Giants 3, Rangers 2: Happy Father's Day for thirty more seconds. It was the best of homestands, it was the worst of homestands. Then it was the best of homestands, leading most observers to shrug and say, Welcome to the Giants. Except when faced with the ridiculously hottest of hot teams, they stay close, they pitch well, they hope a few batters get hot and the rest of the team at least plays fundamentally sound. It leaves us clamoring for more, for a new player or two whose bat will improve the team by a win, maybe two, maybe enough to eke out a
wild card berth in the playoffs. Wouldn't that be something?
For those who say this is not a team built to go deep in the playoffs, and there it's not worth making trades to get to the playoffs, step back a minute and think about that. This team could make the playoffs. Wouldn't that be something? Not if they mortgage the future for a short-term Madness-of-King-George type of romp through the hedgerows, but I think we've heard enough recently from the powers that be to trust them that they won't toss the rebuild out the window. (Cross your fingers just in case.)
Even the most calloused cynics, with whom I agree less frequently these days, will admit that a trade of non-blue-chip talent for a decent hitter, if possible, would be welcome. What still divides us -- and by us I mean the two sides of my feverish Libra brain -- is whether a trade of the veteran starters by the trade deadline is worth it. I'm talking mostly about Randy Winn and Bengie Molina. Get something useful for them before they walk as free agents? (There's a good argument whether to keep them and collect draft picks when they sign elsewhere, but that scenario opens the possibility of them accepting arbitration, which would guarantee them a one-year deal with the Giants and probably a raise, to boot.)
If the Giants collapse in the next four weeks, then yes, by all means. But it's not as simple as it looks. Trading Molina by July 31 raises more complications: Does Sandoval become the full-time catcher? He would have to take more days off, and the last thing the Giants need is a lineup without his bat. And what about his ouchy elbow? What if he's forced to play first base again for a stretch?
Unless Winn and Molina get hot and stay hot through July, I can't imagine a team trading bright prospects for either one. OK, perhaps a contending team that suddenly loses a starting catcher would hand over a decent haul for Bengie. But Winn with his negligible power and middling on base skills isn't going to be top-five on any GM's must-have outfield list unless they want Winn's glove in center and the O is all gravy. And that leads to this question: If the Giants are still wild-card contenders a month from now, and the deals for Winn and Molina on the table are for marginal prospects, would you pull the trigger?
What of the other two veteran starters? First, forget about anyone taking Edgar Renteria. We don't need to get into the details. Second, even with his determined climb back to relevance Aaron Rowand is still likely untradeable thanks to his contract. From the Giants' perspective, he's probably untradeable because of his hot bat. To which I reply: On June 12, 2008, Aaron Rowand's triple slash line was
.320 / .385 / .507. After today's game, he's at
.303 / .364 / .496. That's darn good, and I'll be singing frabjous day if that's his line at the end of the year.
But please heed: He had an OPS more than 30 points higher at roughly the same time last year, and it went downhill from there faster than Picabo Street wearing aerodynamic underwear. Most people feel his overall 2008 was a huge disappointment. And by "most," I mean "all." I'm not saying 2009 will follow the same flight path, I'm just trying to put the giddiness in context.
Now, as for Pablo Sandoval: Context? We don't need no stinkin' context. We are drinking mezcal and laughing until we cough up a lung and pass out with our boots in the campfire. Ha! That's what giddy fanboy worship does to a rational child-rearing man.
But that seems to be the theme of the season. Giants: split personality of happy pitching face / sad batting face. Fans: Go for it / Stand pat / Trade the vets. Randy Winn: Left side, Tony Gwynn-ish / Right side, Brian Bocockesque.
Let's move on to the players of the week.
Sandoval does it again with the bat, 10 for 22 with two doubles, two stunning home runs, and four walks, all while returning to third base. No one comes close to his excellent week except Rowand. Hat tip to
Matt Downs, who had four hits and four walks in his debut. I especially liked his opposite field double Friday night. Pitcher of the week was
Matt Cain, who beat
Barry Zito by a nose by throwing one more inning, giving up one fewer run, and one fewer walk.
Brian Wilson was also in the mix for his four perfect innings this week, two to save wins and two to preserve Saturday's tie.
I say hold onto Molina and trade Winn. I am a dedicated rebuilder, but love the prospect of winning the wildcard. Nate is at worst, Winn's equal (now at least), and hopefully part of our future. The way Winn has played, there are no prospects that would exchange hands but is salary relief possible, and maybe a guy who could provide a spark Rajai Davis style before getting DFA'd?
Let's win the wildcard!
Agreed. The only "problem" with Molina is Bochy's insistence on batting him fourth, where it takes 3 hits to score him. Posey is 2 years away at best, and it makes no sense to move Panda behind the dish full time where the rigors of catching can only reduce his effectiveness as a hitter. Molina to Posey can be a seamless transition, with Panda coming to roost at one of the corner infield positions.
BTW, above comment notwithstanding, I continue to believe that Bochy is doing a nice job with this club, especially when it comes to juggling hot/cold bats and arms.
Randy Winn: Yes; Bengie Molina: No.
Winn, on many counts: he should get us a good enough prospect, he has an able replacement that is about his equal in Schierholtz, plus we have Bowker waiting in the minors, and potentially could play Frandsen in LF if need be.
Plus, I'm leaning more towards he won't get us a draft pick in the offseason, no one is giving up their first round pick for Winn, and he definitely would accept arbitration, I think his agent should be able to see the writing on the wall regarding his age and career.
Molina should get us a good prospect, but while Sandoval would be an able replacement, as you noted, that would take his bat out of the lineup more often for rest. Plus, more importantly, what if his elbow goes out again? Then we would be out both Sandoval's AND Molina's bat. That would be a huge risk to this promising season.
In addition, while we have an able replacement in Sandoval, we don't have one for Sandoval at 3B who can replace Molina. Frandsen might be able to, in terms of OPS, but that's the best we can do. Uribe cannot, I don't think, based on what he has done for us so far, though he might eventually replace the HR power (but very unpowerful this season so far in extended ABs). Rohlinger, isn't doing that well in AAA that I think he could replace Molina's bat at 3B.
Plus, Molina should get us a first round pick and is still good enough that another team would give up such a pick, particularly a contending team. And, even if he accepts arbitration, I don't think it would be the worse thing in the world if Posey played in the minors to start in 2010, with the starting position clearly his for 2011. That would extend when we control him another year in the future. Plus, Molina would have to understand that, respect or no, if we need to trade him mid-2010 to bring up Posey, that's a risk he'll have to take if he accepts arbitration.
Yeah, Rowand is suspect because of last year's and previous year's disappearing acts later in the season. I think this is his level of performance when he's 100% healthy, but it just takes another injury to set him back for the season. Still, looking good for now.
And Sandoval just gets better and better. Ain't life sweet!
Let's see if we can sweep the A's again. I was hoping they might skip Sanchez one start now, as that would give us Lincecum, Johnson, and Cain against the A's and give us our best chance to sweep them again.
But Sanchez has been bombarded with Randy Johnson advice, which is good in the long-run, but it's taking him time to assimilate all his lessons, and each game it's like he's working on one lesson and doing OK, while doing poorly at all the other things. It's like he's learning to pitch all over again. Hopefully the lessons will either stick or end for now until Sanchez is ready to take more.
Winn has little if any trade value and us trying to spin his good defense and past performance doesn't change that.
Giants Brass needs to decided quickly. If we're rebuilding, Molina WILL get us something of value. If we're not, there's an abundance of good hitting first basemen who can be had: Cantu, N. Johnson, Adam LaRoche, etc.
Or we can swap disappointment for disappointment and have both teams hope for upside. I.e., Sanchez for Chris Davis. Even with his 100 SO and so-so defense he's a much, much better power hitting prospect than Ishikawa and his measely 3 HR and 5 doubles.
Another idea: Sanchez for the CHiSox' Josh Fields. With Gordon Beckham, Fields becomes redunant.
Prof: Have you checked out the Cubs RF latley? I am not saying we would much of anything in return but a cheep Winn might intrest them if things keep on, keeping on. Same might be said for the Brave OF collection.
There is no way that the Giants get anything of use for Randy Winn, salary relief or otherwise. He's ours for the rest of the year. Just because he's on the roster, doesn't mean he should be playing regularly, though. Boulderhead should be giving Schierholtz extended playing time, since it's not much difference between him and Winn.
Can someone explain to me why Rich Aurilia is still on the roster? It makes no sense. He's so done, it's not even funny.
Maybe Bochy has a sick sense of humor? I don't know.
Schierholtz should be playing more being that Winn is seriously declining as an offensive player.
We should keep in mind Winn is a notoriously second-half offensive player. This might be a blessing in disguise if we're in it still. Either way, I think our analysis of arbitration/compensation picks in the offseason ought to reflect that front-office opinions have changed, and that type As will result in picks for us less probably. (If we go for a Type A, our 1st-rounder in '10 looks like it won't be protected, either.)
As an aside, I haven't observed Nate's D to have gotten up to Randy's level yet. I'm fine with our outfield offense/defense as a whole, with a dash o bowkermania and less of this first-half FLew.
-Get a decent 2B in there
-Pray for continued Uribe resurgence
-I want a Guzman/Ishikawa platoon to work out to ~.850 OPS by August 1.
"For those who say this is not a team built to go deep in the playoffs, and there(fore) it's not worth making trades to get to the playoffs, step back a minute and think about that."
In 2000, the NY Mets went 8-2 down the stretch and then blew through the best-ML-record Giants like a hot bullet through a butter sculpture of Brian Sabean. They then beat the Cardinals 4-1 and returned to normalcy, losing to the evil empire. Three hot weeks from a wild card spot. The playoffs are a crapshoot. The Giants are not built to go deep in the playoffs, yet that doesn't in any way predict their chances of doing so. Having said that, I think that any reasonable 1 for 1 trade is not going to be of much help to the Giants because we don't have 1 that is of much value to someone else. We have to put together a package to attract someone of value and if Bengie, Randy or both of them are in it, fine.
If I'm a GM of another team, and I look at San Francisco, I see Lincecum, Cain and Sandoval. I think: "I want one of those guys." Perhaps I salivate over Buster or MadBum or another hot prospect. The rest? Forget it.
We don't have anything else to trade that has any value to another team. We'd have to give up one of our three best players or one of our potential future stars. We can't afford to do that. I'm happy the Giants are playing well and I hope it lasts. But unless we can get some hitting help on the cheap, we are stuck with this offense.
As long as neither Winn nor Molina is a Giant in 2010 I'm happy, regardless of how it happens.
Winn for marginal return? Yes, I do that. Mainly to get the play time for clearing out and evaluating the other Outfielders not named Rowand (Like Zito he is going no were).
I don’t see them moving Molina for love, money or talent. It has been a long time since the Giants have been remotely in a post All Star break pennant chase and moving Molina would be viewed has giving up even the glimmer of hope for a pennant race.
I mostly agree with whats being said. Trade Winn, keep Bengie. We should be actively shopping Winn around for whatever we can get, most probably a nice prospect or two if he is traded. I don't think we need to swap Sanchez for a big bat since Ishikawa is showing signs of adjusting to the major league level and starting to hit for power. As for Bengie we should hang onto him as moving Pablo behind the plate seems counterproductive(if we are moving Pablo behind the plate now why didn't they trade Molina in the offseason?). Bochy should recognise though that Bengie needs to be dropped to 6th or so in the lineup as his inability to run is killing us. Bump Pablo and Ishikawa up the order and hope that Travis' home/road splits start to even out towards the home side.
I don't think that the Giants will move either Winn or Molina. However, I think that they both should be traded for the following reasons. (1) I still doubt that either one will decline arbitration if offered although I hope that I am wrong. In a different economy maybe I would think otherwise, but I don't see them declining in a FA economy where Orlando Hudson signed the kind of contract he signed with the Dodgers. (2) Bochy refuses to put Molina anywhere other than the 4-hole and unless this changes Molina is more of an offensive hinderance than a help. If Molina was to be used in the 8-hole I would favor his retention until the end of the season, but I would rather have no Molina than Molina in the 4-hole. It is sort of sad that the main reason a player should be traded or DFA'd is due to mismanagement, but that is where I am at with Bochy regarding Molina and Aurilia. (3) Starting next season at the latest I think Sandoval should be the starting catcher until Posey is actually good enough defensively to displace him from this position [if ever], and only subsequently should either Posey or Sandoval be transitioned to elsewhere on the infield. (4) Winn will not be on the team next year and the Giants have two players that can probably equal his performance right now in Schierholtz and Bowker and so if the Giants can actually get a prospect for Winn that would be great. Plus, does anyone think Bochy will actually sit Winn in order to give Schierholtz adequate evaluation time if Winn is still on the squad? The Giants need to play to win now with as much "bent" toward the future as possible and trading Winn seems to meet that objective. IMO trading Molina also achieves this objective given Bochy's mismanagement of the line-up.