The Giants’ horrific (and not unexpected) offensive struggles this year often spark two reactions:
1) No need to panic. This is a rebuilding team, the rebuild is going according to plan, and there are a lot of good young hitters to be sprinkled into the lineup in the next year or two.
2) Make a #$%^%$ trade right now. Please.
The first reaction is all about 2011 and 2012. Just like the addition of Pablo Sandoval and Travis Ishikawa has done nothing to recharge this offense, no one coming up the ladder will make this lineup appreciably better in 2010.
The second reaction is all about October 2009 and the slim but intriguing chance the Giants could participate post-seasonally.
May I suggest a third way: To be competitive next year, let alone this year, the Giants need to bring in another hitter or two no matter what happens with their young prospects. I explain here that those who think a strict youth movement will produce an improved offense next year need to think again.
The ideal, as I noted yesterday, is to trade young pitching for a major-league ready hitter or two whom the team can control for several years and whose performance won’t be tanked by Mays Field’s unique dimensions. For example, this guy probably isn’t a good candidate. But this guy might be.
If young and relatively cheap aren’t available, the next group the Giants should peruse are the relatively young and expensive. What if the Giants could give a team salary relief, trade a few prospects but not their bluest of blue chips, and get someone who’s guaranteed to hit the snot out of the ball for many years to come? Someone like this?
Let’s get the facts out of the way:
* Miguel Cabrera is a ferocious hitter and he’s only 26 years old. Last year he hit 37 home runs, had a 130 OPS+, walked 56 times, and it was his worst year since 2004.
* Cabrera is a first baseman working his way toward DH.
* Cabrera is owed $140 million between now and the end of 2015.
That last one probably stopped you cold. There are two ways to reduce that number: Directly, with the Tigers agreeing to eat some of it; or indirectly, by trading players with significant salaries to Detroit. More about this in a second, but first, let’s talk prospects, because the Giants would surely need to give them up. I would try to center negotiations around Angel Villalona. In a best case scenario, he’s the next-generation Cabrera, but even more defensively challenged. (Cabrera didn’t move to first base until he was in his mid-20s.) Then I would add Jonathan Sanchez to the mix. Blue-chip slugger, rotation-ready starter with big upside. A couple more prospects would probably be necessary, and I’d try like hell to keep the conversation away from Alderson and Bumgarner. Not enough, you say? I’ll remind you that Detroit traded seven prospects, only two of whom were blue-chip, to Florida in December 2007, and Detroit also received Dontrelle Willis. (Silly them, but that’s another story.) If the Tigers insist on more, the Giants should insist Detroit eat some of Cabrera’s salary.
Speaking of which, if I were the Giants, I would ask Detroit to take Aaron Rowand. They’ve got Curtis Granderson locked into CF for a while, but they’re probably losing Magglio Ordonez. Perhaps Rowand at ~$12 M a year would be an acceptable sub (less O, more D) at an outfield corner for the aging Maggs, who would earn $33 M in 2010–11 if the Tigers were to exercise their club options.
So the deal would look like this:
Giants get Cabrera and net payroll boost of ~$8–9 M through 2012, then boost of ~$21–22 M through 2015. (Remember than Barry Zito comes off the books after 2013 if they don’t exercise his 2014 option. Here’s a look at the Giants’ future salary commitments. And while we’re at it, why not try to restructure Zito’s contract)
Tigers get Rowand, Sanchez, Villalona, one or two other prospects (Henry Sosa? Scott Barnes?), and clear more than $100 M from their books.
Discuss.
