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The Alderson Factor

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For those who pay little attention to the minor leagues, say hello to Tim Alderson, the Giants’ second-best pitching prospect. At the tender age of 19, he led the extremely hitter-friendly Cal League last year in ERA. Now he’s moved up a notch to Double-A, along with the pitcher ahead of him in the prospect rankings, Madison Bumgarner.

The first results of the promotion are in, and they’re enough to get some gears turning in my head. Here are the numbers from Alderson’s start Sunday:

6 2/3 IP
0 hits
1 walk
10 strikeouts

That’s not a typo. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote this morning that “Double-A success is the kind of thing that gets you to the big leagues, and Alderson's status remains what it was entering the year. His ceiling is nowhere close to that of teammate Madison Bumgarner [who makes his Double-A debut tonight], but he could be closer to the major league rotation.”

Granted, the AA Eastern League where Alderson now resides is pitcher friendly, but you have to wonder. What if he continues to mow down the opposition for the next two or three months? What if he makes a strong case for being big-league ready on opening day 2010?

It could mean a couple things. First, it would give the Giants the confidence to say no thanks to Randy Johnson if the Unit wants to pitch next year and wants a lot of money. Or, if Johnson finishes strong and both sides want to re-up, Alderson could make the team more willing to trade Jonathan Sanchez. Or — feel free to roast me over the coals for even suggesting this — Alderson could become trade bait himself.

This is all highly speculative, of course. One magnificent start in the high minors does not a big-league starter make, whether the pitcher is 20 or 24 or 28 years old. But sooner or later this team needs to figure out how to deal some of its pitching wealth for hitters. I understand the front office’s squeamishness after the Nathan/Liriano fiasco, the Accardo and Martis trades, and the near-disaster of a potential Lincecum-for-Alexis Rios swap, but I’m not talking about mortgaging the farm. I’m talking about selective, strategic trades for young hitters with upside.


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Header photo courtesy of Flickr user eviltomthai under a Creative Commons license.