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03.30.2009

Dodgers in on Ohman

The LA Times reports this morning the Dodgers have offered lefty bullpen specialist Will Ohman a $1 million contract. (Link tip from MLB Trade Rumors.)

If the Giants have real interest in Ohman, they should be highly motivated to keep him out of Dodger blue. There are three reasons:

1) Unlike Jack Taschner, Ohman actually gets lefties out. Here are his career splits.

2) If the Dodgers don't get him, they're more likely to start the year with Erick Threets as their LOOGY. As you might remember, Threets spent his entire career until this winter as a Giant, mostly a minor-leaguer, and never figured out how to throw strikes.

3) A tough lefty could be key against the Dodgers. Two of their top young hitters, Andre Ethier and James Loney, are much less dangerous against lefties, each slugging about 100 points lower. Their new second baseman Orlando Hudson is a switch hitter who prefers hitting from the left side.

Conversely, the Giants have lefties Fred Lewis and Travis Ishikawa, not to mention the switch hitter Pablo Sandoval who was terrible against lefties in his brief big-league stint last year. There's not much in his minor league record to suggest he'll improve much soon. Lewis and Ish have showed some glimmers of hope against lefties (Fun fact: Fred is the only left-handed batter to get four hits against Randy Johnson), but a tough LOOGY could neutralize them and Sandoval in a critical situation, which might force Bruce Bochy to pinch-hit and, especially in Ishikawa's case, downgrade the late-game defense.

The complicating factor is Ohman's conditioning. Joe Torre told the press Ohman didn't look game-ready after spending most of spring training without a team. Perhaps that's a deliberate red herring Torre is throwing down. But even if Ohman takes a couple extra weeks to work back into game shape, outspending the Dodgers will probably be worth it, especially now that the Giants have saved themselves nearly a mil by trading Taschner.

UPDATE: Chris at Bay City Ball posted on Friday a more statistically detailed argument in favor of signing Ohman. Check it out here.