This is the time of year of preseason prediction lists*, top-five question lists, and all sorts of angst about the final bench spot or bullpen job.
They're all fine and dandy thoughts to keep us distracted until the first pitch of the first game, but they're all incidental. In the grand scheme of things, Eugenio Velez vs. Andres Torres, or Joe Martinez vs. Keiichi Yabu, or Can Spring Phenom X Continue to a) Hit b) Pitch c) Bring Intangible Goodness to the Big-League Roster, or Will He Be in Altoona by June? are irrelevant.
The only real question for the Giants concerns the fate of Brian Sabean. Those of you who won't rest until his head is on a platter, no reason to read on. Nothing he does between now and the end of the year will placate you.
But those of us still in evaulation mode realize this season is crucial. The Giants could be on the cusp of a renaissance similar to 1986 and 1997, as Hank Schulman wrote here, but injuries, false promises, and bad front-office moves could doom this team to another half-decade or more of bleccch. (That's Yiddish for "Pirates.") And even loyal blithering idiots like me will take their dwindling cash reserves elsewhere if the 90 losses keep piling up.
So back to our One Big Question at hand. What can Brian Sabean do? He isn't on the hook for injuries unless he hires Dr. Hieronymus Jekyll as head trainer and only lets him work during the full moon. He rightfully would take blame, too, if Bruce Bochy sends Tim Lincecum to the mound every other day or makes Matt Cain throw 180 pitches and finish what he starts like real men should, but let's leave pitch counts for another discussion.
As for free agency, the last six months have been promising simply for avoiding a complete shipwreck amid the winter rocks. Renteria, you say? Patience, friend. Let's wait til April 9 before declaring him a complete bust. And if he is, he's a short term bust. He'll be no epic fail as the Zito and perhaps Rowand contracts are shaping up to be.
So Sabean gets a provisional C for Renteria, final grade to be determined. But the rest of his free agent work this winter gets high marks. Randy Johnson? Oh, yeah. Affeldt and Howry, sure. Even minor-league contracts for Uribe and Aurilia were sound strategy, whether or not you think they deserve to make the squad. Injuries and luck might bollox up the final free-agent grade, but conceptually he was on the mark.
Tests 2 and 3 will be the trade market and the draft. Let's take the draft first. Hard to botch it when you're picking top-ten, you say? Ha. Just ask fans of the Pittsburgh Blecch how hard it is. Fact is, since the Giants decided first-round draft picks were a good thing after the mid-decade punt-the-pick strategy, they've gone Lincecum-Bumgarner-Posey. Any complaints? (Actually, I found one. Someone recently criticized the Giants for taking Tim Alderson instead of Rick Porcello, who looks like he'll be in the Tigers' rotation to start the year. I can't find the article now. My apologies.)
As for the trade test, Sabean has already whistled half-way past the graveyard. He could have dealt Jonathan Sanchez this winter and held off. He turned Jack Taschner into a interesting 21-year-old pitching prospect. But the pressure to make a big splash between now and August will grow if the Giants are in contention. It's going to be a delicate dance: Go for broke, cha-cha-cha? Keep all prospects, cha-cha-cha? It helps to imagine Sabean in Cuban heels and a half-unbuttoned shirt, snapping his fingers over his head.
Sabean haters don't want to hear it, but he's done enough the past year to give himself six months more probation. If he can draft another Madison Bumgarner in June and pull off another Ryan Vogelsong-ish for Jason Schmidt-ish trade or two in July, then I'll be the first to open the door to his biodiesel-fueled limo when he steps to the curb to sign his contract extension. As ZZ Top and their guest singer Janet Jackson once said: He's been bad, he's been good, so it comes down to this: What has Brian Sabean done for me lately?
* Sorry, no division predictions. If you insist, at least go for the funny ones.
