Hey, it was either that or "United Unitarianism." A couple days ago I crunched mad numbers and speculated that, with one more strong hitter, the Giants could have something that resembled a league-average offense. No one has yet called me an idiot. Not for that post, at least.
Let's go a step further and see what adding Randy Johnson, for whom Brian Sabean keeps confessin' the man-crush, would mean for the Giants. Before we get into the numbers, let's acknowledge that adding the Big Unit could backfire if the 44-year-old loses a lot of time to injury, as he did in 2007.
But he made 30 starts last year, and the reward of a healthy Johnson -- heh -- is a much better than average pitcher who still strikes out nearly a batter an inning. Plus, there's the marketing bonus of him hitting the 300-win milestone in a Giant uniform. (He's at 295.)
Given all these possibilities, let me offer a creative contract solution. Keep in mind the rumor mill had Johnson willing to take a pay cut to stay with Arizona, but not the type of cut Arizona was thinking ($3 million). So offer a base of $5-7 million with incentives to reach $10-12 million. On top of that, acknowledge his gate appeal by offering a cut of the ticket sales when he pitches. The Giants will market the crap out of "The Road to 300," or whatever, and Johnson will get a little extra from it. It's basically the same as appearance-based incentives, and unless it's half the gate, probably more a gimmick than a significant chunk of change. But it's the form of it -- an acknowledgment he's important to the team and to the fans -- that might appeal to Johnson. Not as a substitute for a few million in incentives, but as a sweetener, and as a subtle way to say, hey, if you sign with Oakland, you won't be pitching in front of 40,000. And if you sign with the Dodgers, you, uh... you won't be pitching in front of anyone after the 7th inning. And you'll suck.
As for crunching numbers, the two projections I used earlier this week for hitters, Marcel and Bill James, have different reads on RJ '09. The lesser of the estimates is Marcel (4.33 ERA, 158 IP, 140 K -- or for those who like the new stats, a 4.11 FIP), and as this guy notes, that's still good enough to make him worth $15 million on a one-year deal. That sounds too expensive, but I buy all my pants second-hand, so what the hell do I know. I'm pretty sure the winner of the Unit sweepstakes won't come near $15 M.
So what would this mean for the Giants rotation? Here's a list of 2008 NL starting pitchers ranked by FIP. Lincecum is 1st. Cain is 18th. The Big Unit is 13th. If you slotted the '09 Marcel projections into that list, Lincecum (3.10) and Cain (3.79) would be top-15, Johnson would be at or near the top-20. Wait, let's not forget Jonathan Sanchez. His FIP last year (3.85) was much better than his ERA (5.01), and FIP-wise he's projected to do nearly the same in '09, which means if he doesn't tire down the stretch, he could have a breakout year (which Martin the OGC rightly loves to point out on this blog and his own).
So if the Giants nab the Unit and keep Sanchez, they could have four of the league's top-25 starters. And one of the ugliest.
