It’s just Manny Being Enhanced. What a huge, huge break for the Giants — unless Juan Pierre, Ramirez’s likely replacement, decides to have the best 50 days of his career.
UPDATE: What does this mean for the Giants? Here’s a back-of-the-napkin calculation. Let's say Pierre replaces Manny straight up, every day, for 50 games.
In 27 games this year, Manny was worth 1.7 wins above replacement level. Double that for his suspension: 3.4 wins.
In his best year ever, Pierre was worth 4.6 wins above replacement. Divide by three for roughly a 50-game stretch, and you have ~1.5 wins in an absolute best-case scenario. (Which ain’t gonna happen.)
So, if Pierre plays out of his head, the Dodgers are still likely to be two wins for the worse during Manny’s suspension. If Juan is just being Juan, the difference could be three or four wins.
Combine that with some regression for the rest of the Dodgers, who've played the first month at an unsustainably hot pace, and a slight improvement in the Giants offense, and one could make the case that when Manny returns the Giants could be within three or four games of LA. That’s not a bad place to be in early July.
