For those who pay little attention to the minor leagues, say hello to Tim Alderson, the Giants’ second-best pitching prospect. At the tender age of 19, he led the extremely hitter-friendly Cal League last year in ERA. Now he’s moved up a notch to Double-A, along with the pitcher ahead of him in the prospect rankings, Madison Bumgarner.
The first results of the promotion are in, and they’re enough to get some gears turning in my head. Here are the numbers from Alderson’s start Sunday:
6 2/3 IP
0 hits
1 walk
10 strikeouts
That’s not a typo. Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote this morning that “Double-A success is the kind of thing that gets you to the big leagues, and Alderson's status remains what it was entering the year. His ceiling is nowhere close to that of teammate Madison Bumgarner [who makes his Double-A debut tonight], but he could be closer to the major league rotation.”
Granted, the AA Eastern League where Alderson now resides is pitcher friendly, but you have to wonder. What if he continues to mow down the opposition for the next two or three months? What if he makes a strong case for being big-league ready on opening day 2010?
It could mean a couple things. First, it would give the Giants the confidence to say no thanks to Randy Johnson if the Unit wants to pitch next year and wants a lot of money. Or, if Johnson finishes strong and both sides want to re-up, Alderson could make the team more willing to trade Jonathan Sanchez. Or — feel free to roast me over the coals for even suggesting this — Alderson could become trade bait himself.
This is all highly speculative, of course. One magnificent start in the high minors does not a big-league starter make, whether the pitcher is 20 or 24 or 28 years old. But sooner or later this team needs to figure out how to deal some of its pitching wealth for hitters. I understand the front office’s squeamishness after the Nathan/Liriano fiasco, the Accardo and Martis trades, and the near-disaster of a potential Lincecum-for-Alexis Rios swap, but I’m not talking about mortgaging the farm. I’m talking about selective, strategic trades for young hitters with upside.
I am all for trading Alderson if it means getting us a middle of the order bat. Our rotation after this season is fine with the kid, Cain, Zito, Sanchez, and either Pucetas/Sosa early or Bumgarner if he is ready. That would leave Alderson out of the mix and with all signals pointing towards Sabean drafting more pitching this year, we could afford to give up a top prospect if we can get a solid middle of the order bat for him. Maybe Holliday mid season or Michael Young to play short?? There should be plenty of teams that will be willing to deal and the risk is definitely worth the reward.
The Giants are willing to take on salaries but the A's are not going to give up Holliday without getting some good prospects in return, they will want their pound of flesh.
The Giants are looking to pick up players whom their current teams want to dump their salary and not ask for much in return. They are not looking to add a rental player for this season, they would want to get a player who they think they can sign for the future and could be a part of our future.
Wasn't Accardo just DFA'd?
Accardo and Martis have not been total disasters, Accardo is in AAA right now and Martis is barely keeping his head above water in the majors.
I think we are getting ahead of ourselves. Alderson, I think, will need to prove himself in AAA before getting the call to the majors, much like Cain. Bumgarner will probably have to do the same. I don't see them getting bumped up again to Fresno this season, the Giants have been relatively hesitant to move their best younger prospects quickly, like Cain and Jerome Williams, but has jumped college players like Lincecum and Sanchez.
Still, I believe that they will probably be ready by 2010 sometime. If Sanchez can have a nice 2009 season, I think he's a good trading chip to consider. Depending on how well Bumgarner and Alderson do, I would also consider Cain because we only control him until 2011 and if we can't sign an extension by 2010, then we will have to consider trading him then, and get a blockbuster package much like Haren.
Then our 2011 rotation could look like Lincecum, Bumgarner, Alderson, Zito, and maybe Sanchez, plus Posey, Crawford, and maybe Villalona should be up by then, there should be at least one or two players we receive in trade for Sanchez and Cain who are MLB ready, plus Burriss, Sandoval, and probably Lewis and Schierholtz.
That's why I've been preaching patience with the rebuilding process. We still don't know who will be holding positions at the major league level. Sure we could trade Sanchez and/or Cain right now and improve the team, but I think it'll be better to wait until the young prospects are ready to come up (you never know when an arm will blow out or a prospect regress), and we might still need Sanchez and Cain going forward. Once they are ready, then we look into trading off surplus and filling in gaps. And the more seasoned and proven our pitchers get, the more we should get for them in trade, particularly Sanchez.
Unfortunately, every day that goes by Sanchez' value goes down. If we had traded him at the beginning of the season during ST, we could've cashed him in for a decent bat. It's not likely to happen any time in the near future. Every time he goes out there and shows that he cannot consistenly throw strikes, his value goes down that much more. This is going to be another case like Lowry of hanging on to the player too long.
I'd love to see us trade Sanchez and Pucetas for Holliday or Swisher. Is that a total pipe dream? I think Sabean probably shopped Pucetas around in the offseason, though.
Sanchez is going to get better. He's been horribly mishandled, bounced between relief and the rotation, pitched in the WBC, then made to wait 10 days between starts a few weeks ago. Sanchez' struggles are not particularly surprising, as he's still learning to pitch.
Im all for it especially if we end up drafting a pitcher in the first round of the draft (Id like me some matzek and wheeler). I want a good bat though like stanton or something.
This will probably never happen but Alderson (+ fringe prospects?) for Miguel Cabrera mid-season if the Tigers collapse?
It'll be interesting to see how much the Tigers are willing to bend if a team offers complete salary relief. Cabrera is owed well north of $100 M. Would they accept a relatively paltry prospect bundle to clear their books?
The big problem is Cabrera is the length of his contract. He's only 26 and already limited to 1B in the field. By the end of it (2015!), he might be an exclusive DH. I'd be very very leery of him if I were an NL team.
(See his contract details here.
Were as I could see a team like the Red Sox being intrested.
Speaking of prospects, did you notice that the Jesus had a five-hit game last night? He's batting .347 and slugging .573 with 15 XBH in 124 AB, and that after a slow start.
And he's committed one error in 254 chances at 1B.
Jesus had a five-hit game last night
I hear lots of people believe in Him.