I’ve heard the following hosannas about Matt Cain several times this year, most recently after Cain recovered from a horrendous start in Colorado last week to throw six shutout innings: “He’s becoming a real pitcher.” “This is his breakout year.” “Dark-horse Cy Young.”
The biggest espouser of this line of thought is Mike Krukow, who knows a thing or two about pitching. But Krukow isn’t sanctified gospel. He also said this last week: “The Giants can’t afford to get into a slugfest with the Nationals.”
OK, he was half-right. The Giants didn’t have to outslug the Nats as long as the Nats’ pitching and defense took the field.
But I digress. I want to know this: Should we look at Matt Cain’s shiny precious 2.61 ERA and wonder if the excitement is justified? Among his peripheral stats (walks, Ks, home runs allowed, and average velocity) there are trends worth watching suspiciously. Fantasy geeks who pay little attention beyond the numbers are already panicking:
There are a ton of issues with his season though, starting with his unintentional walk rate, already higher than I was comfortable with, has now shot up to 4.3 per nine. He's striking out one fewer hitter per nine than he did last year, and his velocity appears to be around one mph short of last year's average—which in turn is one mph slower than 2007. He's managed to survive the high number of walks with a bit of luck; Cain has stranded 91 percent of his baserunners (the league average is 71 percent) and he's getting the benefit of a .254 BABIP. That he has stranded so many runners is a mystery as well, given that his homer rate is the highest it has ever been at 1.2 HR/9.
Let’s break some of these down.
4.3 UBB/9: Little good can come of it, to be sure. Cain walked three in the first inning at Coors Field but escaped largely because Todd Helton mis-timed a 3–1 change-up and hit into a double play. Call it a great pitch at the right time, and it was. But it was also luck in the widest of senses: any ball hit, no matter how poorly, can result in a hit. If you give teams free passes, sooner or later a harmless bleeder or blooper will become a damaging hammer blow, which brings us to…
6.63 K/9: That’s still a healthy rate, but as BP’s Marc Normandin notes above, it’s a K lower than last year. Fewer strikeouts mean more balls in play, and please see above about the inevitability of bloopers and bleeders. When unluckiness arrives, it’s better to have a clean slate, but Cain’s walk rate is going in the wrong direction.
Lower fastball velocity: One explanation is that Cain has decided to cut back on velocity to improve his command. So why is he walking more batters this year? And more last year than the year before? And while velocity can be overrated if a pitcher throws his cheese over the meat of the plate, velocity can sometimes help hide mistakes. Randy Johnson should know a little something about this. Let’s ask him: "I don't get away with as many mistakes as I once did.” He said that after the Nationals hit three homers in five innings against him last night.
1.2 HR/9: Speaking of home runs, Cain is allowing a fair number, though three came in his one truly bad start on May 2. In his best years, Curt Schilling preferred to challenge hitters when he had a good lead or with no one on base. If he gave up the occasional homer, it was likely a solo shot. In 2001 he led the league with 37 taters served; he only walked 39. All five of Cain’s surrendered HRs this year have been solo, but with Cain on pace to walk roughly 100 batters, someone’s going to do damage with men on base.
So what gives? Is there a grand mystery behind the discrepancy between Cain’s excellent ERA and his mediocre peripheral skills? If you answer, “He’s finally learning how to win,” you need some remedial spanking.
Maybe the answer is that he’s making key pitches when necessary, hence the high stranded runner rate mentioned above. If so, can we count on him to keep doing it all year? Quite possibly. I’m sure stranger things have happened.
Maybe the answer is that he’s getting better defense this year: the stat called FIP, or fielding-independent pitching, shows he’s nearly a run higher than his career average. Maybe throwing more curves and fewer fastballs has something to do with it.
Maybe the answer is that we’re only six starts into Cain’s 2009 season, and that 32 or 33 starts will be a much better test whether he can strike out fewer, walk more, give up more home runs, and continue to win half his starts with an ERA in the mid-twos.
I’m not saying Cain isn’t a good pitcher. But it seems odd that this, his so-called breakout year, isn’t one of domination but of getting by despite a lot of indicators that he shouldn’t be.
