When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

12.17.2008
Adios, Aloha, Auf Wiedersehen, Goodbye

PalmI think BP’s Kevin Goldstein had the scoop last night on the demise of the Hawaiian Winter League. Seems that it makes more financial sense to run a second fall/winter league in Arizona. Hard to argue with that.

The tidbit that caught my eye in Goldstein’s post, however, was this: “Still, the league filled a crucial gap in the winter league landscape, providing the opportunity of extra playing time for talents one notch below the AA/AAA level of the Arizona Fall League and the various Latin American circuits.”

Perhaps those minor-league equivalents are common knowledge, but I’d never heard it so explicitly. One notch below AA/AAA would be High A/AA, right? Reports from Hawaii said the parks favored the pitchers. So let’s make a rough parallel between Hawaii and the Giants’ AA affiliate, Connecticut, an extreme pitchers’ park.

That gives us a slightly better gauge of the performances we saw in Hawaii from Buster Posey and Roger Kieschnick. We can sum up Posey this way: Initially had a lot of trouble on defense. Hit for very little power but high average. Kieschnick showed excellent power but had trouble making contact. Remember we’re going on small sample sizes, 74 and 110 at bats respectively, but at least contemplate these questions:

* If Posey hits .338 / .405 / .392 (his HWL line) in double-A next year, will you be concerned?

* If Kieschnick launches a HR every 18 at-bats but struck out nearly half the time in Connecticut, will you label him the next Rob Deer?  

* Based on their HWL numbers, should these guys even start next year at AA?

You can run through the same half-assed thought exercise with the performances in the AA/AAA-equivalent AFL. Or you can say these sample sizes are way too small and it’s not worth the brain cells. The choice, my friends, is yours.

**

Link of the day: In his circuitous way, Peter Gammons made an excellent point over the weekend that the economy could turn a lot of teams desperate by mid-summer to shed contracts. The real action might happen in June and July, not December and January.

Desecrated photo courtesy of flickr user Go Card USA.
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3 Comments

| Leave a comment
obsessivegiantscompulsive | December 18, 2008 12:49 AM | Reply

I thought Posey would be going to AA where Decker is, but Skeels, the new San Jose skipper is also an ex-catcher.

I would rather push him a little and put him in AA. I had seen somewhere that a Giant official had said that the Hawaiian league was equivalent to AA (Bobby Evans?). If he hits that in Connecticut, then his road numbers will be somewhere close to 900-950 OPS, which would be pretty good for the league, so I would be happy.

Kieschnick I would put in San Jose because he didn't hit that well for average in Hawaii, however, the park exascerbates strikeouts according to an MiLB study, so that wouldn't be good for him, who strikes out a lot anyhow. But AAA would be pushing it, I think, plus he wouldn't be blasting them in Connecticut, Dodd Stadium kills power, particularly HR power. We really should not have returned there, we should have changed affiliates somehow, somewhere, just anywhere but there.

Mark O'Connor | December 18, 2008 10:09 AM | Reply

When we drafted Posey I thought he'd be our starter in 2010 with a call-up at the end of 2009. I guess our previous Golden Spikes winners (Will the Thrill and The Franchise) spoiled me by spending almost no time in the minors.

So, "yes." If Posey's HWL slash line is repeated in AA (or AAA) I will be VERY concerned!

Zo | December 18, 2008 1:46 PM | Reply

re: Peter Gammons' comment, I think if the revenue streams decrease for MLB owners, it will wind up hurting the lower revenue (and lower payroll) teams more than the rich teams. In other words, the Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs and doggers will benefit, and the Royals, Pittsburgers, Marlins and Reds will suffer.

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