When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.05.2009
More of Manny's Many Monies

Let's inject more numbers into the Manny discussion. First, recall from yesterday that BP's John Perotto says the Giants are mulling an offer of two different contract structures for Manny Ramirez. The first is larded with incentives and options, the second seems straightforward -- three years, $63 M.

The first one is too opaque for numerical discussion, so let's focus on the second. If it's paid out evenly at $21 M a year, it could easily put the Giants over $120 M in 2009. (Payroll was $73 M before the free agent signings. Affeldt, Howry, Renteria and Johnson make it $97 M. Incentives for Howry, Johnson and others could push it over $100 M.)

As noted in the last thread's comments, a lot of money falls off the payroll in 2010. But the gap closes quickly with the theoretical Manny contract. It would bump them close to $80 M, and that's before a potential Lincecum long-term deal or an exercise (at this point unlikely) of Lowry's $6.25 M option. 

(For more future payroll analysis, McGrant does some astute post-Affeldt but pre-Howry moneyballin' here. The "crazy contract" he postulates is attached to the CC rumors, but it serves just as well for the three-year Manny speculation.)

If the Giants don't sign Manny, there's still a looming question about the outfield. In 2010, it could be Lewis, Rowand and Schierholtz from left to right. Schierholtz could become a legitimate, frightening power hitter whose lefthandedness laughs and spits at the deep Mays Field dimensions (just like on this night); and Rowand could revisit his best power years, giving the Giants a lot of punch in the outfield.

Anyone who believes in both those scenarios, please raise your hand.

There are no quick fixes in the farm system. Of the team's top prospects, few are outfielders. Fewer are anywhere close to the majors. (This list has one OF, and he's 17 years old. The McCoven's community list is high on Roger Kieschnick, but his chance of grabbing a roster spot in 2010 is barely worth mentioning. Disagree if you wish.)

In other words, if not Manny, then someone else needs to provide this team in the next two years with genuine middle-of-the-order right-handed power. It won't be Aaron Rowand, it won't be Pablo Sandoval (unless he's got more switch-hitting magic than he's shown so far), it won't be Kevin Frandsen, it won't be Buster Posey, and it probably won't be Josh Phelps, and the fact that Phelps is the only one on this list who merits a slight benefit of the doubt is a scary thing, indeed. 

This isn't an argument for Manny, but it's an acknowledgment that the Giants desperately need what he's got. 


Also on the Network:



7 Comments

| Leave a comment
giantsrainman | January 5, 2009 8:00 PM | Reply

Sign Derek Lowe for 4yrs/$52-60M and trade Matt Cain and Travis Ishikawa to Texas for Chris Davis and one of their best pitching prospects.

Problem solved and a whole lot cheaper then signing Manny.

ELM | January 6, 2009 1:56 AM | Reply

Matt Cain is one of the most valuable players in baseball. He's young, he's durable, he's affordable, he's very good, and most indications point to him getting better. Trading him, if it ever comes to that, should bring back a bunch of prospects, not one.

giantsrainman | January 6, 2009 3:19 AM | Reply

Chris Davis is no longer a prospect. He is the real deal. He is exactly the type of player we should trade Cain for. But, you are right he is not enough. That is why the Rangers would have to include one of their best pitching prospects as well.

Mark O'Connor | January 6, 2009 10:28 AM | Reply

If you trade Matt Cain, who is our #2 starter? Our supposed starting "depth" is Cy Young, Matt Cain, question-mark-waiting-to-break-out, Barry Zito, and 45-year old guy. I think very highly of Sanchez, but he is still a question mark. Matt Cain has a career ERA+ of 118! I expect Johnson to do well, actually, but he is one season away from retirement. Cain is too big a part of the future. I think the Giants just may have to suck it up and lose for a few more years while we stock the system and build a new team around the pitching (and un-burden ourselves of the aging, overpaid guys).

ELM | January 6, 2009 12:14 PM | Reply

OK, maybe Davis has graduated and is no longer a prospect. I have two questions: Will he hit outside the bandbox in Texas? And are you sure his left-handed bat will play in Mays Field? I think the Giants should focus on RH bats. Mays Field is death to all LH power hitters not named Barry.

obsessivegiantscompulsive | January 6, 2009 2:26 PM | Reply

Since nobody is replying using the function, I'll post separately too.

Wow, I knew Davis was a good prospect but he really broke out in 2008. Based on his minors stats, he does look like the real thing. And he hit well on the road as well as at home, in fact, it was pretty close. But he has barely a half season's worth at the major league level, so while he has great cred, I would not call him proven or graduated yet.

For me, I would be OK with trading Cain and Ishikawa (and does Texas even want Ishikawa, they have a glut of 1B types if I recall right, they also have Salty, Max Ramirez, among others, plus Justin Smoak coming up soon) with Davis as the center piece AND as a 3B (not sure if he's good enough there), but Cain is a proven guy, with 3 very good seasons under his belt, a very good contract covering his arbitration years, durable.

I would want a package similar to what the A's got for Haren. The only problem is that Texas don't really have a lot of good pitching up top, from what I can see, though a lot with potential.

Still, a package including players from the following, about 5-7 in total, would be acceptable:

* Neftali Feliz, RHP (would have to include)
* Elvis Andrus, SS (unlikely but worth a try)
* Taylor Teagarden, C (unlikely but worth a try)
* Julio Borbon, OF
* Engel Beltre, OF
* Michael Main, RHP
* Max Ramirez, C but probably 1B
* Martin Perez, LHP
* Neil Ramirez, RHP
* Wilfredo Boscan, RHP
* Wilmer Font, RHP

Looking over this, probably would want (assuming we give up Ishikawa too): Davis, Feliz, Main, Neil Ramirez, Boscan, Font. And they can throw in Hurley as a failed former high prospect (particularly since some Giants fans consider him the guy the Giants could have selected with the pick we lost for Tucker). More higher talent (Davis and Feliz) than A's got for Haren, but less of the middle guys (only Main), with the rest high potential prospects far from the show with big question marks and more development to go.

giantsrainman replied to comment from obsessivegiantscompulsive | January 6, 2009 4:16 PM | Reply

I have to disagree. The value of the bird in hand (Davis) is worth more then the value of the birds in the bush you want to chase. Davis and 2 or three of your targets would be fine but no Davis and 5 or 6 of you targets is not the kind of trade the Giants should be making. The Giants are not looking to restock their minor leagues. The Giants are looking for significant offensive help now.

Leave a comment