PM UPDATE: Sergio Romo is back, and Kevin Frandsen is heading to Fresno. Hank Schulman has tonight’s lineup: Pablo Sandoval is at first base, bumping Ishikawa to the bench.
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No surprise that the Giants are talking to other teams about Jonathan Sanchez. You don’t need a Jayson Stark rumor to know Sanchez will be a main topic of discussion between now and July 31, just as he was over the winter. Whether he stays or goes depends on the Giants’ level of stubbornness and/or desperation. Stark writes that they were “shot down by Florida on Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu,” but he doesn’t say whether those were one-for-one proposals, leftovers from the winter discussions, et cetera. It’s vaguely worded — on purpose, I bet — so don’t assume from Stark’s article that the Giants have recently proposed a Sanchez-for-Uggla (or Cantu) trade that the Marlins rejected.
Leave aside for now the specifics of the trade bait. Instead, let’s look at Sanchez’s potential replacements if he leaves. Longer-term, there’s plenty of pitching in the system. Even if Madison Bumgarner and Tim Alderson aren’t quite ready next year, there are internal candidates or off-season scrap-heap free agents who can hold down the fort until the younger guys are ready.
What about this year? Who will fill the rotation if Sanchez goes away between now and July? There’s a miniscule chance Bumgarner or Alderson could get a surprise call this summer, but I doubt it. Here are the more likely choices:
* Kevin Pucetas. He’s 24, and with two months of decent work in AAA under his belt, he’s finally age-appropriate for his league. His peripheral numbers — HRs and BBs allowed, strikeouts — have declined in AAA. He’s not a big strikeout pitcher anyway, and even though his ERA is a very tidy 3.52 in a hitter’s league, career-high walk (2.7/9 IP) and HR (1.1/9 IP) rates and a career-low K rate (5.3/9 IP) might not bode well for a quick jump to the majors. Small-sample size warning, but the major-league equivalent of his work in Fresno is an unsightly 5.61 FIP (that’s ERA adjusted for fielding and park biases). His career work in the minors translates into a 4.98 FIP. For comparison, Jonathan Sanchez has a career major-league FIP of 4.17. This year it’s 4.60.
* Joe Martinez. He showed enough in spring training to make the team as a long reliever. He won’t be back until after the All-Star break, the team says, and add a few weeks to that if he’s to come back as a starter. Perhaps in September, but the timing doesn’t seem right to slot him in as a fifth starter in July or August. If he hadn’t taken a ball to the skull, he’d probably be candidate #1.
* Patrick Misch. Misch had his shot as a replacement starter, didn’t make much of it, and was converted to a long reliever this year. He’s done well in AAA, but got cuffed around in a brief call-up this month. He might get another chance, but I doubt the team will cut him any slack.
* Ryan Sadowski, Billy Sadler, Steve Hammond. Other starters at AAA. Sadler is a converted reliever giving up too many baserunners (but only 2 home runs so far), Hammond is organizational filler, and Sadowski is in AAA for the first time as a 26–year-old. All unlikely, though Sadler has more of a shot because he’s on the 40–man roster.
* Free agents. The most famous unemployed pitcher is Pedro Martinez. Peruse this list for others. It’s possible one or more of them by mid-July will be available and healthy and able to pitch with league-average stuff every fifth day. Until we get more data on their situations (Odalis Perez: AWOL? Mark Mulder: toast?), it’s hard to speculate. Should the Giants theoretically try to sign a healthy Pedro Martinez? Of course. But if he’s truly good to go, at least half of major-league baseball will be talking to him, too.
My proposal: If the Giants can sign a healthy free agent for a low, low price, perhaps with some nice incentives to shoot for, go for it. Plan B is Pucetas if he’s still pitching well in July. Plan C is Misch until Martinez gets healthy.
