Word from New York is that Oliver Perez is back with the Mets on a 3–year, $36 M deal. That’s big money these days. Lucky Ollie.
The deal presumably takes the Mets out of the running for Ben Sheets. How stunning is this: The guy who started the All-Star Game for the National League still doesn’t have a job two weeks before spring training. Sheets’ injury history is a huge factor, of course. His elbow pain forced him out of games early in the crucial stretch run and playoffs last year. But the guy is an ace when healthy.
I don’t know what’s showing up on Sheets’s x-rays. Hell, I probably couldn’t tell bone chips from a bag of low-cholesterol, cruelty-free, shade-grown, baked-not-fried, union-proud, chipotle and organic sumac flavored tortilla chips, but let’s play “What if” for a moment anyway — call it a bit of Sabeanesque tire-kicking for the soul.
What if Sheets’s arm had, say, a 50% chance of holding up for a full season? And what if, seeing how his market was fading fast, he was willing to go one year plus an option based on innings pitched (weighted toward late-season innings, as the Giants did with a certain part of Matt Cain’s contract)?
What if the Giants could sign him? Remember, this isn’t an aging veteran or an unproven kid. When healthy, Sheets is elite. Putting dollars aside for a moment, here’s the calculation: Would the Giants have enough faith in Sheets’s health to trade Jonathan Sanchez in spring training for a legitimate bat? If so, and Sheets’s arm gave out, would Noah Lowry be ready to step into the rotation?
If not Lowry, would the team still be strong enough with a starting four of Lincecum, Cain, Johnson and Zito, and the improved offense from the Sanchez trade?
Would having Sheets and Johnson in the same rotation without adequate backup be too risky? I’m eager to read your thoughts, even some dollar figures you think would be worth taking the risk on Sheets. Before you pooh-pooh, imagine: The Four Aces and some guy named Zito, plus a serious offensive upgrade.
I think that is solid outside the box thinking, for the right price and terms. This could allow the Giants to make a serious push for a ring in this year most of us are willing to right off, and it doesn't interupt the long term plan. I think we have some young pitching that could step in and give Sheets and Johnson a rest and hell, this rotation might make sense to go every six days-with Lowry or Pucetas. You could even take a look at some of our other 4/5 starter prospects like Snyder. If our new hitter is a real #4 guy and we get a break out or two from a couple kids... those pitchers could carry the playoffs.
If the Giants were to sign Ben Sheets the trade I would like to see would be with the Washington Nationals. I would like to get Ryan Zimmerman. But, I don't think this can be done with a package around Jonathan Sanchez. I think Cain would have to headline this package. I see something like Cain, Lowry, Ishikawa for Ryan Zimmerman, Nick Johnson, and Jordan Zimmermann.
Rainman, I live here in DC and I am not sold yet that Zimmerman will fully develop into a reliable hitter. No way I trade Cain for him and there is no way they trade him for Sanchez.
The only person I dangle Cain for would be Ryan Howard and that is for next season...whoever mentioend trading Sanchez for Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Riollins has to stay off the crack...
It is an interesting idea. The question I have to ask is, what can we really get for Sanchez? Is he really enough for a true # 4 hitter? I think if Sheets can stay healthy until July he would be better trade bait for a cleanup hitter than Sanchez. What have we really been offered for Sanchez? EE, Cantu, Nady, Blalock? Do you consider those to be cleanup hitters? I don't.
I have always liked Ben Sheets and definitely think he would be worth a risk. I just have no idea what he might be looking for. I think we'd have to give him at least a two-year deal for him to consider it but how much a year? $10 mil? $12 mil? I think two years for anything around 10 million per would be worth seriously looking into. It seems like we have enough intriguing pitching options in the farm that, in the case of a disaster (losing Johnson AND Sheets with injuries) we could at least hold down the fort for a while.
I also don't think that Sanchez and a grab bag is going to net us anywhere close to what we're looking for in the middle of the line-up but it'd be nice if we could get a guy like Nady and perhaps another similar-type player at 2B or 3B for Sanchez, a decent AAA bat and two non-Alderson/Bumgardner pitchers. As I recall, the Yankees really liked Sanchez last year and perhaps we could even pawn off an outfielder on them as well since it appears to be a need.
Sign Sheets and then trade Cain for a bat and now were talkin
I wouldn't trade Cain until mid-year and Sheets proved he was healthy. I'd much rather trade Sanchez as part of a larger package.
Who do you think we could get for a packaged headed by Sanchez that would be worth getting?
If Sabean knew how to get a quality bat for Sanchez he would have done it already. Signing free agents and spending money is easy but putting together a trade for a middle of the order bat is something Sabean has no clue how to make happen unless it were for Encarnacion, Cantu, or some other garbage. I think Sheets is one of the 5 best pitchers in the NL when healthy and if it took 5 million for one year I would say hell yea.
Also, every other GM who is in need of pitching has to have their eye on this guy and would be stupid to trade a quality bat for a guy like sanchez when they could just sign Sheets and not lose the bat. The other side of that coin is that if the Giants do sign Sheets then theoreticaly one of those teams that needs pitching may want Sanchez but the Giants lose a ton of leverage because everyone would know they were overloaded with pitching (kind of like trying to trade Rowand or Winn if we signed Manny, their value would be lower because other teams would know that we were highly motivated to move them).
So to answer your question, yes we should sign Sheets but only if we can turn around and trade Sanchez and Winn for say Hanley Ramirez or Jimmy Rollins.
What is all this trade Cain talk? Sheets injury is an unknown and Cain has tremendous upside. We dont know how good he will be. This talk amounts to trading Cain for Sheets. NOt smart. Lets go to camp with what we have now and see where we are at trade deadline.
Yup, lets start the year with Molina hitting cleanup...lets see how that goes
I agree with Chris. What has ever come from dangling Sanchez? Even without Sheets, wouldn't we be willing to trade Sanchez if we could get a solid middle lineup bat? I live in L.A., and this time of year all I can think about is Giants baseball. I am the ultimate optimist (of course, I really do think Fred Lewis could hit 25-20HRs down in the order). But all of my Dodger fan friends just have to say one thing... your cleanup hitter is Bengie Molina!
Sheets would be great, but without a bat, the Giants will hit the ceiling at playoff birth and a quick exit.
As for numbers, I would say 2 years $22 mil. for Sheets, plus incentives. It would be fun to have that kind of pitching staff.
Sheets would have been a great idea pre-Randy Johnson. Now, not so much.
I agree with others, Sanchez isn't getting us the power bat we need. And I ain't trading Cain, heck, even he probably wouldn't get us the bat, his value is probably no better than Lincecum before the 2008 season and all he was valued at was Alex Rios. We would actually have to throw someone else in. No way!
The only way a Sheets signing works is if we move Sanchez back to the bullpen for 2009 or if we go with a 6 man rotation. The bullpen, no, the 6-man I could go for. Since Sanchez had arm problems last season, we go 6 man, but skip his spot depending on the schedule. Any time Sheets or Johnson are DLed, we go back to 5 man rotation with Sanchez full-time. They could also give Sheets the "bye" start sometimes to rest his arm, they could monitor his arm like a eagle and sit him at the first notice of anything.
Then by mid-season, you reassess everything, perhaps somebody finally wants to give a big bat for someone not named Lincecum or Cain.
In a free agent market that is poor on power hitting corner infielders and rich in stellar free agent pitching, it makes sense to pursue pitching and trade for the power hitting. This has a fairly good chance to work because small market teams which are more in need of pitching than hitting can not afford to go after the free agent pitching, but want young cost-controlled pitchers, like Sanchez or Cain. I was lobbying for this approach at the start of the free agent season, and I think that it could potentially still work, but there is not much "stellar" pitching left on the market apart from Sheets. I think this is a route which the Giants should very seriously consider. If the Giants were to pick up Sheets, and a trade not materialize, I would make both Zito a long reliever and force Lowry to "rehab" in AAA before I moved Sanchez back to the bullpen. However, good pitching is always at a premium and I don't think the Giants would have too much trouble getting a solid bat in return for either Sanchez or Cain or Lowry (if he proves healthy and effective) should they acquire Sheets. And yes, Cain is great, but he is not under contract forever and right now nobody but Lincecum should be off limits as far as trade proposals. If signing Sheets allowed the Giants to feel like they can field offers for Cain, then I am all for it.
In a theoretical vacuum, Lefty, I'd look at a Sanchez trade. But not now, given the present realities. Despite "trading surplus pitching for hitting" as Brian Sabean's previous motto, the grand realization of that strategy has been, to date, one Anthony John Pierzynski.
So Sabean has no credible track record in this department. But even if he were Trader Jack, the current FA situation is such that hitters (FA or already signed) are precious commmodities, so that intelligent GM's everywhere will be holding on tightly and/or overvaluing their hitters. We can't count on Dave Littlefield anymore.
Lefty. you were reading my mind from last week..I would say we had to have the Sanchez trade lined up first before considering it, but I would be reaching out to Sheets' people. I think they would have to make a deal maybe in the $4-$5 mill range with the chance to get to $8-$10 in incentives. The reason I would offer maybe a bit more than he is likely to get elsewhere is that if he performms better than expected and we had treated him fairly with this contract, the Giants would be in possible need of his services next year when Johnson presumably retires. Hopefully Sheets would then be willing to consider re-signing with us and be possibly the #2 starter...
But Sanchez would have to bring in a reliable corner infield power bat.
I would not be overly worried abioiut Sheets' health, if Lowry was not able to fill in, I think Affeldt is a legit #5 starter, but I would go with a Lincecum-Johnson-Cain-Sheets-Zito rotation.
The Giants are a team built on great pitching and only decent hitting. I guess the "plan" is to win a lot of 2-1 or 3-2 ballgames.
Teams like that CAN'T have a weak link in the rotation, as that pretty much ensures losing 20% of your games in addition to normal, expected losses for the good starters. Having Sheets would almost ensure that we'd be starting a legit, strong pitcher every game. Given our lineup, we need that.
I think its worth taking a shot if we can get him for 3 years at an average of 6-7 mil.
I dont agree that having too many starting pitchers could hurt us in any way. Not adding talent to protect the team from a perceived loss in trading leverage is severe overthinking. Like turning down lottery money because if you win it again next month you'll be bumped into a higher tax bracket.
Teams will always be looking for good pitching, and while it might not land us a middle-of-the-lineup bat, trading a solid starter could bring in a very strong complementary player or a good prospect for down the road.
why offer a three-year deal when no one is offering him a one-year deal. No need to overpay, one year $4-$5 mill with incentives to get to $8 mill, but after we have either Manny or Crede resolved in the market.
one has to question his health if no one has signed him yet. You would think him pitching in the 4 hole for he Giants would get him a fewwins and take a lot of pressure of his arm...
When you separate the issues, the answers become obvious.
1. Are the Giants the best team in the NL? Heck no.
2. Would they be a better team with Ben Sheets than without Ben Sheets (assuming the price was right)? Heck yeah.
3. Do the Giants (or anybody, for that matter) have too much pitching? Nope.
No brainer - sign Bennie in a NY minute.
As for the rest of it, I don't see other teams placing enough value on Jonathan Sanchez (or Matt Cain, for that matter) to give the G Men a decent bat in return (so much for the Sabean theory of developing pitching and then trading it for hitting). So until the farm "fish" develop, their only real option is to load up on pitching and try to win the 3-2 games. And for goodness' sake, bat Rowand or Sandoval #4 and get cement shoe Molina out of that spot!
Yeah its sounds like a good fit, but with the rumor of the giants being linked to manny; its seems doubtful that the giants can pour out money for ramierz and sheets. Hopefully the Giants can start talking with the Marlins or the Rangers for some upgrade in the infield. The past couple of years since the 2002 World Series team the Giants infield hitting has been horrible. Maybe trading sanchez or cain for uggla or ian kinsler?
Did you see this post on MLBTR about Uggla feeling unwanted in Florida? What about Sanchez and Frandsen for Uggla?
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/02/uggla-feeling-u.html