Let's inject more numbers into the Manny discussion. First, recall from yesterday that BP's John Perotto says the Giants are mulling an offer of two different contract structures for Manny Ramirez. The first is larded with incentives and options, the second seems straightforward -- three years, $63 M.
The first one is too opaque for numerical discussion, so let's focus on the second. If it's paid out evenly at $21 M a year, it could easily put the Giants over $120 M in 2009. (Payroll was $73 M before the free agent signings. Affeldt, Howry, Renteria and Johnson make it $97 M. Incentives for Howry, Johnson and others could push it over $100 M.)
As noted in the last thread's comments, a lot of money falls off the payroll in 2010. But the gap closes quickly with the theoretical Manny contract. It would bump them close to $80 M, and that's before a potential Lincecum long-term deal or an exercise (at this point unlikely) of Lowry's $6.25 M option.
(For more future payroll analysis, McGrant does some astute post-Affeldt but pre-Howry moneyballin' here. The "crazy contract" he postulates is attached to the CC rumors, but it serves just as well for the three-year Manny speculation.)
If the Giants don't sign Manny, there's still a looming question about the outfield. In 2010, it could be Lewis, Rowand and Schierholtz from left to right. Schierholtz could become a legitimate, frightening power hitter whose lefthandedness laughs and spits at the deep Mays Field dimensions (just like on this night); and Rowand could revisit his best power years, giving the Giants a lot of punch in the outfield.
Anyone who believes in both those scenarios, please raise your hand.
There are no quick fixes in the farm system. Of the team's top prospects, few are outfielders. Fewer are anywhere close to the majors. (This list has one OF, and he's 17 years old. The McCoven's community list is high on Roger Kieschnick, but his chance of grabbing a roster spot in 2010 is barely worth mentioning. Disagree if you wish.)
In other words, if not Manny, then someone else needs to provide this team in the next two years with genuine middle-of-the-order right-handed power. It won't be Aaron Rowand, it won't be Pablo Sandoval (unless he's got more switch-hitting magic than he's shown so far), it won't be Kevin Frandsen, it won't be Buster Posey, and it probably won't be Josh Phelps, and the fact that Phelps is the only one on this list who merits a slight benefit of the doubt is a scary thing, indeed.
This isn't an argument for Manny, but it's an acknowledgment that the Giants desperately need what he's got.
