Several marquee players weren't offered arbitration last night. Here's a list of the surprises,
according to MLB Trade Rumors:
Bobby Abreu
Joe Beimel
Pat Burrell
Adam Dunn
Braden Looper
Jamie Moyer
Randy Wolf
Kerry Wood
I would add Bobby Howry to that list. He's no Kerry Wood, but he was Type-A. Now his next team won't have to forfeit draft picks. In his good years, he's about as good as a setup man gets. In fact, I'll bet Howry is the Giants' next top priority. There's plenty of chatter about Burrell and Dunn, seeing how the Giants desperately need home run hitters, but neither of those guys fits the bill. Burrell is 32 and exudes near-future DH-ness. Dunn is younger and could make the switch to full-time 1B more easily, but with his
terrible career numbers at Mays Field, I doubt he wants to sign a long-term deal with S.F. Fans tend to forget the "free" part of free agency. Just offer bank cash dollars, and they will come? No. These guys have personal preferences, too.
In addition to Howry, I wouldn't be shocked if the whisper mill links the Giants to Looper and Wolf. A few mil for one of those guys as 5th starter could work for me and give the Giants more breathing room in case Lowry doesn't return or Jonathan Sanchez is traded. I'd love to see the injury-prone Wolf on an incentive-heavy contract, but he'll probably get enough interest to demand guaranteed money. You want a really dark horse candidate? Put a few bucks on Randy Johnson. Laugh all you want, but the Unit was very good and fairly durable in 2008. Thirty starts, 184 innings, 173 Ks versus only 44 walks? Sure, he might never reach those numbers again as his body continues to crumble, but what's the risk worth? How about $5 M guaranteed with another $5 M in incentives?
Just what I was thinking, Lefty. I figure Howry is the next signing we try to make, especially because he doesn't walk many. Looper also seems a good bet to get an offer from Sabes. I hadn't thought too much about either of the lefties you bring up, but I'm not sure why. I guess it's always seemed that Wolf had other desired destinations, and I do remember the Unit hating the mound at AT&T this year. I'm sure they could work on it for him, though.
I saw Randy pitch this season against Sanchez at Mays Field and he was still pumping it up around mid 90's with the fastball and getting plenty of swingthroughs. From a purely marketing standpoint the big unit makes a ton of sense because he is 5 wins away from 300 and you know how Giants fans love to see records and milestones made. He also would be a draw much like Lincecum every fifth day as more and more giants fans are picking and choosing the games they go to based on who the starting pitcher is that day (Lincecum=yes, Sanchez=maybe, Zito=would rather stay at home and do yard work.)
I am curious to see who Sabean goes after during the Winter meetings this year as the names that have floated around haven't been very inspiring. I am still holding out hope for a deal with Milwaukee (preferably Prince but would also take JJ, Bill Hall if he came real cheap, and would love to pry away Hart but not likely), or Texas (they need pitching and have first basemen to spare), or my alltime favorite trade with the Marlins (Alderson, Pucetas, Gillespie, and Sanchez for Hanley Ramirez and Uggla... I am holding my breath).
A few things to keep in mind re Johnson:
1. Getting swingthroughs from Giants batters is really not that great of a feat.
2. It's more realistic to think that if Johnson pitches again next year on an incentive deal, it probably won't be with a non-contender like the Giants. Same goes for Pedro.
3. He is a local boy (I think he's originally from Livermore), so maybe that might sway him. However, if we're going to throw dollars at local boys, please let it be CC.
Johnson got swingthroughs from a lot of batters this year, nearly a strikeout an inning. I'll bet he'd also like to stay in the NL West, close to his Arizona home. If I had to bet, I'd say the Dodgers make a strong run at him. Booo.
I like the Big Unit idea. I was thinking Pedro Martinez because of his connection with Felipe, but Johnson is probably the better bet between the two.
Of course, it depends on how much money each is asking. Pluses for Pedro is that he had a nice stretch of goodness in August, plus he was OK in July too and had some OK starts at the end, but some bad luck affected him in the last start where he was pretty dominant overall. If he's willing to take a much smaller base than Johnson but incentives to equal him, that could work for me.
In addition, your team goal would affect choice as well. You get Johnson if you want to contend in 2009, Martinez if you want to play the value game.
Burrell is not nearing DH-ness, he has been there for years now. The A's are a better destination for him if he wants to return home, as much as I like his bat. Unfortunately, he's never really had a defensive position that makes sense. I don't know how many times I was frustrated when I had him on my fantasy team, he was regularly removed from the game for defensive purposes.
I like Howry as well. He's the guy I'm hoping the Giants sign next.
Looper I like too, but he's probably priced out of our range, with his record as a starter the past two years, he probably can command a 2-3 year contract at $8-10M per year. But based on his relief work, he would have been a good addition for a good price.
I don't care for Wolf. He was injured and missed extended starts from 2004 to 2007, four seasons, before his full season in 2008. At 32 for next season, he should not get healthier than he was in his late 20's when he was continuously missing games. Plus, he will probably want something similar to Looper, 2-3 years at $8-10M per, which is fine if he threw 200 IP and starts 30+ games, but he's going to miss a lot of starts, and probably will impede Bumgarner's ascension to the starting rotation in the 2010-11 time frame.
I would rather have a one year guy like Johnson or Pedro and take my chances for 2010 and beyond. Probably can get another one year rental next off-season.
Say, speaking of which, what's Greg Maddux's status? He would be good, but I guess the lack of news means he's retired?
I'd love to see Randy Johnson on the Giants. He's still a solid pitcher and would bolster the rotation. Plus, it'd be great to see him get win #300 in a Giants uniform.
What would his price tag be, though? Based on name value alone, he might want $10 mil, though for one year I'd be tempted to give it to him.
FWIW, Looper is said to be seeking a 3-year deal. I like him at 1-year, but I think three is too much.
Who would you rather see every fifth day, Kevin Corriea or Randy Johnson? Wrong, the answer is Renteria every day for the next 2 years!! Sabean is about to throw 9 million a year at a shortstop that Detroit had to pay 3 million to get rid of and they did happily! Don't be surprised if after next week he pulls a houdini at the winter meetings and trades away the farm for Derek Lee or Paul Konerko. Where did I put the number for Giants season tickets... yup, in the garbage where it belongs!!
Pato,
Why so negative? It seems like alot of people have this notion bouncing around their minds that Sabes is out to torpedo the Giants. I praise him for what he has done the last 2 years. Over his tenure with the Giants, he has made tremendous strides as well as some terrible calls but you can't blame him entirely. I think everyone needs to be a little more optimistic and see what happens. Affeldt was a fantastic start and I will be happy to have Renteria on a 2 year contract. Renteria on a 2 year is alot better than Furcal on a 4 year. Please be patient and have faith.
Listen Avila, I appreciate what Sabean did for the Giants organization all those years that Bonds made his job easy for him. We had a good run but it has been over for 5 years now and Sabean still can't figure out how to rebuild this team. He isn't all bad though, the young pitching is great and some of the prospects might pan out but a big part of being a good GM is improving other aspects of your team like OFFENSE which doesn't include signing guys like Roberts, Winn, Rowand, Durham, Aurelia, and even Vizquel the last two years.
Affeldt was a good sign but Renteria is going to take 9 million that could be spent on a starting pitcher (even if Sabean doesn't trade Sanchez or Cain, we still only have 4 starting pitchers). This is Sabeans last year if the team doesn't show significant improvement and I don't think signing an overpaid downside of his career shortstop is going to win us any more games then Burris or other cheaper alternatives.
I agree that Roberts, Rowand, and Durham were bad signings but Winn has performed every year and Aurillia came through for us as a utility infielder. The Giants have already stated that they are not set to a specific salary cap. They claim that it is expandable for the right players and being a big market team, they have money. 2 years of Renteria will not hinder Burriss. I want to see him play everyday but I also want to see more wins. Renteria will not do that by himself, but he probably could produce better numbers than Burriss next year. Burriss is unpolished but shows signs that he can be a league average SS/2B or better. I don't think Sabean has even come close to finishing next years roster.
I think Sabes is on the right path now with the rebuilding project. Remember that the Giants weren't always in rebuilding mode even though they should have been a lot sooner. Our drafts the last 3 years have been fantastic and that is to the credit of Sabes and his scouts.
I disagree with you on the 2007 draft. We had six of the top 51 choices, and we took Charlie Culberson and Jackson Williams - that's not a great draft. The sheer number of choices made the odds of getting a good player, not the skill of the decision-makers.
As for the overall view of Sabean as a manipulator of ML talent, we'll see what he does (or doesn't do) this winter. I remain skeptical, but hope for the best.
OK, let me give you my two cents on Randy Winn and a few of the other acquisitions Sabean has made over the last few years. Randy Winn would be a solid contributor on a good team if he were batting 7th or 8th. Unfortunatly, the Giants are not a good team and had to rely on him batting 3rd most of last season which was a total disaster. You may look at his end of the year stats and say he had a decent year but the time he spent in the 3 hole he was the most unproductive 3 hole hitter in the league. Once he was moved to leadoff and second he started hitting a little more and getting on base and scoring a few runs which is really all you can hope for from him. My biggest problem with Randy is that he makes close to 10 million a year and plays corner outfield which is a spot where you would expect to get a lot more power then he provides.
My problem overall with acquisitions like Randy Winn, Rowand, Roberts, Durham, and Renteria is that they are all similar players that bring similar skills and weaknesses to the lineup. They are also expensive which makes it more difficult for us to make big acquisitions like Tex or Manny or CC because we have money tied up in overpaid roleplayers. I understand that big named offensive players aren't real eager to sign with us because of the ballpark but that is why Sabean should have come up with a better strategy to acquire offensive talent instead of overpaying veteran free agents.
I am not asking for the world from Sabean, I just want him to spend money wisely and take some risks which he has been hesitant to do in the past. Risk starting Burriss at Short and see what happens. Risk trading Cain for Prince knowing that next year we may be weaker at starting pitching but with Alderson and Bumgarner on the fast track we will be even better off in 2010. Risk not making any big moves this offseason if you don't find an impact player that will make a difference and not just fill a hole for two years at a rediculous price. We draft starting pitching every year because Sabean believes it is the hardest commodity to come by but we need middle of the order bats, risk making a trade and letting go of some young pitching if you want this team to get better.
I will agree with you that Randy Winn should not be batting in the 3-4-5-6 holes but it doesnt mean that he hasnt been solid for us. Do you honestly think that our offense would just as good or better without him? No way in hell! I absolutely agree that we should have bigger bats to fill in those holes but they werent there, especially after Bonds was gone.
Lyle,
I cant believe you dropped Culberson and Williams as your point for the 2007 draft not being "a great draft"! As Lefty has pointed out there were some pretty big names in that bunch above those guys. Bumgarner and Alderson may be the future additions to our rotation making it ELITE. In my opinion, if you come out with 2 top prospects out of 6 draft picks, that is a mighty fine draft!
I don't know that the offense could have been much worse then it was last year!! With or without Winn this teams offense is way way below average so it is hard for me to see your point on Winn because how on earth could they have ever been worse?? So to answer your question of whether I honestly believe that our offense would have been just as good or better without Winn... unless you have figured out a way to get negative runs I can't see the offense getting much worse without him! Plus, without him that would free up RF for Schierholtz to either blossom or fall on his face (either result would be progress, as of now we have no clue what his potential is because Winn has been blocking him) and we would have another 10 million to spend this offseason on Tex or Manny!! Yes, I still think Winn is overpaid and overrated!!
Well I respect your opinion even though I do not agree with you. What we do agree on is that we need some bats and that we want to see a playoff contender. Preferably a contender that goes with the youth movement. I will be right there with you blaming Sabes if he does not produce some big bats in our next years lineup. Until then, I will remain optimistic.
>>We had six of the top 51 choices, and we took Charlie Culberson and Jackson Williams - that's not a great draft.
Whoa. You seem to be forgetting something. The Giants also took Bumgarner, Alderson and Noonan. If one year later, the draft class has produced two of the best prospects in baseball, that's a damn good draft. Plus, Noonan isn't blue-chip, but he performed decently in low-A as a 19-yr-old. That's promising.
+1