As I mentioned earlier today, I’d like to take a closer look at Bruce Bochy’s tentative 2009 opening day lineup. This is what he drew up on the back of a cocktail napkin for reporters in Vegas:
RF Winn
SS Renteria
3B Sandoval
C Molina
LF Lewis
CF Rowand
1B Ishikawa
2B Burriss/Frandsen/Velez
Before I begin, let me also repeat my doubt that Sabean has given up on trades, which seems to be the tenor of the coverage from Vegas. Sabathia has signed with the Yankees, Teixeira will sign somewhere, and as a few more dominoes fall, the trade market will start to shake out. It might take all winter or into the spring, but I’m willing to make small wagers based on the purchase of friendly beverages that what you see above is not what you get April 7.
But let’s assume for now this is what we get. The first big change from last year is Winn leading off and Lewis batting fifth. Winn has a career .347 OBP; Lewis .359. Winn posted a career high in ‘08 with .363 and he also had a great year on the basepaths, with 25 steals in 27 attempts. Do that again, and the Giants have a first-division lead off guy. How likely is he to repeat that at the age of 35? Projections say not very.
As for Lewis, the Giants and many others think he could add a lot more power to his game if he gets out of the leadoff spot and becomes more aggressive. Lewis can hit the ball a long way, for sure. He’s crushed homers into areas of the Mays Field RF arcade that few others have reached. But would being more aggressive also take a bite out of his on-base skills? Is it worth him hitting 20 home runs if he’s only getting on base — pick a number — 33% of the time, instead of his career 36% mark? In a full season, that’s roughly 18 to 20 more times on base. I’ll leave that as an open question and math problem for now.
The second item of note is Pablo Sandoval, third baseman. He’s now penciled in, just as the Giants have done with Dan Ortmeier at first, Manny Burriss at short, and Sandoval himself at first base, just a couple months ago. Obviously we’ll take this with a big grain of salt. Sandoval could be very good with the bat, though I’m not convinced that his ability to hit anything will translate into the ability, long-term, to hit well. Add to that an unknown but likely defensive deficit, and it’s possible the bad from his glove will wipe out the good from his bat. I’m not saying don’t do it, but I really think the Giants will work hard to find a better option between now and April.
Rowand hitting sixth makes more sense. Molina hitting cleanup again is, um, disappointing.
The last point: Bochy’s lineup would — should — change against lefty starters. If Josh Phelps wins a job, he’ll probably get the chance to platoon with Ish, who could come in for late-inning D if the Giants were ahead. Sandoval’s major-league splits against lefties this year were abysmal. So were his minor-league splits. There’s no evidence so far he can hit left-handed pitching, which is probably why Sabean mentioned this week he might go after Rich Aurilia; Richie is very good against lefties. (Last year: .903 OPS, career: .836 OPS.) The Giants will probably cut Pablo some slack against lefties, but if he’s scuffling badly, the team will need a 3B platoon option on the roster.
Here’s an alternate lineup vs. LHP:
LF Lewis
RF Winn
SS Renteria (check out his career splits)
C Molina
1B Phelps
CF Rowand
3B Sandoval (Aurilia?)
2B Frandsen/Burriss/Velez
And still: Blech. C.C. has dashed the distant dreams of a rotation so good it doesn’t need an offense. The Giants need an offense, and it’s foolish to pin the hope on lineup tinkering and near-miraculous improvement of the current roster.
What do you think of Bochy’s lineup? Do you think Sabean is done dealing? Discuss.
