After much ado about Manny Ramirez the past few days,
BP's John Perotto hangs digits on the speculation. He writes about two possible Giant offers:
...one which would guarantee two years with vesting and club options that
could make it a four-year, $100 million contract, and another that
would guarantee him $63 million for three years with no options.
This is according to "a baseball source." Not to be confused with a source of baseballs, like a factory in Central America. I'm not exactly pissing on Perotto's campfire, but I won't get too excited (or dismayed) by this apparent ratcheting-up of Mannymania until I get some questions answered.
For example: How the hell will the Giants rid themselves of two outfielders? If they sign Manny, they have Fred Lewis, Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Nate Schierholtz, and -- remember him? -- Dave Roberts. The Giants will almost certainly have to eat Roberts' $6.5 M salary to trade him. Once they acquire Manny, their leverage in trading Rowand or Winn will fall through the floor, too. Signing him not only means $60 M or $80 M or $100 M, it's millions more in sunk costs for others forced out by him.
Can we bear to watch the outfield defense? Manny would play LF, of course. Rowand would play CF, which until last year was a good thing. Now, we're not so sure. Was his below-average 2008 an anomaly or a trend? Hint: He's turning 32 in August and already has more dents than a hobo's kettle. Trading Rowand (again: how much of his remaining $48 M would the Giants have to eat?) would let them slide Winn to CF, or perhaps Lewis, but neither is the All-World CF defender the Mannyful Giants would need to keep a season's worth of catchable balls from scooting through the left-center field gap. What's more, moving Winn to CF leaves RF, perhaps the toughest field in all of baseball to cover, to Schierholtz. He might prove worthy, but he won't be as good as Winn.
Then there's the problem of what to do in 2010? Extend Winn's contract? Look for yet another free agent center fielder? Pray the A's return Ben Copeland, who then miraculously turns into a major-league center fielder? Clay Timpner?
Maybe the Giants will figure sign Manny now, worry about money and personnel later. If so -- and I offer this in the spirit of
Hunter S. Thompson's lawyer, who says, well, if you really insist on eating that acid and huffing that ether and driving the Great Red Shark with the top down, you might as well keep a fifth of whiskey in the glove box as insurance -- they're best off trading Rowand, somehow, someway, praying that Lewis and Winn can patrol CF adequately, and salting Ramirez's contract with enough incentives to keep him motivated while limiting the contract to two years. My ceiling: two years, $30 M, with incentives to boost the totals significantly that also trigger a third-year option.
In other words, ain't gonna happen. Scott Boras would rather eat termites. And as others have noted, Manny on the cheap wouldn't be Manny at his friendliest. He might solve the Giants' need for a cleanup hitter in 2009, but unless -- even if -- he signs on the Giants' terms, he adds far more problems, short term and long term, than he solves.
I don't think that the Giants should sign Manny Ramirez unless they can move Rowand without eating (virtually) any of the contract. If they can get Rowand's 12 million/yr off of the books for the next four years then it sounds alright (although I am not very enthusiastic about Manny as a person and I think that matters). Since Winn is only on the books for next year, moving him wouldn't help enough with payroll going forward. What the Giants really need to do is trade Molina, retain Sandoval at C, and sign a free agent 3B (or trade for one). They save money (which could help if they are serious about Manny and certainly won't hurt otherwise), substantially upgrade the offense, get a couple of prospects, and maximize Sandoval's value. See the recent reports from BA which show that Sandoval was stellar at throwing out runners and fine on his blocking techniques. Sandoval's defense looks fine, perhaps even good at C, so why on earth would the Giants move him? I don't care if Posey's the C of the future. Failing to maximize Sandoval's value by moving him to 3B/1B is stupid for the Giant's present and future. If we have two great young offensive catchers trade one (someone would give up the farm for a cost effective offensively stellar young C with a year of MLB experience) or make a positional switch later. Besides, Posey will probably be even more flexible positionally than Sandoval, and although it is doubtful Posey can play SS in the MLB, one never knows. Here are the links:
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1835
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1724
If I try really hard, I can make the three year offer make some kind of sick sense. The 4 year, $100M albatross is just insane, though. Can we imagine a likely scenario in which that option wouldn't vest? IMO, the danger with manny is not that he'll get hurt and miss a ton of games/plate appearances (the only thing they could tie that vesting option to), but that he'll be completely unmotivated and play 140 games a season at his 2007 level, which is good enough that Manny would have a legitimate grounds to file a grievance if the Giants tried to prevent the option from vesting. Granted, two years of .296/.388/.493 is pretty valuable (who knows how he'd do in years 3 and 4), but it's probably not enough to put the Giants in serious world serious contention, and 25M a year probably is enough to hamstring the payroll.
alot of what you say makes sense, but you're making it sound like the Giants' are broke and in need of public assistance. How do you know that 20- 25 million per year in Manny's salary breaks them and forces them to start dumping other players?? You can be sure that they would love to do this if they signed Manny, but you don't know they HAVE to do this. They also have 29 million coming off the books after 2009, so Manny's salary is definitely not a problem then, although certain other players will get raises. The Giants' are making so much money that they pay back double of what they have to in debt service. As long as they're doing that, they're loaded in my mind. Andy Baggarly says that Scott Boras has always told him that based on their revenues the Giants' should always have a team payroll of about 140-150 million, and he would probably know. Signing Manny makes the Giants' the prohibitive NL west favorite this year, and shouldn't that be all that counts?? I actually expect Manny to sign with the Dodgers again, because I think he was reasonably happy there last year and prefers the warmer weather, but if that happens and the Dodgers go to the series, I don't want to hear all the fans that didn't want Manny to start whining. (like I know they all will)
Although you have a point, Scott Boras is not a reliable source of information regarding ideal salary levels.
Because I don't think Manny is the one piece keeping the Giants out of the Series and do not want him on the team, I do promise to refrain from whining in the event of a Manny-led Dodgers WS appearance.
Regarding the debt service, if you only pay your lender what you have to pay, you end up paying much more in the long run. The Giants long-term should be paying as much as possible to get out from under the stadium debt as soon as possible.
I'll bet Boras is conveniently forgetting that the Giants have to pay $20M in mortgage payments every year.
Also, I recall the quote as being $120M, hence why I think he's missing the $20M mortgagee payment.
I totally agree. In no way or form can the Giants afford to sign Manny without ridding themselves of either Winn or Rowand AND they will have to jettison Roberts as well, an extremely difficult task. The best the Giants can even hope for is to maybe save $2 million on Roberts and even then, they get nothing in return. They probably are more likely to pay $6 million on him.
An incentive laden deal does seem to be the best for the Giants, but neither Boras or Manny are likely to ever consider it. Maybe incentives that top out around $30 million for a monster season AND making the playoffs.
Still, I see it highly unlikely Manny signs here. Just to Manny things need to happen to make it feasible and economical. More likely, Sabean is in as a scare tactic to the Dodgers and would be happy to swallow Manny up if his price falls to the Giants.
Oh yeah, and never forget the Yankees
Finally, someone who is making sense. All I hear is we need Manny, we need him bad. BUT he comes with major baggage and is not the solution for this team. THANK YOU for writing this article, you make a lot of good points. Watching Manny last year trying to get a contract with the Dodgers his fielding was so bad I thought that he was allowing a lot of runs to score. He also scored a lot of runs for the Dodgers but the Liability that is Manny in the OF pretty much balances out the the scoring that he would add. Oh yeah and if he is on the Giants he walks 300+ times. Who isn't going to walk him to get to Rowand or Sando, we have nobody on the roster to make them throw a pitch to Manny.
so you're saying that having a player in your lineup that walks 300 times is a bad thing?? As for the Giants' not being world series worthy, I would think a team with a rotation that the Giants' have would be the biggest nightmare that any other playoff team would have to face. Who's going to match up with a rotation of Lincecum, Cain, and Randy Johnson in the playoffs??
Forget about Mannys rasta braids chasing missed balls in SF.
Him and Boras are holding off just waiting for the dodger bums to up the ante after all the offers trickle in. The last thing the blue bums want is manny in orange and black. Especially after the Giants improved pitching staff.
Would I welcome him to the bay? Hell yeah! Remember Bonds limping in left field, fighting with Kent, lounge chairs in the locker room and no shows for team photos. Oh yeah; he ripped at the plate and sold tickets.
Happy New Year!
I just don't understand how anyone can suggest signing Manny and not also accept that we could get Bonds back for probably 8Mil +incentives. He'd mean more ticket sales than Manny, there's a real possibility that he'd be over his hip surgery and court battles around the same time, (April), and he's certainly not any more of a liability in LF than Manny is.
If no one signs Bonds this year, he's going to win about 100 million bucks in a collusion law suit. This is ridiculous!
Bonds just had hip surgery. And he's missed an entire year. Collusion or not, he's simply not a viable option for a National League team. If he plays at all, it'll be as a DH.
he's also 44 years old. And you're really assuming something if you assume he'll be done with his court cases at that time. What if he's convicted?? And even if he escapes a jail sentence, you can be sure that Selig will suspend him from baseball. Bonds is not an option.