When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

05.22.2009
Is Miguel Cabrera the Most Ridiculous Trade Target the Giants Could Aim For? No.

The Giants’ horrific (and not unexpected) offensive struggles this year often spark two reactions:

1) No need to panic. This is a rebuilding team, the rebuild is going according to plan, and there are a lot of good young hitters to be sprinkled into the lineup in the next year or two.

2) Make a #$%^%$ trade right now. Please.

The first reaction is all about 2011 and 2012. Just like the addition of Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa has done nothing to recharge this offense, no one coming up the ladder will make this lineup appreciably better in 2010.

The second reaction is all about October 2009 and the slim but intriguing chance the Giants could participate post-seasonally.

May I suggest a third way: To be competitive next year, let alone this year, the Giants need to bring in another hitter or two no matter what happens with their young prospects. I explain here that those who think a strict youth movement will produce an improved offense next year need to think again.

The ideal, as I noted yesterday, is to trade young pitching for a major-league ready hitter or two whom the team can control for several years and whose performance won’t be tanked by Mays Field’s unique dimensions. For example, this guy probably isn’t a good candidate. But this guy might be.

If young and relatively cheap aren’t available, the next group the Giants should peruse are the relatively young and expensive. What if the Giants could give a team salary relief, trade a few prospects but not their bluest of blue chips, and get someone who’s guaranteed to hit the snot out of the ball for many years to come? Someone like this

Let’s get the facts out of the way:

* Miguel Cabrera is a ferocious hitter and he’s only 26 years old. Last year he hit 37 home runs, had a 130 OPS+, walked 56 times, and it was his worst year since 2004.

* Cabrera is a first baseman working his way toward DH.

* Cabrera is owed $140 million between now and the end of 2015.

That last one probably stopped you cold. There are two ways to reduce that number: Directly, with the Tigers agreeing to eat some of it; or indirectly, by trading players with significant salaries to Detroit. More about this in a second, but first, let’s talk prospects, because the Giants would surely need to give them up. I would try to center negotiations around Angel Villalona. In a best case scenario, he’s the next-generation Cabrera, but even more defensively challenged. (Cabrera didn’t move to first base until he was in his mid-20s.) Then I would add Jonathan Sanchez to the mix. Blue-chip slugger, rotation-ready starter with big upside. A couple more prospects would probably be necessary, and I’d try like hell to keep the conversation away from Alderson and Bumgarner. Not enough, you say? I’ll remind you that Detroit traded seven prospects, only two of whom were blue-chip, to Florida in December 2007, and Detroit also received Dontrelle Willis. (Silly them, but that’s another story.) If the Tigers insist on more, the Giants should insist Detroit eat some of Cabrera’s salary.

Speaking of which, if I were the Giants, I would ask Detroit to take Aaron Rowand. They’ve got Curtis Granderson locked into CF for a while, but they’re probably losing Magglio Ordonez. Perhaps Rowand at ~$12 M a year would be an acceptable sub (less O, more D) at an outfield corner for the aging Maggs, who would earn $33 M in 2010–11 if the Tigers were to exercise their club options.

So the deal would look like this:

Giants get Cabrera and net payroll boost of ~$8–9 M through 2012, then boost of ~$21–22 M through 2015. (Remember than Barry Zito comes off the books after 2013 if they don’t exercise his 2014 option. Here’s a look at the Giants’ future salary commitments. And while we’re at it, why not try to restructure Zito’s contract)

Tigers get Rowand, Sanchez, Villalona, one or two other prospects (Henry Sosa? Scott Barnes?), and clear more than $100 M from their books.

Discuss.



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While we are dreaming why not put together a similar trade for Hanley Ramirez? Florida loves to trade away its talent for prospects and I would have no problem including Alderson in a deal with Villalona for Hanley.

I would love to trade Rowand, Villalona and Sanchez for Cabrera, but Detroit is currently in first place. We'd have to hope that either they slide out of contention or the economy pushes them into a corner.

Thank you for pointing that out, CA. I was assuming both but forgot to say so.

The point of the post was more that there might be ways for the Giants to explore deals for established, high-ceiling hitters, even those with big contracts, without giving up the store.

This team is going to need to bring in hitters from the outside next year, or we'll have more the same pain.

I was thinking about this yesterday. Villalona has shown huge power potential, with disturbing hints of being lazy and sucking at defense. I would definitely be on board with trading him for a great major league hitter that has shown signs of being lazy and sucking at defense.

That's not fair. From what I've read, Villalona works hard on his defense, he still takes grounders at 3B, because he hopes to convince the Giants that he can still play there.

Lefty--I'm not sure I agree with this, given the cost and the potential value of Villalona.

Our issue is losing too many games 2-1 and 1-0. We might be that rare team for whom the standard playbook--clog the bases and get a big hit--needs to be thrown out in favor of a an approach that would complement our pitching.

Here's a question I'd like to see addressed by someone with some statistical expertise. I've seen various figures suggesting that, as a general rule, base stealers need to have a success rate of about 75% to make a real difference, but that's assuming an average offensive output. It seems to me that with an offense on the level of the Giants, that number would be drastically lower, somewhere just above 50 percent--i.e., on this team, the chances of advancing someone from first to home are quite slim. I'd like to see the team write a new playbook while they wait for their sluggers to move through the minor leagues. An example: given how poorly they've scored runners from third base, maybe they should be running a squeeze once a game. Makes no sense on a normal offense, but we're not a normal team and perhaps we should be applying the rules of asymmetrical warfare to the baseball diamond.

What I'm arguing--and perhaps a stats person could tell me whether this is true--is that on a team with low slugging and OBP, the value of speed, bunts, squeezes and hit and runs is magnified quite dramatically.

Dare I say it? That's the way the Dodger's won in the sixties. A different era--I know--but it was damn fun to watch, and it would be much cheaper to implement.

I've been thinking this since I heard that Sabean believed that the league would be moving more towards speed and defense, and of course we got all that pitching. I totally agree: something like the Dodgers in the 1960's, with Koufax and Drysdales, and Maury Wills and Tommy and Willie Davis.

What you say makes sense, that's the way it was done in the early 20th Century when Ty Cobb and other stole a lot of bases and played station to station baseball.

At the risk of being repetitive, what in Sabean's history suggests to you that he is capable of making this deal?

I like the deal, although I'm not sure that either Lewis or Winn are the answer in CF. I might even give up Alderson instead of Sanchez, who (prior to Wednesday) was diminishing his trade value with every outing.

What about dealing for Matt Holliday? He's not giving the A's much, they are going to lose him at the end of the year anyway, and it's already clear that they are not going to contend this year. Would Beane reverse course and trade Holliday for a couple of prospects?

I think it's been the assumption of most people that Beane was going to flip Holliday this mid-season if they are not competitive. Given their current record, that seems pretty likely.

He gave up a bundle of players for him, I think he expects to at least that much, if not more.

50 -- I know Sabean has made a couple bonehead trades in recent years, but you and many others who say he's incapable of making good trades forget that he spent most of his first seven or eight years with the Giants absolutely fleecing other teams. I won't run down the list, but you can check it out here.

Now, if your argument is that Sabean no longer has the mojo, say so, but if you simply say that there's nothing in his history to make you confident in his trading ability, you need to revisit his history.

Zito - "if they don’t exercise his 2014 option" hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

I tend to be more in the first camp, but certainly acquiring a legit right handed bat (for an appreciable amount of time - no rent-a-players) without losing too much in the way of prospects would be the ideal scenario for the Giants.

I love this idea, I just don't think it will happen

Acquiring Cabrera would be awesome. I think the Giants entire offense would be lifted enormously by having a true no. 4 hitter and moving Molina to the back of the order. The Giants have enough pitching that they can afford to make a trade and play for the future. Cain's stock is up right now and I would be all for trading Cain for the right package. The Giants don't control him throughout the period in which they are likely to be serious division contenders and he would bring back an enormous bounty of young bats in a trade. Everyone's been ragging on Sanchez, but I think it would be a huge mistake to trade him right now since his stock is low at the moment and I think he is going to have an outstanding season after which he will be worth a lot more. Sanchez hasn't developed consistency yet this season, but the Giants skipped his start and I think that has delayed him finding his groove.

However, all-in-all I would most like to see the Giants target an unproven huge potential (almost can't miss) minor league bat and trade unproven but equally promising pitching to acquire the bat, and continue to build for the future. I would trade Molina and Winn for prospects while they still have value and try my best to unload Rowand and use this year to give prospects some extensive experience. Really, could they do worse offensively than the current Giants squad? I think Bochy would have to be fired in order to do this because it is not humanly possible for him to bench vets even when prospects need to be evaluated, as was demonstrated last fall by all the ABs Aurilia and McClain inexplicably received. The Giants completely missed their chance to evaluate Ishikawa and Schierholtz the entire second half of last year when they weren't competing and had every opportunity, but they didn't do it. Tragic.

Note: I love Cain as a pitcher just in case this post is misconstrued.

Cain will be a Cy Young contender this year..no way you trade him ever ever ever

Cain is under contract for 2 1/2 more years during which time it is possible that the Giants will win the division, but not terribly likely. Yet, 2 1/2 years of Cain at a low price may be just what a small/mid market team which hopes that it can compete today so desperately needs. It is not likely that the Giants will resign Cain in 2 1/2 years because his FA price will be astronomical and they will have to pay Lincecum a lot more as well as soon as he hits arbitration. The Giants have fantastic starting pitching coming down the pipeline in the minors (Bumgarner, Alderson, Sosa, and others). Cain's value is at an all-time high right now and the Giants can probably get the maximum value which they will ever get in a trade. The Giants are desperate for a young middle of the order bat which can serve as the cornerstone for the future. Cain could bring this in a trade and more. The Giants obviously have to find the right cornerstone, but if they do they shouldn't hesitate to pull the trigger.

Also, I wouldn't trade Villalona even if Cabrera or some other superstar was "blocking" him after a trade. The Giants have a shortage of young power bats and a surplus of pitching. If Villalona is ready in two years and Cabrera's locked up for five, then trade Cabrera away when you are sure Villalona's ready.

I think Lefty's point is that the Tigers would not accept the deal unless they get some good young players back. They gave up Maybin and Milller to get Cabrera (though they did accept Willis too).

A package led by Rowand and Sanchez is then not going to cut it for them, unless we give up some more quality arms, probably a total of 5-7 bodies, depending on the quality given up, and they will most definitely want one of our top prospects, so if it's not Villalona, then at minimum, it would have to be Alderson (since Bumgarner would be an automatic NO), plus probably Sosa, Waldis Joaquin, Pucetas, and Matos too. They appear to like live arms, so we would have to lean towards those prospects.

I understood Lefty's argument fine (I think), but I just think that if you have a shortage of bats in the org and a surplus of pitching then you do not trade away your second best bat overall and your best power bat... you trade pitching and pitching alone (unless the position players are mere token throw-ins).

In response to Sabean having a good track record with trades I will agree that he pulled a few off in the past but really nothing over the last 4 years that has been significant. For over 5 years this team has known the clock was running out on Bonds and should have found a replacement that could have played with Bonds on the field for his final years and then stepped in to take over once he was gone. 4 years of losing baseball and the problem has been in front of everyones faces yet Sabean has refused to address it. There is no end in sight the way things are going. Sabean is afraid to trade young pitching probably partly because of the Liriano deal with the Twins but that doesn't excuse the fact that he isn't getting it done as a GM over the last 4 years, I don't think anyone can argue that he is.

My biggest knock on Sabean is that he has refused to commit fully to a rebuilding process which means putting your faith in guys like Schierholtz, Burriss, Frandsen, Ishikaka, and Bowker while staying away from signing guys like Rowand, Aurelia, Uribe, Renteria, and the other veterans that don't do anything to help this team win. They are expensive and prevent younger players from getting a shot to prove themselves or prove they don't belong so we can move on and they prevent management from signing guys like Tex and Manny.

A compitant GM would have also found a way this offseason to inject some life into this lineup instead of investing over 20 million in relief pitching, a 45 year old dinosaur, and a soft hitting shortstop especially when there was middle of the order potential in the free agent market for bottom basement prices such as Dunn, Abreu, Burrell, and how about Ibanez. Sabean has to go and Bochy should go with him.

Lefty, I think others have covered the essentials, but I just dont see Detroit moving cabrera while they are in first...Sanchez for Ordonez is another matter...they could save something like $12 mill if they move him...

And what if Vllalona is more Pujols than Cantu...I dont think you can risk potentially losing such a player...

this clown said with the the addition of sandoval its done nothin to recharge this offense.. think again. we are now 34-28.. a lot better than most of u clowns wouldve projected. we could use a big hitter but dont necessarily need 1 unless were tryin to win a ring.. which i think is a long shot for us. give us 2 to 3 years with our prospects movin up and we should be good. i hate watchin us lose but we are winnin more then we are losin and doin much more then expected. so be happy with where were at compared to last season

ok, here's the deal. The giants are in such good shape for the future with all of their young talent in the minors and the majors (though there are few amounts). WIth the top prospects, being Villalona, who could potentially be just as good as Cabrera, maybe Pujols, Bumgarner and Alderson, new draft pick Wheeler, and even Buster Posey, plus the talent they have locked up in the majors for at least 2-3-4 years, they are in FAR too good of shape in 2-3 years to deal them. Even the lower touted prospects shouldn't deserve to be traded, because their ceiling is pretty high up there.

If we deal these players now, our set up seasons for 2010-11 could be ruined. The potential for these seasons is the WORLD SERIES PEOPLE!!! We dont want this to be destroyed. If anyone says we need a bat this year, they are full of balogna. They overlook the possibility of a world series ring!!! Possibly two! or maybe even a LOT more than that! We will be a GREAT team, my fellow Giants fans, just be patient. Miguel Cabrera alone isnt going to get us to where we need to be.

And by the way, Anonymous, the one right above me, you are 100% correct. We are wayyyyyyyy better than anyone thought that we could be, and plus the great things we have at the majors right now. Did we forget Pablo Sandoval is going to be a .300 hitter for us for a LONG TIME? He is one of our prospects that's already in the majors. He's one of a future ton of new, gret players that the Giants will have.

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