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When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby | |
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When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby | |
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Giants 40-Man Roster
(w/2010 Salary, if known) PITCHERS
Affeldt (4.5 M)Bumgarner Cain (4.5 M) Hinshaw Joaquin S. Johnson Lincecum J. Martinez Medders (.85 M) Pucetas Romo Runzler J. Sanchez (2.1 M) H. Sosa B. Wilson (4.4 M) Zito (18.5 M) CATCHERS
Molina (4.5 M)
PoseyWhiteside INFIELDERS
BurrissDeRosa (6 M) Downs Frandsen Gillaspie Huff (3 M) Ishikawa Pill Renteria (10 M) Rohlinger F. Sanchez (6 M) Sandoval Uribe (3.25 M) Velez OUTFIELDERS
BowkerFord Lewis Peguero Rowand (13.6 M) Schierholtz Torres OTHER
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That's reassuring. With the Padres situation, I can't help but feel that there's a way to leapfrog from rebuilding to immediatecontention by offering to trade Cain, Lewis, Ishikawa and assorted prospects for Peavy and Adrian Gonzales without gutting the farm.
Will people please stop talking about taking both Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres. Adrian is relatively cheap right now and there has never been a hint of a rumor that he is on the move. I live in San Diego and would love to see him in orange and black but its just never going to happen. Peavy was a possibility but Towers said today that he doesn't see a move being made before the season starting. The Padres were talking 6-1 and 7-1 deals with the Braves and Cubs. The Giants will not do that to get a SP. Plus Cain, Lewis and Ishikawa would barely be enough for Peavy much less BOTH of their star players. Get real people, I'd like to be pimps from Oakland or cowboys from Arizona but it's not Halloween. Grow up Peter Pan!
Though beutiful with the glove, Vizquel killed the offense last year, espescially before the all star break.
Combine improved SS offense with a full year of Sandoval (please, let the hitting he had shown in 2008 be real), and the climb towards league average offense does not seem so daunting.
All we need is Nate Schierholtz to turn into a surprise all-star and we are there!
As someone who does stat work for a career at this point in my life I just wanted to point out that combining good projections is actually a very successful technique...so don't sell yourself short! I've tried using the lineup analysis before and I'm somewhat skeptical of it...
If the Giants can get to 4.4 runs per game it won't put them in the top half of the league, but it will be a significant improvement, and along with the pitching staff should at least give us the first watchable team in years.
I used a much cruder analytical tool a few days ago on McChron:
a) I assume, having the same players at 4 positions (OF + C) will yield basically the same results.
b) I think TI/Phelps is 10-12 runs better than the '08 amalgamation; Frandsen/Velez (I'm assuming Burriss gets a developmental year in AAA) are likewise about 10 runs better than last year's version; Renteria is 20 runs better than Bocozquel; Sando is +15 runs over Castillo and company.
Conclusion: + approx 55 runs (from 640 to 695) or 4.29 runs per game, without figuring in the bench.
The bigger problem is that the defense the Giants put out on the field w/ Renteria at SS, Sandoval at 3B and Franburlez at 2B will be substantially worse than last year, if you can believe that. If may be slightly better offensively, but it won;t be good enough to offset the defensive issues.
Boof,
Substantially worse is an overstatement. The 2Bs will be better then the innings Durham contributed. Sandoval isn't that likely to be worse then Castillo and could be better. Yes, Renteria is worse then Vizquel but Vizquel played less then 50% of the SS innings in 2008. The infield defense will be a little worse but hardly substantially worse.
I agree with rainman. Durham was about as bad as it gets, and Castillo was overrated. If Burriss plays a lot of innings at 2B, he'll be a huge improvement over Durham. Not sure about Frandsen, but my guess is he'll be at least average defensively. Velez....well....never mind.
Renteria is a huge downgrade defensively at SS, perhaps the most important infield position. When paired with Sandoval at 3B, the left side of the infield will be an ground ball sieve. No matter how many time you say it, GRM, Sandoval is a defensive downgrade from Castillo. It's fact. You will see. Watch the pitching staff's ERA & WHIP climb this year.
Chris has a nice post on defense on his Bay City Ball, reminding me that Fangraphs have UZR stats now.
I don't what they all mean exactly, so I'll leave that to those who do, but here are their UZR/150 stats at 3B in 2008:
Castillo: -0.8
Sandoval: 48.5
Like I said, no expert, but that appears to greatly favor Pablito, though admittedly it is small sampling in his case, only 12 games there. Still, it was not like he was a brick glove out there whereas Castillo was not that good.
For comparison, I thought I would look at Pedro Feliz, who was acknowledged as good with the glove, and he had 26.0 the last season with us (again UZR/150) and 9.4 with the Phillies in 2008. Ryan Zimmerman, someone mentioned as a pursuit, had 8.5 last year, which is about the average between 2006 and 2007. Wigginton as Lefty noted the other day, had his best UZR in 2008, but was -52.6, -31.2, and -12.8 the three previous years (again UZR/150) and the one year he played all season at 3B, he had a -14.2.
Oh, these all represents runs and it's roughly 10 runs per win, so Wigginton would cost his team 1.5 wins roughly playing 3B full-time, while Castillo was about average at 3B defensively (just bad offensively), and Sandoval was pretty good.
Also, the prospect book I use rates Sandoval as being average defensively last season, and they projected him as a platoon 1B/3B.
So I don't think it is a forgone conclusion that Sandoval is a defensive downgrade from Castillo, nor that he would be a defensive liability period.
In Renteria's case his UZR/150 has been around 0, plus and minus for a number of years now, whereas Vizquel was about 1.5 wins above average (UZR/150). However, his offense was a lot better than Vizquel's, Renteria had 56.6 wRC versus 13.0 for Vizquel. Doubling Vizquel for a full season would still give Renteria a 30 run advantage still, good for +3 wins, which more than makes up for what Vizquel may or may not have done for us in 2009.
You have to look at the whole picture. And while he's worse than Vizquel defensively, is that really any shame, he's one of the best ever, almost anyone taking over for him is going to result in more balls going through. At least Renteria appears to be around average, then it is not like he's giving up hits that SS on average would get to.
+1
My prospect book listed Frandsen as average for defense at 2B.
I tried the same kind of thing a little while ago: http://www.leftymalo.com/2008/12/take_it_like_a_manny.php#comment-38875
Against LHPs, I got the same kind of numbers that Lefty did (4.44). However, against RHPs, I had us struggling almost as badly as we did last year (4.15). The major differences in the numbers seem to have been with Rowand and Renteria. Both struggled mightily against RHPs last year, and I have their projected splits as (.340 .385) and (.300 .350) respectively. If the Lineup Analysis is right, it doesn't matter so much where you place them in the lineup: they are going to be out-making machines if something doesn't change drastically.
BTW, I used a combo of Bill James, ZIPS, and guesswork to divine my projected splits.
Darn you Lefty!
Darn, darn, darn (insert Herman Munster stomp)
I had just calculated all this same information using the same lineup calculator and everything and was going to write on what that would mean if the Giants were actually able to do what was projected for them.
I would note here that ZIPS projections, which are normally much more conservative (i.e. worse) in their projections, results in the Giants scoring around 4.05 runs with a BurrFran.
I'll just add my conclusion since you "stole" my thunder: if you compile all the pitching stats too, and did a rough Pythagorean between RS and RA, then basically the Giants should be around .500 in 2009 based on the projections and the players we have today.
And if Sanchez has the breakout year that I expect, where he puts it all together like he did for half a season in 2008, then we could be talking 85-87 wins. In addition, if we do get a good 5th starter, say, Randy Johnson, then we should be even better.
It's like what I've been saying, .500 should be expected from the Giants in 2009, more if we get some good breakout performances, whether Sanchez or Sandoval or whomever (or return to goodness, which would be Rowand or Renteria).
>> So I don't think it is a forgone conclusion that Sandoval is a defensive downgrade from Castillo, nor that he would be a defensive liability period.
I pretty much agree with you except Sandoval's UZR is in something like less than 100 innings, which doesn't really mean anything.
Yearly, the best and worst defenders are between -20 and +20 runs. No one is going to defend at +40 runs at 3B. Especially not Pablo.
Castillo's UZR surprised me. Plus/minus had him around -4 runs. I haven't checked out his PMR or RZR ratings.
You can do a quick WAR calculation to see what the Giants are gaining with Renteria vs. Vizquel. I'll do Omar first.
Marcel projects Omar as a .283 wOBA hitter in 2009. League average wOBA in the NL is projected to be around .332.
-2.83 wins on offense
+0.25 wins for positional adjustment (playing SS)
+1 win for defense (We'll call Omar a +10 run defender for next year)
+2 wins for replacement level
----------------------------
+0.42 WAR * (.80 - this is the playing time) = +.37 WAR.
Omar should be worth about +0.3-0.4 wins above replacement. If he signed a FA contract right now, we'd expect him to sign for around $2M.
OK, now let's do Renteria.
Marcel projects him as a .336 wOBA hitter. League average is still set to .332.
+0.23 wins on offense
+0.25 wins for positional adjustment (playing SS)
-0.5 wins for defense (we'll play it safe and say that Renteria will lose a step because of his age. As OGC noted, he's been closer to average over the last 4 years)
+2 wins for replacement level
----------------------------
+1.98 WAR * (.85 - I'm giving Renteria more PA's because he's more likely to play more because of age) = +1.7 WAR
The difference between Renteria and Omar is about 1.3-1.5 wins. That's a nice little upgrade. If Renteria defends closer to average, he'll be worth slightly more than +2 wins. If that happens, he's closer to +1.7 wins better than Omar. Renteria is valued between $7.5-10M per season.
The Giants are a better team with Renteria at SS, but it's actually pretty cool how Omar's glove alone is enough for him to break the replacement level.
Whoops, that was supposedly to be a reply to Martin. Also, I noticed that I had my positional adjustment wrong for SS. Instead of .25 wins it should have been .75 wins.
That moves Omar to: +1.12 WAR, making him worth a little more than $5M on the free market.
Renteria improves to: +2.45 WAR, making him worth about $12M on the free market.
The improvement between them is +1.3 wins.
ELM,
By comparison, what was the numbers for the Phillies last season in terms of average runs scored? Just need a benchmark for your theory.
I'm not sure I understand the question. What are "average runs scored"?
For the record, the Phillies scored 799 runs, tied for second in the NL.
I thought it might be fun to do the same for those evil Dodgers. The results were 4.64 Runs Per Game or 36 more runs for the season then projected for the Giants. I liked it alot better bofore the Dodgers re-signed Furcal when I could put Hu in the starting lineup. It was 4.52 Runs Per Game or only 16 runs a season more then the Giants.
None the less this says the Giants offense is a whole lot closer to the Dodgers offense then most might think.
The Lineups I used were:
With Furcal
Furcal .353/.408
Martin .382/.435
Either .368/.484
Kemp .355/.486
Loney .353/.457
Blake .336/.436
DeWitt .341/.402
Pierre .332/.359
Billingsley .153/.106
Without Furcal
Pierre .332/.359
Martin .382/.435
Either .368/.484
Kemp .355/.486
Loney .353/.457
Blake .336/.436
DeWitt .341/.402
Hu .311/.373
Billingsley .153/.106
I have concluded I selected a different lineup analysis model then you. I selected the 59-04 model and your Giants numbers are clearly from the 98-02 model. The Giants score 4.46 runs/game with the 59-04 model. The Dodgers with Furcal score 4.59 runs/game with 98-02 model and without Furcal they score 4.47 runs/game with the 98-02 model.
The difference is even smaller then I first thought. The Dodgers with Furcal score .17 runs/game or 28 runs/season more then the Giants. Without Furcal they score just .05 runs/game or 8 runs/season more then the Giants.
Again, the problem is that these stats don't tell the whole story. Depite the fact that your stats say that the Dodgers don't score that many more runs, the reality is that their defense is so far beyond the Giants defense. Therefore, no matter how many trumped up stats you want to bring up, the Dodgers are still a much better team than the Giants right now. The comparison is not that close. Defensively, there isn't a position on the entire field that the Giants have a better player than the Dodgers. Stack 'em up man-for-man and that is readily apparent.
Martin > Molina
Loney > Ishirilia
Dewitt > Franelez
Furcal > Renteria
Blake > Sandoval
Pierre = Lewis
Kemp > Rowand
Ethier = Winn
Even in the unlikely event that our offense is about equal to the Dodgers, their pitching is on par with the Giants and their defense is much, much better. Ergo, they are the better team right now.......no matter what your stats say.
Lest Year according to UZR from Fangraphs the Giants had the 6th best NL Defense while the Dodgers had the 3rd worst.
http://www.fangraphs.com/teams.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&type=0&season=2008&month=0
What is it you see that has improved the Dodgers defense and/or impacted negatively the Giants defense enough to reverse this?
According To Fangraphs UZR/150
Loney -7.9 vs Ishikawa -2.1#
DeWitt -17.3 vs Velez -3.2
Blake -5.4! vs Sandoval ?
Furcal +0.3@ vs Renteria +1.1
Pierre +2.2 vs Lewis +5.6
Kemp -6.7 vs Rowand -11.1
Either -6.4 vs Winn +17.3
! Used 2008 combined numbers from Cleveland and LA
@ Used 2007 number because 2008's -11.6 just 36 games
# Used all 39 Career Games rather then +4.2 in 2008
? I don't believe 2008's +48.5 either
This evidence clearly points to the Giants defense being way better then Dodgers defense!
By the way these add up to a 30.6 run advantage for the Giants defense (asuming Sandoval also -5.4 like Blake).
This is about the same as the 28 run advantage the Dodgers have on offense and says pitching should be the deciding factor.
This all changes if the Dodgers re-sign Manny. The Giants defensive advantage will increase but nowhere near as much as the Dodgers offensive advantage will increase. Personlly I am hoping the RedSox sign Teixeria resulting in the Angels and Yankees fighting for Manny thus leaving the Dodgers wanting.
Do you actually watch players play? Are you seriously trying to argue that Velez is a better defender than DeWitt? Or that Renteria is better than Furcal?
I don't need stats to see who the better defensive players are. I can see it with my own 2 eyes and so can anyone else. It's just ludicrous to say that the Giants defense is going to be better than the Dodgers defense. The results are obvious on the field of play. If the Giants had a decent defense, they might have challenged in the pathetic NL West last year. In case you didn't notice, they weren't even close. I can't believe I'm even arguing this point.
Just what I thought. You have no backup. Yes, I do watch them play and my eyes tell me the Giants defense is better then the Dodgers. Guess what? The stats agree with my eyes and not yours.
Yeah, I guess you're right. I'll ignore real results on the field and believe some arcane statistical analysis instead. That makes sense. Sorry I even brought it up.
What you are believing is your preconceptions and biases. What you are ignoring are the "real results" as measured by state of the art statistical analysis.
I am anonymous above. I just forgot to fill in name.
No, I choose to believe what I see on the field of play, just like any good baseball executive or scout would do. I trust my judgement much more than some impersonal statistics that may or may not be telling you the whole story. good baseball people look at statistics, but they put them in context with what they see on the field. It's a part of the story, not the entire story. But you go ahead and believe whatever the hell you want to believe. There are plenty of misguided people out there too.
I agree that stats are just one piece of the puzzle. The eyes of the experts do matter. I also agree that you and I can see some things with our own eyes but I further believe that neither of us have the expertise to make an actual valid judgement based solely on what we see with our non professional eyes.
I think this same limitation applies to the media as well. I tend to treat with great skepicism all quotes in the media on this from "anonymous professional sources". I just don't value the opinion of someone not willing to have his personal reputation tied to his opinion. I am also not sure I can actually trust the media that they are not just "enhancing" their own personal view by falsely claiming it came from an anonymous professional source.
This leaves me with the non anonymous professional sources and stats as the sources I trust most to make these judgements while appling my eyes as only a smell test to these.
My view is that you are letting your preconceptions and biases get in the way of this and thus only seeing with your eyes that which supports what you already believe based on these preconceptions and biases. I suspect the media is the primary source of your preconceptions and biases.
Could I be wrong? Yes. Could you be right? Yes. But I think the evidence available supports that it is more likely that you are wrong and I am right. I am however open to all arguements you want to make that go beyond your trust in your own eyes.
Well, let me clue you in, you are wrong.
Here whe agree that the two pitching staffs are about equal as they stand now. But If the Giants sign Randy Johnson the advantage here will clearly swing the Giants way.
In my opinion (yes I know not yours) this will also give the Giants the advantage overall which would put pressure on the Dodgers to make another move. I have no doubt that the Dodgers would make another move. I am just hoping that Teixeria signs with Boston so that the Yankees feal they have to respond and add Manny leaving the Dodgers with questionable options for that next move.
Why did this reply post here? I was replying to Boof's reply to Peter. Lefty it looks like you might hav ea bug here you need to report and get fixed.
Thanks, for now on I will just check with you and ingore all other input this disagrees with you.
Boof, how can you say the Dodgers have equivalent pitching to the Giants??? Billingsley broke his leg, they lose Brad Penny and Derek Lowe and Saito is obviously gone. So that leaves their starting pitchers at Kershaw, hurt Billingsley, Kuroda, then what.
We have the current Cy Young, and two young guns with Cain and Sanchez. Zito does suck, but think the added bullpen arms makes are relievers a notch ubove the Dodgers...
Brian Wilson is arguably a better closer than Broxton...
Billingsley will be recovered by the time the season rolls around. He may be a little behind, conditioning wise, at the start of the season, but that should be it. Billingsley, Kuroda & McDonald are not that far off of Lincecum, Cain & Sanchez. Both teams need to fill out the rest of of their rotations (with the Giants having Zito as one of theirs), so it's hard to totally tell who has got the better rotation. Right now, you have to give an edge to the Giants. The Dodgers bullpen, last year wa smuch better than the Giants. The Giants have improved over the off season, but I'm not convinced that it's going to end up better than the Dodgers. Wilson had more saves than Broxton, but I'm not convinced that he's the better closer. Wilson still walks too many batters and refuses to pitch inside, which would make him more effective. All of those reasons combined is why I think the two pitching staffs are realtively equal.
Let's see if this will post as a reply to the correct Boof post this time.
Here whe agree that the two pitching staffs are about equal as they stand now. But If the Giants sign Randy Johnson the advantage here will clearly swing the Giants way.
In my opinion (yes I know not yours) this will also give the Giants the advantage overall which would put pressure on the Dodgers to make another move. I have no doubt that the Dodgers would make another move. I am just hoping that Teixeria signs with Boston so that the Yankees feal they have to respond and add Manny leaving the Dodgers with questionable options for that next move.
Well, it worked this time so I have no idea why it didn't work the last time.
I meant Kershaw, not McDonald. Although McDonald looks like he is going to be very good.