez at second, the infield is clearly weaker then last year or possibly the last 25 years. Rowand in center is another nightmare and Lewis had his problems in Left so that means Winn in RF and Molina are the only two defensive positions we can feel ok about.

This is a good signing. Happy day for the Giants! Now let's see Sabaen work the magic with a blockbuster trade for a corner infielder with a middle of the order bat. The Giants have enough young arms that they can afford to make a deal. Ideally they can find someone young and relatively cheap in terms of a trade who has not really come into his own yet, but is just now starting to put it all together. Even better if this stellar young corner infielder is blocked by an established 1B/3B on their current club. Wishful thinking I know. Hard to do I know. But that should be the mission. (perhaps Evan Longoria has a long lost and otherwise unheralded twin???). Of course the other option is to trade for an established corner infielder who is in his prime, but this would assuredly cost the Giants even more dearly. Then the Giants need to sign one more FA starting pitcher (or trade for one). It doesn't have to be Sabathia or any other huge name, huge money sort of pitcher. In fact rather than a long term money-eating contract, a one year deal (at most two) for a starter would be good for the Giants. Just long enough to get Pucetas, Bumgarner, Alderson and company a bit more seasoning. If the Giants make these moves they will very much be in contention for the NL west next year. The only move Sabaen has made this offseason which seemed pointless was the release of Correia/Henessey in order to sign Howry. Not sure I would have spent the money on Affeldt either, but he seemed to be a substantial upgrade, so it at least made some sense. Sabaen deserves some kudos.

I think the Giants are already competitive with the changes made thus far. They were already playing .500 with the same basic roster for the last two months of the season.

Meanwhile, they have improved greatly offensively at SS, will have Sandoval improve 3B for the whole season, improved the bullpen quality, where we lost leads that we already had, probably at least 10 potential wins handed off to the bullpen and lost.

In addition, other possibilities are Zito pitching as well as he did ending the season, Sanchez pitching as well as he did in the early-middle of the season, Rowand hitting like he did first two months instead of last part of season, Lewis playing better because his bunions don't hurt anymore, Wilson developing and becoming more of a stopper, Valdez staying healthy all year and pitching as well, Sandoval could somehow hit for a whole season what he hit in 2008, Ishikawa could hit like he did for the whole season, plus Winn could be traded with Schierholtz hitting better than him.

I like your optimism, and it is not entirely unfounded. But those are a lot of "ifs". I think that Zito is a real key to the next season. Has he turned it around? The end of last season also gave me hope, but we shall see. I made a foolish bet with a friend over a Zito turn-around. I bet him that Zito would go .500 or above next year. Crazy? Probably. The odds are certainly against me given Zito's recent performance and the Giants offensive woes, but I have a hunch that I might just win that bet. If I win my friend has to wear a Giants hat for a day when he comes to visit me. He is a Pirates fan and hates the Giants so it will be rough on him if I win. Wearing a Pirates hat won't be nearly as tough for me. I still think that the middle of the order bat would make a world of difference -- and it would help me win the bet!

As much as I would like you to win your bet, I don't think we necessarily need more bats to win with the rotation we have. In addition, Zito won't be facing the other team's aces for us anymore, now that Lincecum is up top, and he probably falls to 3rd in the rotation, where he should be able to - assuming as you say, his uptick in performance from the end of last season - win a fair number of games there instead of having to tough it out.

I think the real key, and this is why it fuels my optimism, is either one of Zito or Sanchez pitches the way they showed a glipse of from 2008 - Zito from end, Sanchez from first half. If one of them can do that, then we would have a rotation of top (

People forget that there is no "2008" Giants team. There are distinct differences from one part of the season to the next, and the one most pertinent to our analysis for how they will do in 2009 is the Giants from late August to the end of the season, as that represents the closest roster to what we will have in 2009. And that "Giants team" went 22-21.

Sure Sandoval was hot then, but Rowand was very cold. They should balance out. Vizquel was hot too, but Renteria should match that easily, if not beat it. Also, Correia, Palmer, and Sanchez (had nearly 8.00 ERA!) were pitching really crappy then, bringing down the team and the rotation. Sanchez should do much, much better than that.

Meanwhile, the offense was scoring 4.35 runs per game.

There wasn't anyone really doing anything that their history didn't suggest that they could do that, that I can remember. Plus we add Renteria, Howry, Affeldt.

We won't be winning 90 games, but we should be competitive at .500+ ball if not contending because SD, AZ, and CO have been selling off or losing players to free agency, and LA lost a whole bunch of players.

I mean, last season all these teams in the NL West struggled to reach .500, with only LA and AZ doing it, and barely at that, and both have major losses of personnel, LA has lost 3 of 5 starters plus Manny, their only reason they were over .500 because they were at .500 when he joined them, AZ lost Dunn and probably Hudson and The Big Unit. They have all lost people while we were within shouting distance of .500 (having a better bullpen in 2008 could have brought us very close to .500) and added needed relievers and improved two positions greatly (SS and 3B) plus possibly improved LF if the bunion affected Lewis's play negatively in any way (one must assume some detriment, else why operate?).

Of course, the Giants should continue to shop Zito, Roberts, Rowand, Molina, and Winn (in that order!). Trading any one of these players makes tons of sense right now if someone is willing to take them off our hands and the Giants don't have to eat too much of the contract (in the case of the first three) or we can get a decent prospect or two and drop the salary (in the case of the last two). I still think Sandoval should stay at C.

so is it true what they say that ignorance is bliss?

BA noted:

From their Cal League description: “He looks considerably less comfortable on defense. Though he has arm strength and threw out 46 percent of basestealers with San Jose, his hands and lack of agility work against him at catcher. San Francisco also played him at both infield corners, but his squat body and limited athleticism don’t profile well there either.”

From their Eastern League description, “He has a strong arm, but the scouts contacted for this list who had seen Sandoval catch didn’t believe he could play there regularly in the major leagues. Two managers said Sandoval had problems just physically squatting behind the plate, while two AL scouts both used the same cliché: "He can’t catch a cold.”

However, John Manuel notes, “He just hits. If I were the Giants, I’d stick him at first base next year and leave him in the middle of the lineup. I doubt he can play third base or catcher well enough to be a big league regular, so maybe he should try throwing lefthanded more often to help him be a better defender at 1B. … Dude can hit.” Scouts also think he can hit too.

Pato, I don't see how you can say this infield is weaker than last year's. By position:
SS: Last year we were next to last in O. Renteria is likely to be somewhere between his '07 and '08 numbers, making him a clear upgrade offensively over Bocock/Omar/Ochoa/Burriss. R's D will be a little weaker than our '08 version, but the O will more than make up for it.
3b: You're joking right? Sandoval/Frandsen/)possibly Aurilia) is weaker than Rohlinger/Castillo/et al? There was no offensive production at all, except for the games Sandoval played 3b. A full year of Sandoval is very likely significantly better than last year.
2b, from my point of view is likely to be about the same as last year, although it is possible, if Burriss and Frandsen platoon they could be better than last year.
1b. Too early to tell as we don't know who will be our 1b, so I'll wait to comment until we know

Frank, Omar even at 43 is still a defensive god. Renteria is below average at best with the glove and his stats are decieving. Think about it, why has he played for 5 different teams now in 6 years? Why did Atlanta let him go after he batted .332? In my opinion he is a downgrade in the field at a position that is by far the most important defensively and offensively I expect him to put up similar numbers to Randy Winn.

Sandoval no matter where you put him is a liability on defense so either first or third we can expect a few more errors then even Castillo last year. I love his bat and hope he stays consistent but unless he is surrounded by gold glovers I see him performing below average as well in the field either at first or third.

Second base is going to be about the same although the more Velez and Frandson play I think the more bonehead plays we can expect. Frandson is a defensive nightmare as well, remember the experiment last spring training trying him at short? I had to laugh when sabes outright said he would be the starting shortstop after omar got injured and then 3 days later it was bocock starting there. Another sabean decision that left me scratching my head after seeing how well ochoa and burriss played there later in the year.

First base will either be Sandoval, Ishi, Bowk, or someone like Cantu. If it is Cantu then we can expect a few mistakes there and offensively his numbers are going to take a dip just like rowands did last year.

So bottom line is that without Omar anchoring the D at short and having Sandoval at one of the corners, the infield is going to be weaker defensively. Offensively Sandoval is an obvious upgrade, Cantu could be a slight upgrade but probably not enough to give up Sanchez to get him, and Renteria will put up better numbers then Omar but still not the type of production this offense is lacking.

We don't need anymore 2-hole hitters on this team. We need some power bats and spending 18 million on Renteria makes it that much less likely that we will get one in free agency or even through a trade because whatever player we trade for is going to have a pretty hefty price tag.

If it were 5 years ago and Bonds was still around then guys like Rowand, Renteria, and Winn would be nice complimentary players but for those of you that haven't noticed, Bonds is gone!! The strategy hasn't changed since he left, sabean continues to go after aging veterans paying them top dollar but now he has no Bonds that these types of players used to compliment. That is the bottom line reason why I can't support these types of moves, if Bonds were still here they would be somewhat acceptable but since he isn't we are just building a team full of overpaid roleplayers.

I think that with the Giants looking to sign Sabathia that means that money will not hold them back from paying for a bat, if they like the value proposition and risk.

In addition, they could possibly trade away Winn or Rowand or both (Lewis would play CF, Roberts/Bowker in LF, Schierholtz in RF) to clear out salary if they wished.

I hope you are right. I just wonder if the reason why they didn't trade Winn last season is because nobody wants him. I'm afraid Rowand is no different, there is a reason why we signed him for 60 million, nobody else would pay that much.

I don't see any other team in the league who would take on the salaries of Winn, Rowand, Roberts, Zito, or Renteria for that matter. What did we get from Milwaukee for Durham last season, nobody?? We would have to give these players away since they are all high paid complimentary role players.

I think they didn't trade away Winn because they didn't want the team to crash and burn, which could demoralize the young players.

Durham is a wild card, he wasn't going to draw much interest because of his history of injury plus his horrible 2007. Plus they took on his salary.

Winn is a pretty steady performer except for that one season with us. I think Mark Kotsay is a similar player to Winn and he netted a good reliever with closer ability in Joey Devine plus another prospect and cash. I wouldn't mind a deal like that, one good prospect close to the majors, one prospect that was good but not that great plus cash.

And there are teams looking for OF, they would be more interested after the musical chairs of free agency ends, and the ones who still need OF could come to the Giants about Winn (or Roberts or Rowand or even Schierholtz).

There were teams willing to pay Rowand $12M but not 5 years, 4 years was the max. Now he has a 4 year deal.

Roberts would be the only one that we would have to give away and pay salary. I don't think the Giants can trade Renteria away right after signing him. :^) And Zito, well, until he returns to at least averageness for a couple of years (and hopefully he starts in 2009), he is untradeable. However, I think even if he is mediocre through the life of the contract, he would be tradeable in his last year of his contract, with some money, maybe half, because mediocre pitchers would be making that much at that time.

Ego sometimes play into the decision. According to reports, Renteria said that Giants impressed him by being more aggressive in their pursuit of him than other teams.

Also, they probably had the basics agreed upon of what Renteria's agent was looking for but then the agent leaked out the figure to see if any other team would be willing to beat the Giants.

I think legally there is nothing wrong with them coming to basic agreement on the deal but waiting to see what happens with arbitration. They owe no legal right to the Tigers to get them a draft pick, just like they have no right to tell the Tigers not to offer him arbitration and make it easier for him to sign with a team. They chose to cut off ties with him by buying him out.

Now whether the collective bargaining agreement or any owner's agreement is violated, don't know about that.

The Giants had leverage in that Furcal is the better SS out in the market and could bid for him. If I were Sabean, I would be upfront with that but let Renteria's agent know that the Giants are not comfortable with the years/injury and thus is pursuing Renteria as our number 1 choice and basically ask Renteria's agent what it would take for the Giants to sign him right now, without going to other teams.

That's what Sabean has appeared to do previously, he would target who he wants and pay top dollar to get his man.

At this point, with the economy crashing (already one of the longest recessions in history and we didn't know about it until days ago), getting the money you were hoping for is likely better than waiting in the bush for a better deal. Hence, why his agent leaked the deal out to see if any other team would come in and say "wait, I can beat that deal", to throw one last line out there into the water to see if there was anybody out there like that. It's the internet era of the auctioneer saying "going once, going twice, ...." before saying "sold!"

But with teams waiting on Furcal, with Cabrera as another fallback option should Renteria do sign, and Wilson and Greene (now gone) and perhaps the Rays' Barrett (plus I think Miggie Tejada was mentioned as available from the Stros) as trade options, I guess other teams decided that they would rather wait until the music stopped than beat the Giants offer. After all, all the negatives people have mentioned for him is probably clear to the teams as well, but not all examined his GB/LD/FB ratios or K% or BB/K or BABIP to see that he's probably just a victim of bad luck last season.

I would also note that defensively, there is something bad about the Tiger's infield, for the 2005-2007 period, errors in the infield were at 115 where the league average was 100 (according to Bill James 2008 Handbook). Whatever causes that is probably affecting any defensive metric for him that you would look at for him. I think he will surprise on defense for us in 2009, after all, he's won two gold gloves before, so he's no slouch.

Along with what OGC is saying, how good/bad is Miguel Cabrera defensively? A report someone posted said Renteria still excelled going to the 3B side but was bad going to the hole. Was he overcompensating for Cabrera's poor range, if in fact he has poor range, is he truly poor at going to the hole (towards 2B)?

Also, I think Rowand is virtually untradable right now, IMO... I don't know who'd be willing to go 4/48 on him right now, esp in this market, especially knowing Cameron comes into play at less money and less time if/when Sabathia signs anywhere but Milwaukee.

Cabrera isn't that good a 3B, about average. But he played mostly 1B in 2008, so you can't blame him for Renteria. Guillen played 89 games there and was good there (BP) so you can't blame him either. Brandon Inge played there as well, 51 games, and he's known to be an excellent 3B.

Also, according to BP, Renteria has been slightly below average as a SS, but worth about two wins above a replacement SS. Omar was rated about 2 wins about replacement by BP (RAR2) also, but played many less games, so was considered a good fielder (Rate2 was 113 and RAA2 was 10). So there will be a drop in defense, but a huge increase in offense.

Looked another way, Renteria had a WARP1 of 3.2 and Vizquel of 1.2, so Renteria is worth 2 wins over Vizquel overall. In fact, Renteria's 2008 WARP1 equals Vizquel's 2007 + 2008 WARP1.

Wow, Burriss was worth 2.2 WARP1 in 2008, despite playing so few games (or does games not matter?). He was actually rated pretty good at SS by BP defensively.

Renteria and Cantu might be the worst defensive left side of the infield in the entire game. Please, no Cantu.

Renteria and Sandoval will be making up the worst defensive left side of the infield in the league, Cantu will be ole'ing balls in the dirt from 1B.

good knowledge on the melamine. I can't argue with the signing. An infield comprised of Frandsen, Valez, Burriss, Ochoa, or god forbid Bocock is a scary proposition. Keep up the solid work!

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