When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

04.16.2009
Beware the 2010 Illusion

No matter how the 2009 Giants play, everyone is really looking to 2010. Let’s face it, a competitive team this year is a special bonus cookie with a little extra sugar sprinkled on top thanks to a few pundits choosing the Giants as dark horse candidates. But if this year’s team doesn’t compete, we all shrug and say this wasn’t supposed to be the coming-out party, anyway, and we turn, enraptured, toward the gleaming alabaster monolith on the horizon….cue “Also Sprach Zarathustra”…..boom boom boom go the tympanis…

2010

I forgive you for scratching your head and saying, “Tell me again why 2010 is so special?” Here’s the conventional wisdom:

* The first wave of really good minor leaguers should arrive. Buster Posey is usually Exhibit #1. Buster Posey is currently punishing the pitchers of High-A ball.

* The starting rotation will have Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, and perhaps one or more of those awesome young hurlers currently in High-A ball.

* The contracts of Bengie Molina, Dave Roberts, Randy Winn will have expired. The Giants have already dealt with Roberts.

What’s wrong with this picture? First, notice the similarity between the first and second items. The rosy near-future hinges upon the arrival of key players currently three levels removed from major league baseball. In fact, nearly all the team’s young blue-chip talent is at a similar remove. It’s far more realistic — and still optimistic — to think of them arriving in San Francisco in 2011 and a couple of them succeeding in 2012. Maybe one or two can have moderate impact in 2010, but it’s delusional to count on a wave of minor leaguers ascending next year and making the Giants competitive.

Second, Randy Winn and Bengie Molina are the least of the Giants’ problems. There’s even an argument to make that both should get one-year extensions — especially if the team can trade Aaron Rowand, and if Pablo Sandoval turns out not to be the second coming of Kung Fu Panda Jesus. (A very popular cartoon show in Venezuela, I hear.)

Third, the Giants will have Barry Zito, Edgar Renteria and Rowand in 2010. I guess trades are always possible (or at least good for rumor fodder) but don’t count on it, luv. Also, I’m not crapping on Renteria yet. I give him another two weeks. But so far, so bad.

So what does this mean? Do we reset our expectations, cheer incremental progress this year and next, and make our new rallying cry “2011! 2011! Good God Almighty, 2011!”?

I say no. Waiting for the Posey-Bumgarner generation to ride to the franchise’s rescue is a fool’s exercise. I think Sabean & Co. had the right idea this winter: accelerate a couple young’uns to see if they can help now, be strategic on the free agent market, and if the team is still in contention in June, hope the trade market is juicy enough to bolster a run at the pennant at the right price.

So far, performances across the board have scuttled the common sense under a wave of small-sample-size panic. Randy Johnson! Old! Edgar Renteria! Terrible! Bobby Howry! Hates puppies! Orlando Hudson! Hits cycles for the Dodgers, not the Giants! Sandoval/Ishikawa/Burriss! What were the Giants thinking???

I give you this: Everything that could go wrong might continue to go wrong. It happens. But it shouldn’t keep the Giants from making forays into the trade markets and free agent markets to try to make 2010 a competitive year. Thanks to remarkable trade restraint this winter, they still have all their prospects. Some of them are inevitable trade chips.

I know what some of you are thinking — other than “Mmm, chips” — you’re thinking, sure, the Giants should continue to make smart trades and free agent signings, but fer crissakes it ain’t gonna happen with the current clowns in charge.



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11 Comments

| Leave a comment
justin | April 16, 2009 8:27 PM | Reply

Doesn't the team have an option on Edgar?

Jefferson replied to comment from justin | April 16, 2009 9:19 PM | Reply

Yes. According to Cot's, there's a 2011 club option for $10.5 million, with a $500k buyout.

UVHaight | April 16, 2009 10:16 PM | Reply

A lot of this could have been foreseen. The Giants were the only team on the planet that thought Renteria wasn't done, no matter what his agent says. And Howry was terrible last year. Much like the Zito signing, there was far too great a chance that neither of those decisions was going to end well.

I like the Johnson and Affeldt acquisitions. I think they will eventually pay out. Although Johnson was also a huge risk. But if Sabean is on trial, as comments from Neukom seem to indicate, I think he is failing.

The Braves have built a decent bullpen year in and year out from their farm system and the waiver wire. With so many pitching-heavy drafts, there is absolutely no excuse that the Giants continue to have to spend significant free agent money to build a bullpen every offseason.

Peter | April 16, 2009 10:32 PM | Reply

Lefty, you cut Sabean and management too much slack. If the whole system is based on setting up for 2010, then why the hell waste money on Renteria and Johnson and bother with Aurilia and Uribe and stall the progress of the Kevin Frandsen's. Last year was supposed to be the rebuilding year. They claimed they were putting a competitive team on the field and they are absolutely not competitive. Zito gives up already one home run tonight.

Management is dysfunctional and really us fans suffer. They should not have wasted so much of last year on the waste of a product they put up for the first half of the year and then let the youngsters play more in the later half of the season. Schierholz was kept down the whole season until post-Olympics.

But Bochy has proven he cannot motivate this team. It is time for a shake-up and Bochy has to be the first to go.

Bring in a real Giant in Bob Brenly!!!

joey g | April 17, 2009 12:47 AM | Reply

The Giants are getting killed in L.A. right now, facing a sweep. I ust wanted to lament to all of you. I live in L.A. Do you know what a diehard vocal Giants fan goes through when he lives in L.A. after they get swept, and after they have played the series they have (11-1, losing on a walk in bottom 9th, and a beating which includes Zito surrendering the ulk of the runs)?

Come-Freaking-On Giants. You couldn't win one of these games for gods sake?

Oh, I have to get back. Renteria just committed an error.

This sucks!

Pip | April 17, 2009 1:35 AM | Reply

I'm just gonna put it out there...

Bonds is at home just sitting on the couch.

I miss all the air getting sucked out of phone park when Barry came to bat. I miss the fear he struck in pitchers.

Sure he is a jerk, but he's OUR jerk.

P.S.
Good call on Bob Brenly Peter.

johnp | April 17, 2009 2:00 AM | Reply

Other than the fact that that statement is anathema, and it shall not be uttered, simply *because* - I fully agree with you.

I want someone to make a T-shirt, with a portrait of Bonds, and the statement "I fought the law and... I won."

Who else can step up to the plate, take the best the Feds can throw at him, and WIN?

I would love to see Barry on the field. But yes, it's not allowed to say this...

Ryan | April 17, 2009 3:37 AM | Reply

Lefty,

I think you are making far, far too much of the 'three level's removed' bit.

Let us consider:

1. Posey will be in AA soon, or--as some are saying--he's AAA bound shortly. The word during spring is that the giants thought he could keep his head 'above water' were he MLB, and everything about his treatment so far, is screaming 2010 roster spot.
2. Alderson and Bumgarner are both expected to be in AA shortly, and are both likely for a cup of tea this year. As you are aware, a pitcher that gets a late season cup of tea call up, usually competes for a roster and or rotation spot the following spring, which would be 2010.
3. Villalona has looked very good so far, and if his good year continues, he will have set himself up for a start at AA next year, and a call up if things are going well there. That would be a 2010 callup, mind you.
4. If Crawford continues to play well this year, he'll be in position to be called up in 2010. The same goes for Noonan.

One could go on.

Now, even if these things happen, and there is a lot of contingency involved, all we are talking about is a good 'lets see just what we got' 2010 that may foster authentic enthusiasm for 2011.

ELM replied to comment from Ryan | April 17, 2009 12:04 PM | Reply

Ryan, remember, I was writing about players making significant contributions in 2010. Cups of coffee (or tea, if you prefer) do not count. I agree Posey is best positioned to be a contributor next year. With extreme luck, either MadBum or Alderson might be, but to expect both?

Re. Villalona and Noonan: If either is called up to the Giants at any time in 2010 other than September, I'll let you write the main blog post that day. You can title it, "See, I Told You!"

Lyle | April 17, 2009 10:54 AM | Reply

I agree, Lefty. I've been looking toward 2012 for over a year, and I still see no reason to change that view. I do think Posey could be in SF next year, but that's not etched in stone. I'd expect MadBum and Alderson in late 2011. Maybe Crawford can replace Renteria in 2011. But 2012 is the target date I'm looking toward.

damon | April 26, 2009 11:34 PM | Reply

If David Price, Matt Weiters, Matt LaPorta, Casey Weathers, Rick Porcello are likely to come up to the bigs during the last half of THIS year(some of them are already there), then why can't Bumgarner and Alderson? they were all drafted in the same year. The Giants' kids may not become saviors of the team, but expecting positive contributions shouldn't be considered lofty for their level of talent.

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