It’s tempting to use one month to put a decisive stamp on the Giants’ forehead: THWACK! great starting pitching. THWACK! historically bad offense. And THWACK! a bullpen that should work properly if used as directed.
Do we even need to wait another month, as Billy Beane suggested? After last night’s game, it’s not hard to imagine a purge coming soon. The team is scoring 3.5 runs a game, almost half a run less than last year. It’s on track to score to score 567 runs, which would be the lowest total since the Cardinals scored 563 in 1995 — the strike-shortened 1995. I could go back further, but why bother?
I usually shy away from small sample size extrapolation, but do you really think this offense is going to improve? More specifically: Is this the end of the line for Travis Ishikawa? Will we see Kevin Frandsen for Manny Burriss? More Schierholtz, less Rowand and Winn?
Perhaps the whiff of a coming storm is my own olfactory illusion. But I don’t think the braintrust is going to be extra patient, not with some options on the farm, a surplus of prospect talent to trade, and the expected bonanza of fire-sale booty as we near the deadline.
Here’s what to watch closely as we roll toward Memorial Day:
* Randy Winn’s slump. It’s gone from a frustrating run to an alarming descent, down to .209 / .286 / .372. Since going 3–for-4 on April 11, Winn has had one multi-hit game. His K/BB ratio is 20/7. I hate to be an alarmist, but it’s slumps like these that start the whispers about 35–year-old players. On the sunny side, let’s keep in mind that last July, in the middle of an extremely solid year, Winn hit far worse: .232 / .281 / .244.
* Eugenio Velez. If Andres Torres returns healthy, there’s no reason to keep Velez. The guy isn’t suited for twice-a-week pinch hitting, no one trusts him to pinch-run and steal a crucial base, and he’s not a viable late-inning defensive upgrade. Let him get regular at-bats in Fresno.
* Right-handed relief. Bobby Howry has struggled lately, though he threw two solid innings last night. Could this be the chance for Merkin Valdez and, if he returns soon, Sergio Romo, to climb the bullpen ladder?
* Jesus Guzman. He just won the PCL player of the week award in Fresno. His bat is heating up. Bookmark this and check back on a daily basis. If the hitting continues and the first-base glove isn’t embarrassing, we could be headed for an ascension. Any scouting reports lately on his D? No matter how much progress he’s made, he won’t replace Travis Ishikawa’s glove. But if Ishikawa continues his befuddlement (+37 OPS), it won’t matter.
* Kevin Pucetas. He’s quietly having a nice year in Fresno. He’s not a big strikeout guy, so he needs to keep the ball in the yard and avoid walks. If he keeps it up, the Giants might feel bolder about trading Jonathan Sanchez for a bat.
