Baseball Prospectus last weekend posted an interview well worth reading. The interviewee is
Tony Blengino, a new addition to the Seattle Mariners' front office. He runs their newly created Department of Statistical Research and has much to say about the mix of scouts 'n' stats, the way front offices make decisions, defensive metrics, the projection of college and minor league players, and much much more. Go, subscribe, read. I've excerpted a wee few bits and added my own commentary as I feel it relates to the Giants.
I think that defense is very underrated, still. I think
that player salaries over probably the last quarter century have been so tied to
offense, and defense only in the last few years has really begun to be paid
attention to on a large scale...So I do believe that defense is
undervalued in the marketplace, and a good way to pick up additional wins for
your club is to go out and try to significantly improve your defense. How long
will that continue to be an area of opportunity? Who knows, but if people
suddenly fully value defense, that means they're going to start to undervalue
something else.
Do the Giants know defense? Are they using the right tools to measure it? How much is a player's offense a counterweight?
If defense was uber-important, they might have brought back for one year Omar Vizquel, who even in a diminished 42-year-old state could probably out-glove Edgar Renteria. But they probably realized they couldn't afford a position player whose offensive skills lie somewhere between Barry Zito and Noah Lowry.
A similar internal debate no doubt is raging about third base. Do the Giants dare let Pablo Sandoval have the bulk of the innings at the hot corner and risk what could be excruciating defense? (Sure, Pablo's a great athlete, but are the major leagues a place to learn a brand-new position?) Problem is, as we know, there's no one else in house. Kevin Frandsen apparently isn't an option. Ryan Rohlinger looked lost at the plate last year. Scott McClain is an emergency AAAA call-up. Rich Aurilia would make a nice utility infielder on a cheap one-year deal, but his defense won't be much improvement.
That's why the Joe Crede rumors won't die. (Here's one -- just scroll down past the MannyMannyMannyManny.) There's too much defensive upside if a healthy Crede can take the bulk of the innings in the field. A healthy Crede would probably hit like David Bell in his one year in S.F. Or, if you prefer, like Pedro Feliz with a slightly better eye at the plate. Sandoval will not be blocked. Between Bengie Molina's days off and the wide-open job at first base, Pablo will get plenty of ABs in 2009.
More from Blengino:
...the farther away from the major leagues data
is, the more you have to take it with a grain of salt. If you're in Double- or
Triple-A and are young for your league, and you're performing, you have a pretty
good chance to be a successful major league player. If you're in A-ball, there
are some hoops you have to jump through; going from High-A to Double-A is a big
difference-maker for me. In college, if you're a lights-out performer really
standing out in some key statistical areas, then you've got indicators for
success, but you're such a long way away that you can't get too excited about
it.
This is fairly obvious, I guess, but it's good to remind ourselves that A-ball superstars are not major-league shoo-ins. Before we write The MadBum, Angel Villalona, Tim Alderson and Nick Noonan (not even an A-ball star) onto the 2011 major-league roster, let's see how they fare in Double-A. (I believe both Alderson and Bumgarner will start there this year.) Same caveat with Buster Posey, who was a "lights-out performer" in college. Add these general rules of thumb to the previous assessment of the equivalent talent levels of the fall leagues (Arizona = AA/AAA, Hawaii = High A/AA, roughly speaking), and the vague outlines of prospecthood start to fill in a bit more.
One more tidbit:
...every organization uses statistics in some manner.
There are probably 10 where there is a heavy influence, 10 in which there is a
significant amount of input but it isn't a critical-mass type of input, and
there may be 10 where statistics have relatively little weight. But I guarantee
you that all 30 teams use statistical analysis in some manner, and that all of
them probably have for a longer period of time than people would want to admit.
Most statheads would assume the Giants are in that bottom third. Sabean made snarky comments about
Moneyball -- perhaps because Michael Lewis described him as "master of the dry hump" -- and it's been generally assumed that he's been stuck in a swamp of RBI-and-runs-and-wins-good! primitivism all these years. (Side note:
this is a counterintuitive piece that wondered if Sabes actually put
Moneyball principles to use in the pursuit of older players.)
It's probably an unfair assessment, but truth is he hasn't tried hard to dispel it. Perhaps he uses the ill reputation to his advantage. (If so, it hasn't shown up in the Giants' on-field results.) One of the greatest mysteries about the Giants is how much they know, how do they know it, and how do they use it. They are excellent evaluators of pitching talent, that's for sure, but that seems based more on scouting. Everyone saw Lincecum's numbers and knew he was a beast in college, but the Giants looked past what nine other teams thought were serious mechanical flaws.
Sabean loves to play things close to the vest, and when he doesn't, he's often erratic enough (Manny Burriss: 2009 Starting Shortstop!) that it's hard to take his definitive pronouncements, well, definitively.
Is there someone in the bowels of Mays Field, hunched over a laptop crunching advanced defensive metrics and sworn to secrecy? If you're out there, Director of Giants' Statistical Research (Non-Dry Humping and Tire Kicking Division), drop me an email; I promise I won't tell. I just want to know.
Great post. The way the new regime in Seattle speaks (GM Zduriencik, Blengino, manager Wakamatsu) shows evidence of impressive, modern, quant-based thinking. It's refreshing. If anyone reading this is in Seattle, the blogs USS Mariner and Lookout Landing are hosting an event tomorrow at which Blengino is a featured guest.
As for the Giants: By giving the impression that they are not taken with advanced statistical analysis, the Giants allow their fan base and the beat-coverage media to cling to the old ways. By the time Beane turned the A's around (early 2000s), A's fans calling in to the post-game show were conversant with analytical tools like OBP and pitch counts. That still doesn't happen on KNBR, and on the occasion that Henry Schulman mentions a player's OPS in a Chron article, he has to explain what it is, and that's only after he's discussed BA/HR/RBI.
Didn't the Giants have a contest a couple years ago to hire a stat-based intern? I remember thinking that if they were treating statistical analysis as a lark, there was no hope.
I bet they sign Crede - makes too much sense. They slide Pablo to 1st and have a decent bat to hit cleanup or 5th. Makes the infield defense that much better and Crede will probably play for cheap on a 1-year deal to pump his stats (though they will not be all great hitting at Mays Field). He's Rowand's best bud and we almost got him last year. I almost like it, but the guy has back issues.
Apparently the Giants have had a statistician on staff for 15 years or so. Question is of course whether Sabes paid him or her any attention...
link (about 3/4 of the way down the post)
Nice post, as usual.
I believe the Giants will still consider Frandsen for 3B, assuming some vet 3B isn't signed, but because of his injury have downplayed the role he might play in 2009. I believe they will let it all play out in spring training and rubic's cube it based on who showed more during spring training.
I think the reason the rumors won't die is because the Giants appear willing to sign someone if it's at their price. Much like how the Pirates signed both Lofton and Sanders for $1M one season.
I simply don't believe that Crede's price will fall enough for the Giants to jump in. The Giants are probably looking for one year and probably not even as much as they offered for Feliz last off-season, given Crede's back problems, I would think a small base plus bonuses for PA reached would be the type of contract they would offer. That doesn't sound like what Boras would be willing to do, though with spring training coming soon, maybe his tune will change.
I think the apt visual of this is of Sabean as a vulture, circling around for a player's agent to fall down dead and flying down to feed. Especially given the fact that, as ELM reported in another post, the Giants are basically above their budget of low
I agree that prospects are not shoo-ins, particularly when still below AA, but they are still that suspect even if in AA or AAA. Look at Anthony Reyes, Homer Bailey, Sean Burroughs, all "sure things" who did well at high levels, but have not been able to put it together in the majors in their first tries.
Still, in spite of that, I think we have enough evidence to suspect that MadBum, Timmy 2, AnVil, Noonan, and Buster will probably have some role in the majors.
And when you dominated a level the way MadBum did, I think that shows plenty, A-level or not.
People might not remember, but the Giants had a statistician way back in the 70's: Ralph Nelson. He rose up with the Giants and I thought he might make GM some day, but then was part of the group who helped put together the Arizona Diamondbacks. I would think that the Giants had some sort of statistics department over the past 30+ years then, just the extent of it would be what I would wonder about.
I was glad that they finally confirmed it, but want to note that the exact quote is that they have a mathematician on staff doing statistical analysis, not a statistician.
And since that person has been with the team for 15 years, my guess is that this person replaced Ralph Nelson in the purge of personnel that happened after the Magowan-led ownership took over, leading to Nelson being free (along with other former Giants of the Humm Baby era purged as well) to join the D-backs.
Regarding Burriss, I still think people are mis-reading what Sabean said. He didn't say that Burriss was the starting SS for the 2009 Giants, he said that Burriss would be the incumbent heading into spring training, meaning that he could lose his job with poor play in spring training (or, as what happened, poor play in the AFL).
On Lincecum, I think it was also his size that turned off a lot of teams and which was a reason some analysts thought that even if Lincecum fell to the Giants, that they would instead pick a big hunky pitcher like Daniel Bard instead, who fit the mold of the type of pitchers Sabean and Tidrow like.
Crede has a bad back. Pre-injury he was an excellent defender but last year he made 20 errors in only 97 games. That is beyond horrendous.
If his only really redeeming feature is his glove and his glove is now suspect, why take the risk on even a 1 year deal?
"if people suddenly fully value defense, that means they're going to start to undervalue something else."
nothing could be more untrue. Why if we value D does something else have to be undervalued?
What ever happened to the sign and trade? Beltre for our club is the best fit. With FA $ coming down maybe he'd take a two year extension and trade to the G men. The M's would probably do it for Sanchez (damn we missed a golden opportunity to deal with the M's when Bavasi was still there) and while I'm not in a hurry to get rid of Sanchez I know Beltre's D with our pitching, in our park and his O would really be what we need.
I'd take him if he passes a physical for a year. He can still hit. We need a guy with some pop bad. I shudder to think of starting two rookies at first and third. With Pablo and Renteria on the left side we're doomed defensively. I would rather plop Pablo at first and get a good defender at third. ELM, can Frandsen play good defense at third?
"Sure, Pablo's a great athlete, but are the major leagues a place to learn a brand-new position?"
I recall seeing Pablo play for SK in 2005. If I recall correctly he played almost the full year at 3rd so it isn't a brand-new position for him. Two things I recall about him was his strong throws to first and his temper. He got quite angry with himself each time he grounded or struck out.