When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.12.2009
Depth Perception

It's been a long time since the Giants traded a good veteran for a passel of prospects, a full-blown rebuilding move. How long? How about never, does that work for you?

At least not since Brian Sabean took charge in late 1996 -- I thought going back through Sabean's trade record would yield a restocking of the shelves or two, nothing as dramatic as what Billy Beane pulled off with the Dan Haren, Nick Swisher, Joe Blanton purges of the past year, but something.

Um, Russ Ortiz for Damian Moss and Merkin Valdez?

You have to go back to the Matt Williams trade, Sabean's first, for a jaw-dropper, but everyone who came back was a major-leaguer. (For those of you still in knee pants, this was the "I am not an idiot" trade that brought Jeff Kent, Jose Vizcaino and Julian Tavarez to the Giants.)

This is a man, and this is an organization, that stubbornly, proudly, adamantly refuses to trade away veterans near peak value for a bunch of unproven whippersnappers. There are many reasons: suspicion about prospects; perennial contention that gave the team no reason to rebuild; and, in more recent years, veterans with burdensome contracts and limited talent who wouldn't fetch a bundle of prospects in return.

The reason I write this, and the reason I went back to look at Sabean's trade record, was organizational depth. (Do burdensome thoughts on your favorite team's organizational depth keep you up at night? You might be suffering from what some call total baseball geekwad syndrome, or TBGS. Ask your doctor if El Lefty Malo is right for you.)

Yes, nice crop of young fellas in A-ball this year, blah blah blah, but the Giants are seriously lacking in upper minor strength. Schierholtz, Sandoval, Burriss, and Frandsen are all getting their shots at the show this year (or should), leaving AAA to the Scott McClains of the world. If they flame out en masse, it's going to be at least a year, maybe two or three, 'til the next reinforcements arrive. Some of the problem has been solved intelligently by signing Randy Johnson and Edgar Renteria to short contracts, giving the organization more breathing space for guys like Burriss and Kevin Pucetas. Last year's situation, which felt like an audition for High School Musical 5, will not be repeated this year. Unless, and I'm typing this with my fingers and toes crossed, the team suffers a rash of injuries -- injurious rashes? -- and before you know it it's all inexperienced hands on deck again.

In other words, it might be a fun soup this year, but it's still thin. Real depth would make me feel better, not a third base depth chart that looks like this:

1) Roly-poly guy who has barely played third professionally.
2) Guy who sproinged his achilles' tendon and missed all of 2008, before which he wasn't a good third baseman.
3) Rich Aurilia, if he doesn't mind waiting 'til March 15 for a job.

Wouldn't it be nice to have "Super studmuffin who should eat the PCL for lunch this year" somewhere on that list?

The problem is, the only player on the 40-man roster other than Tim Lincecum who would return a premium bounty of prospects -- say, one blue chipper plus a couple others -- is Matt Cain. Randy Winn or Bengie Molina might pry loose a promising youngster from a team that's desperate for a CF or decent catcher, especially in June or July. But now the Giants think they'll be one of those teams this summer. And with draft picks now a prized possession, they might be more inclined to hold on and let the veterans walk when their contracts expire.

The questions to you are these: With the Giants' moves this off-season and the suddenly cheap free agent labor in general, do the Giants really need to restock the pipeline? Are you worried about their depth? Are you genetically prospect-phobic or prospect-centric? What theoretical scenario tingles your pringles more: the idea of trading Matt Cain for Prince Fielder, or Matt Cain for five prospects who will make the upper reaches of the farm system instantly respectable? Please note this is not advocacy for such a trade. I'm just askin'.


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19 Comments

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Definitely worry about the lack of organizational depth. We really don't have that many people who are going to play in the majors. We just don't. We also don't have positional depth in the majors. Or pitching depth. We don't have depth anywhere. We have some solid players, but no solid backups. I'd love to get some more from a trade, but unfortunately, like you say, we don't really have anyone to trade besides Cain. And I don't think we have the pitching depth to trade him right now. Maybe in a couple years. I hope.

Sanchez for Michael Young and stick Renteria at third base, problem solved! I would also trade Winn or pretty much anyone else not named Lincecum or Cain for Young but I don't think the Rangers want anything to do with any position players from the Giants. Texas is starved for pitchers though and who knows, maybe if we throw them a few prospects and Sanchez or even Cain, we could pry Young and Crash Davis off their hands!

Ain't going to work. The Rangers have already said that a Young deal will be made only for a young 3B, something the Giants don't have.

whats with the negativity Boof?? Next you're going to tell me that my super idea of trading Winn and Ishikawa for Hanley and Uggla isn't gonna fly either! How about Winn for Fielder straight up? Or maybe Burris and Rohlinger for Brandon Phillips??? I got more a lot more where those came from...

Not negative. Just reporting what was released.

"The team is seeking a young third baseman in any trade for Young, sources said, creating the possibility of a deal with the White Sox, who could offer Josh Fields, or the Angels, who could offer Brandon Wood. "

From Ken Rosenthal http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/9064498/Source:-SS-Young-asks-for-trade-from-Rangers

Sabean's fixation on veteran savvy is certainly not news, but it's good to harp on it. It's a real handicap for him. Moneyball was the wave of the late 90s, Kiddieball or Grow-Your-Own-Ball is the current wave, and the Giants are still waxing their board. We might be in position in 2-3 years: with Alderson and Bumgarner burning it up, we can trade a Cy Young winner for a passel of prospects. Yeah, it's heresy now, but you gotta have both vision and cojones. But who knows? Maybe we're witnessing the start of the Hungy-Vet-Working-Hard-For-A-One-Year-Deal wave??

5 years and $95M for a seriously declining middle infielder that refuses to consider changing positions? It is darn hard to match Zito’s contract for futility and franchise hindering but Young just might achieve that.

I would think about Zito for Young. Not unless hell has put Spec Richardson in charge of the front office again should we do Sanchez (or any possibly useful young player at the MLB level) for him.

Unless Lincecum signs a Pedroia-like long-term deal, we will be trading him in what, mid-2011? (I can't remember when he is eligible for free agency.) Sort of like the Twins with Johan Santana. I sure hope (1) we sign him or (2) we have someone at GM other than Sabean at that time. Sorry to mention the unmentionable, but trading a Cy Young winner for 7 prospects is what you are talking about, no? Speaking of those blockbusters--do they work? I mean, does the team who gets 7 youngsters get better? Or should they have kept the superstar?

The other option is to hope FA prices keep falling over the next few years and we can keep plugging holes with short-term deals until some of our far-off youth can be ML-ready. As you say, we are pretty damn thin on the depth chart.

Lincecum should be a free agent after the 2013 season.

A year or two ago, I would have been on board with making a deal for prospects. But now, not so much...
People criticize the barry bonds giants for always stockpiling with veterans. But you can't overlook the lack of top-flight starting pitching we had, the type that teams outside of Boston and New York need to be true contenders. Sure, Schmitt was great, but who was our number two?
Our only tradeable commodities are our starting pitchers, and trading them could not possibly help our 5-year plan. The farm system is healthier than its been in years. As we wait for the Villalonas and Poseys of the world to get ready, fill in the holes with veterans. We're not as far away as some people think. Maybe a "somebody-being-somebody" away...

I think the question should be rather asked, who has been successful with trading established vets for a passel of young unproven players. Andy LaRoche was a sure-thing at 3B and Homer Bailey a sure thing starting pitcher, but both has fizzled thus far in the majors.

I can call to mind the Hanley Ramirez trade as one that worked for the trading away team. The A's have a mixed record for Hudson and Mulder, horrible for Hudson, but Mulder spawned off Haren, which resulted in another big trade. Santana was traded for a bundle of players that hasn't been so good so far (but Twins really blew that one by waiting instead of getting something good out of either the Yankees or Red Sox). I am sure there are others but none come to mind quickly. Would be an interesting research project.

In Giants history, we have the Vida Blue trade that worked out well for us, and then we traded him to the Royals and that worked out for us because we got Atlee Hammaker. The Jack Clark trade worked out well for the Cards (we ultimately ended up with Jose Uribe for Clark, not a really fair payment for Jack the Ripper).

Not strictly a bundle of prospects, but we have been burned by trading Gaylord Perry for Suddenly Sad Sam McDowell, and George Foster for some utility guy. We also traded Dave Kingman for $100,000. And we gave up a young guy for an old guy, Speier for Foli. I assume there are others....

At least the Twins got something for Santana. Sabean refused to get anything for Schmidt when the opportunity was ripe.

>>I think the question should be rather asked, who has been successful with trading established vets for a passel of young unproven players.

This is a key question. I vaguely remember seeing a story about this somewhere, at some point. Anecdotally, we can think of example of each side winning, or in some cases, both sides winning. (The Giants arguably won the "White Flag" trade, in which they traded 6 or 7 prospects for three pitchers who helped them win the division in '97.)

That's because Sabean thought they were contenders in 2006. The division was so bad that the Giants actually were in 1st place for a day in the week before the trading deadline. They then lost 9 straight and by then it was too late to do an unblocked deal for Schmidt (whose arm -- and career -- happened to have 2 months' life left). [Stupid weak NL West -- the same predicament led to Sabean's unloading of J. Accardo for Shea Hillenbrand.]

And if you really believe that, I've got some excellent deals for you for some undeveloped land in Florida. The Giants were not serious contenders in 2006. That was just an egregious error on Sabean's part not to cash him in when he had the chance. The "we were still in it" argument was a total falsehood.

nice article man. good points. that matt williams trade killed me...and in the end i loved it!

matt cain is currently my favorite giant...so i guess if that happened to me again..something would have to give!

I think the lack of org depth at 3rd is not really a problem beyond this year as there will be many FA hot corner options, Beltre, Blalock, Encarnacion, Chad Tracy, and many more i'm forgetting. I'm willing to have Sandoval at 3rd on Bengie Catching days and having Aureilla back him up vs. Left handers. The pitching depth is great and 2nd and SS are solid, if not spectacular.

Hey, I changed my mind. If we can get multiple hot prospects for Cain I am all for it. We're not going to win this year anyway. I was still thinking of the trade as identical to a Cain-for-Bat trade, which doesn't make sense. But if we can trade Cain and get some ammo for the future? Let's do it.

I cannot help but think it all comes down to Lowry's health. If he regains form from 2007 then we have a stellar starting staff of six. Little word on his recovery, however, which leads me to think maybe all is not well. Strange injury that could be a creer ender. I hope thats not the case. But with lowry firing, options open up and we could deal either him or Sanchez and Roland and/or Winn somewhere and get a nice return.

As far as this year goes, I would rather give the young guys the chance rather than siginng Crede who, as it stands now, would be as great or greater, a risk/unknown than Pablo. He has really had only one decent year, other than that he's a .253 hitter with a very sore back.

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