The Search for Right-Handed Power Continues...
Like some kind of Icelandic saga across miles of frozen winter ocean, we continue our discussion of The Big Bat. Today’s flavor of right-handed power is Nick Swisher (OK, a switch hitter) and Xavier Nady. Grant does a good job on Nady today, so I’ll leave that be. (Though I’m a bit more optimistic that Swisher will rebound. We can discuss him some other time.)
The bigger picture — and when traveling by sled across endless ice, what else is there, really? — is that this winter market is quickly melting under the players’ feet. The consensus among the punditocracy is that Pat Burrell will be working for slave wages on the Tampa plantation the next two years, and Billy Beane just found himself a simply fabulous Giambi-and-pumps combination, and don’t even try to guess how much he paid, dahling!
As Abreu, Dunn and lesser lights start to panic and sign, Manny Ramirez might find himself stuck between a Ned and a hard Sabes. Ugh, I wish I hadn’t written that. As Joe Sheehan writes today in BP, “The chance for Ramirez to break the bank is gone.”
You knew this would come back to Manny, didn’t you? Sheehan lays out the reasons why the Giants should think seriously about Ramirez, and I think it’s instructive to listen, mostly because we inside the bubble tend to overvalue the familiar (ie, the Giants’ prospects). It’s good to hear outside voices, such as:
The Giants' interest is amusing, given that 16 months ago they parted ways with an all-bat, no-glove left fielder who was a better overall player than Ramirez on the grounds that they were trying to rebuild. I guess the Fred Lewis Era is over? It's not, snark aside, that bad of an idea. The Giants have a very good rotation, the makings of an effective bullpen, and they play against weak competition. The addition of one big bat, most likely to play left with Lewis moving to right and the team being saved from Nate Schierholtz, could turn them into co-favorites in the NL West. That's a combination of credit for the Randy Johnson signing, a lack of faith in Schierholtz, and an indictment of the division.
Saved from Nate Schierholtz? At some point Nate must have run over Sheehan’s dog or, even worse, knocked over his beer with a foul ball.
But the larger point is ringing truer every day: At what point do the Giants say, sheesh, we only have to pay how much for one of the top 5 hitters in major league baseball? What if price is no longer an issue, substandard defense is overlookable, and the only thing standing between Manny and the Chevron cars is the stubborn need to prove that Nate Schierholtz will someday be an adequate major-leaguer?
Is Schierholtz (or Fred Lewis) really worth keeping around, just to keep up the good name of the youth movement? It’s not like more youth won’t be along soon enough. Last I checked, there’s youth all over the place, writing messages on cell phones, wearing saggy jeans, riding pieces of wood festooned with rubber wheels. I think they’re called skateplanks.
Dammit, recession, you’re wearing down my anti-Manny resolve and exposing my callow lack of righteous principle! Stop it!
Why not Bonds?
Seriously. Isn't he a much safer bet than Ramirez? Ramirez is petrifying because of his cost (Bonds would be at least half the price), duration of the contract (Bonds would sign for 1 year as opposed to 4) lack of defense (Bonds would be a wash) and his attitude (again a wash). Plus Bonds is familiar with the Mays Field surroundings. The only major thing Ramirez has over Bonds (besides the obvious) is that he's younger and less of an injury threat.
OK, so with that said I know it is ridiculous and won't happen. Fair or not, Bonds is a PR nightmare and both the Bay Bridge and the Golden Gate have been burned between both parties. But when you think of it this way Ramirez just doesn't make a lick of sense. As long as we're looking at a roller coaster in left field why not sign the guy who might give as much production as Ramirez without further mortgaging the future of the franchise?
At this point Bonds is no sure thing. He's having hip surgery and won't be ready for spring training. He missed an entire year. Even without all this, I think it's safe to say his D would be far, far worse than Manny's at this point.
The larger point of my post is that it's possible Manny's price and length of contract *won't* be petrifying before long, given the way the market's headed.
MLB Trade Rumors reprinted this excerpt from Sabean, taking about Ramirez on a radio show earlier today:
"In our case I’m not sure yet. We’re monitoring the situation. We’ve had talks. We have not made an offer. We’ve talked in parameters of what would be yearwise. It would have to be a perfect fit dollarwise and more so what we’re doing to try and build this thing going forward on a younger basis. It’s actually not what we’re looking for, except that he’s such a profound middle of the order hitter. Which we need."
Sheehan has a more extreme case of Nate Hate than is warranted. He thinks that Nate is the next Lance Niekro. He's also apparently forgot that we have Randy Winn. (Poor Randy).
Lefty:
Chone Smith and The Rainman disagree.
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=18746612&postID=9052841226961119199&isPopup=true
This is the chat from Friday, January 02, 2009
Players of the day: Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa
http://www.lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/
The above should of shown up as a reply to ELM's post 2 spots up. Let's see if this post shows up as a reply to myself.
Hmm, this is the second time this problem hs happened to me only to have it work in subsequent attempts. I am not seeing what I am doing wrong the first time to cause this and what I am doing right in these subsequent efforts to make it work.
I agree with you lefty. My resolve is waning as well. Ramirez sure would be nice to see stabilizing the middle of the order. I can't quite decide who I'd rather see go, Winn or Rowand. On one hand, it would be nice to see Rowand's contract go away (maybe for Swisher's), but on the other hand, we would be totally reliant on Randy Winn in center (Fred just can't do it) and Randy in the center fielder that he is the right fielder. Also, after this season, who plays center???
I don't know,but if the price does indeed fall, I can't find a decent argument against it at this point...
You can't pass up on Manny just because you have younger cheaper less productive players filling out the roster. You try to win now because you don't know how long the staff will be together. Manny gives you a legit shot of getting into the postseason, then we have the staff to make some noise.
What is so wrong with Adam Dunn? I think he is the way to go. Get him while power is so cheap. How bad could his defense be? Heres a guy who has literally hit 40 Homers every year for four years and the year before that hit 46. His OBP is good because he walks alot. Even if that 40 turns to 30 at AT&T. I still think he is worth it. Because I'm sure he'll sign cheaper than Manny.
Dunn's OF defense is terrible. Click here and look at all the negative numbers on the right side of the chart. Put him in Mays Field and he's a disaster. Put him at first base, where he's played all of 21 games in the past three years, and he'll definitely give back a lot of value that you gain from his offense. Add to that the fact that his power will likely be curtailed by Mays Field, and you have a questionable acquisition.
I'm not sure the ManRam price is falling. Yeah, he's not going to get the $100 mil deal he & Boras thought he had coming after the NLCS. But when Boras overplays his hand like this, he works it until the player can sign something that doesn't look like a cave-in.
So: Ned C. offered $44-45/2 years out of the gate. Boras ignored the proposal; only now it looks like Manny's best employment opportunity. But Boras cannot say yes now; that's not his way. He's going to have to squeeze more $$ out of the Dodgers or find another team to offer more years (even at a lower annual salary). Then he can try to scare all bidders into raising the dollars or years to trump what is allegedly on the table.
All it takes is 2 teams, all the better if they're rivals -- even if the Giants' role as the alternative bidder here has more to do with Boras spinning than Sabean negotiating. But unless LAD or SFG tells Boras to stuff it (unlikely, since both Ned C. and Sabes would want at least to feign enough interest to drive up the price), this contract looks like it is going to be a major undertaking-- not a post-holiday clearance sale.
If the price does continue to drop, I wouldn't be surprised if the Yankees make a bid. A rich AL team can afford to give him a longer contract because of the DH option. It would be interesting to see what happened if NY offered, say, 4 years and $60-80 M.
Frankly if either team offers 3 years and $63 million he will bite. He's running out of options unless the Yanks or Mets jump in. The Nats would take him (but I guarantee they will sign Dunn), but where else can he really go? It's down to a couple of teams and honestly, in this case the teams have more leverage. Did you see what Burrell signed for? $8 million a year? That was a pay cut. Many teams are cutting back or have solidified their offense by now.
If I was the Giants I would offer 2 years, plus a guaranteed option year if he gets 500 ABs. That might do it. If not, walk away and grab someone in a trade.
The BP writer and everybody else are ignoring a major factor distinguishing Bonds from Ramirez: Manny is not under indictment, and whatever else is wrong with him, he's not the posterboy for steroids use.
But there are similarities, and "clubhouse cancer" might be one of them. Do we want to sign up for the "will he come out of the clubhouse in the ninth?" theatrics again? Do the other players need to live with that attitude crap? Yeah, I'll take a year, maybe two, but the marriage will go bad before then and we'll need an iron-clad exit strategy!
You are wrong about Fred Lewis not being able to play Center. His trouble is left field where line drives off the bats of right handers can be hard to judge if you are used to playing CF. Lewis would do a better job in Center then Rowand and in turn, Rowand might be a better option in left so why not flip flop them and find out.
Look at last offseason and how much CF got paid in free agency and having an affordable flexible option like Lewis there makes a lot of sense. He has the speed and a good enough arm to play there and if Rowand wasn't signed last year he would have had more PT to show what he is capable of at CF.
Also, if there was ever any thought to eventually trading Lewis then his value would go up significantly if he shows he can handle CF. In turn, his price tag should always remain reasonable and in 2-3 years he may be a poor man's version of Torri Hunter with 20-20 potential.
Bottom line is the Giants shouldn't be hesitant to trade Rowand as both his bat and glove are easily replaceable and his contract is rediculous. There will always be free agent corner outfielders to sign so get rid of Rowand, slide Lewis over to Center, and sign Manny so we can roll the NL West and maybe make some noise in the playoffs.
In this scenario, I'd much rather see Winn in CF than Lewis. At least, he's played the position capably before.
You sound like Sabean saying Winn would be better because at least he's played the position capably before. In order to find out how capable Lewis can play center you need to give him a reasonable opportunity to prove he can. Winn is an average CF at best but does seem to play well in right at BONDS-Field. Leave him there and give Fred 20 games in CF to see if he can cut it.
The reason for my comment is that Lewis has been very unimpressive defensively in LF. I can't imagine it improving moving over to CF. He routinely gets bad jumps on balls and takes poor routes to others. Add that to a sometimes stone glove and you don't really have a CF candidate.
If I am not mistaken, Lewis played CF in college and the minors so I would think that is where he would be more comfortable. The balls I saw Lewis misplay last season in LF were line drives hit to his left off the bat of right handed hitters. In CF when a ball is hit to your left it stays left but in LF it will come back to you and can be a lot tougher to judge then just about any ball you see in CF. Even if Lewis stays in LF he will be better this season then last just for having a full year there under his belt but if he has the skills to play CF and is more comfortable there then I don't see what you lose by putting him there and finding out.
Manny Ramirez is not going to sign with the Giants. We all know it, and we should all just stop.
Discussion of the re-signing of Barry Bonds should never appear anywhere other than the sfgate.com comments section, next to discussions about the re-signing of Gaylord Perry, Lee Perry and Traci Lords.
I forgot that Nate was a lefty. He would be far more useful to a lot of other teams.
I just don't get the Nate Hate.
I say sign Manny AND Joe Crede (for one year). Why? Well, it won't fit the payroll this year, but next year, a lot of veteran contracts will be off the books - Winn ($8,25m), Roberts ($6m), Molina ($6m), Howry ($2.75m), Johnson ($8m),among others. Since Sabean has loaded up with short term veterans, why not go for it THIS year? Otherwise, why bother signing Renteria, Howry, and Johnson instead of bringing up the young guys? At 3 years + club option for a fourth, Manny's worth it in the context of the other signings. Don't do it half baked, Sabean, go ALL the way.
Sheehan is foolish to compare Bonds to Manny as an apples-to-apples discussion. First, Bonds last offseason was 43 years old. Manny this offseason is 36 years old. Those 7 years alone makes this comparison moot. Second, Manny is able to run and be at least adequate in LF while Barry's mobility was almost zero making him eligible only at DH to be fair. If the Giants played in the AL the comparison would be just slightly more realistic. But otherwise the foundation of this whole discussion is fundamentally flawed.
Oh and I didn't even mention that Manny hasn't been indicted, now did I, LOL. Manny's baggage is 1% of the mess that Bonds brings to a club. And let's not forget that Bonds was an ass to everyone including his teammates. While Manny lost respect in the Boston clubhouse last year, he's been generally a reasonable citizen in terms of his own teammates, a goofball for sure, but not a clubhouse nightmare like Bonds.
So let's look at Manny on the merits of his skill set versus the cost involved to secure his services (dollars and years). Leave the Bonds comparisons out. They are invalid.