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When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby | |
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When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby | |
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Giants 40-Man Roster
(w/2010 Salary, if known) PITCHERS
Affeldt (4.5 M)Bumgarner Cain (4.5 M) Hinshaw Joaquin S. Johnson Lincecum (9 M) J. Martinez Medders (.85 M) Pucetas Romo Runzler J. Sanchez (2.1 M) H. Sosa B. Wilson (4.4 M) Zito (18.5 M) CATCHERS
Molina (4.5 M)
PoseyWhiteside INFIELDERS
BurrissDeRosa (6 M) Downs Frandsen Gillaspie Huff (3 M) Ishikawa Pill Renteria (10 M) Rohlinger F. Sanchez (6 M) Sandoval Uribe (3.25 M) Velez OUTFIELDERS
BowkerFord Lewis Peguero Rowand (13.6 M) Schierholtz Torres OTHER
Bonds ($5 M deferred from '05 + interest)Gigantes
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Obviously Bochy is not going to move Rowand out of the leadoff spot while he is on a good run, so I would agree with batting Lewis 2nd. Also another tweak to the lineup, flop Manny and the pitcher La Russa style.
Was good to see Bengie crank out a good RBI hit, lets hope it provides a boost in confidence and is the start of an improvement.
Bochy absolutely should move Rowand out of the leadoff spot and put Lewis in the leadoff spot. Rowand should have never been put in the lead-off spot to begin with. Bochy's "go with what is working" style of managerial decision making is foolhardy. Baseball is a game of probability and random fluctuation in which bad decisions work 1/4 of the time and good decisions work 1/3 of the time. "Going with what works" too often seizes on the successful bad decision (which is going to happen 1/4 of the time) and ignores the greater possible good which would come from the good decision. Rowand has been hitting great in the leadoff spot. Fantastic! But if his upsurge in hitting is not due to his move to the leadoff spot (and it probably isn't), then the Giants are missing out on having their best slugger (statistically: highest OBP and SLG) in the slot in the line-up which would take advantage of his slugging. And the Giants desperately need slugging. Plus Rowand's high OBP is not nearly as useful as Lewis' high OBP given the speed differential making the latter a better leadoff man.
Leadoff takes advantage of Lewis' greatest strength (OBP) and masks his greatest weakness (high K rate). I do not think he should be platooned and have hope that his slugging will return to last years levels. I am almost ready to give up on Renteria in the 2-hole for my ideal line-up and ready for my realistic line-up.
Ideally I think Molina should be in the 8-hole with the line-up looking like this (however, it would not take much to persuade me to move Renteria down to the 7-hole and drop everyone else one slot):
1. Lewis
2. Renteria
3. Winn
4. Sandoval
5. Rowand
6. Uribe (Ishikawa when Sandoval's mended)
7. Burriss
8. Molina
Here is a more realistic line-up given Bochy will not move Molina to the 8-hole:
1. Lewis
2. Winn
3. Sandoval
4. Rowand
5. Molina
6. Uribe (Ishikawa)
7. Renteria
8. Burriss
Sandoval and Rowand could easily be reversed here and there are merits to either choice. While I like this second line-up better than Bochy's current line-up, I like it a lot less than the first line-up I propose. Molina is the ideal 8-hole hitter in my opinion.
I still think that the Giants should bring up Frandsen and demote Burriss which would provide a little more pop in the line-up. Burriss isn't exactly tearing the cover off the ball and has no slugging ability even when he is hitting for a bit of average.
I'm glad someone is commenting on this. Batting Rowand first is insane (at least once his hitting streak stops). Lewis is a pretty good leadoff hitter and so is Winn but they've been batting third and sixth.
My hypothesis is that Bochy and Sabes don't really understand the philosophy behind small ball--which is the only kind of ball this team can play. Offensively, however, we're still playing much the same playbook as when we had Bonds and Kent.
One example: We have two legit leadoff men and neither are in the leadoff spot, and our best base stealer (Burris) has been hatting eighth in the order, the one position where you're expected to hold and let the pitcher bunt you over.
I really just don't get it--or I fear that Bochy doesn't get it, and what he doesn't get is that base stealing is the one weapon the Giants actually have to use. He also doesn't get that when you have the kind of pitching staff we do, one or two stolen bases can make all of the difference.
Fred is a unique ballplayer. He doesn't comfortably fit a "type." The Giants should appreciate his strengths and do their best to maximize his skills. I think he could use some swing-doctoring (hello, Carney) to improve his contact rate, but other than that he's a patient and productive hitter. I'm not a big fan of the SB but I like fast runners, and Lewis has nice wheels. He's a better fielder every week. His lack of experience shows sometimes, but he's not a liability. I say keep him in the first few spots and let him be who he is.
What pisses me off quite a bit is Bochy rationalizing for poorly performing veterans, and demeaning struggling youngsters. How many times have we heard Big Head hoovering Rowand, Zito, Aurelia, Winn for the smallest speck of a bright spot? Or heard him laying public votes of no-confidence onto Lewis, Ishikawa, Sanchez, etc? It's not like we're seeing pure goodness from the vets, and pure fail from the youngsters. The fail is actually spread quite evenly.
Re-insert Fred's bunions.
He played better in pain.
The stats tell me that FLew is a productive player, but my eyes tell me that Freddie is not good at moving runners along and takes horrible angles to balls in the OF. They have to bat him #2 or #7, because he strikes out and grounds out too much to ever be a big RBI guy. He sure can hit a hanging curve a long way, though.
I respectfully disagree with the commenters who are down on Boche for keeping Rowand in the leadoff spot. When hitters find a comfort zone, they are VERY reluctant to change. Statistical fluke or otherwise, Rowand is enjoying his most productive stretch EVER for the orange & black. Moving him would be a needless, stupid distraction.
The squad is playing good ball, with no sign yet of the June Swoon. Don't worry, be happy!
Fred Lewis is good -- the Giants should relax.
Anyone else worried about lincecum's velocity? Last year he was throwing 95 consistently. This year it seems to be 92. Don't get me wrong, he is still great, but he is not as dominant. I would be curious to know how many of his strikeouts have been on fastballs as opposed to last year. Hitters are making contact with his fastball. His strikeout pitches have been his curveball and changeup. I am worried, but I probably shouldn't be. I think I am just paranoid from memories of jason schmidt's decline.
According to the announcers, this is part of the evolution of Lincecum this year, focusing on getting hitters out earlier in the count by pulling back on his pitches, so that he can last longer into games, but rearing back and striking out a guy when necessary.
That "Bondsian" OPS for Lewis when he swings at the first pitch is not very meaningful. That "first pitch" stat measures a resolution of the AB -- reach base or make an out. It doesn't record anything when the batter swings and misses (or hits a foul), which as we know is something Fred Lewis is quite adept at. Then he's at 0-1, which statistically is also a good count for Fred -- if he makes contact (when he gets to 2 strikes, forget it).
Lewis has shown a high BABIP figure throughout his young career-- which has led some of us to optimistically wonder how good he could be if his strikeouts went down. But maybe the strikeouts are part of the deal, and we have to accept that he's a good hitter when he makes contact (esp. early in the count) and he draws walks. Is that enough?
See how easy it is to flush out people who have a problem with Sabean and Bochy but won't admit it?
According to a recent Baggarly sidenote, in the newspaper, Lewis begged off from lead-off duty, saying that he's not "comfortable" doing that anymore.
It was in the Sunday newspaper: http://www.mercurynews.com/giants/ci_12537893?source=rss
I'll paste the pertinent part:
Aaron Rowand extended his hitting streak to 16 games when he singled in the sixth inning. It's the longest active streak in the major leagues and matched his career high, which he set April 11-28, 2007, with the Philadelphia Phillies.
Rowand's streak coincided with his move to the leadoff spot. But before you anoint Bochy a genius, be aware that the idea wasn't his. Bochy said G.M. Brian Sabean first floated the suggestion.
Bochy needed a fresh leadoff option because Emmanuel Burriss didn't produce in the top spot and Fred Lewis "told us he just wasn't comfortable there."
Sounds like the consensus here is that he WILL bat there, tough it out.
If you didn't guess, that last sentence was from me.
Fred said no to leading off? If that's true (ie, if Bochy wasn't stretching the truth or misquoting Fred or out and out lying), that's not a smart thing for Fred to say. The correct answer is, Yes, Boch, I'll play anywhere you want me to play.
Well, if he's lying, he's going to lose the respect of the clubhouse and the team should belly flop the rest of the season. I don't see how any leader can keep the team going while lying about a player in public.
Yeah, not a really smart thing to say, in terms of playing more games, but it's an honest statement, and better to know that now than keep on trying with him leading off. Shinjo agreed to leadoff too and sucked there, he was much better hitting 6-7. And looking at his stats, he's much less comfortable hitting 2nd, and is much more comfortable hitting in the middle of the lineup, than leadoff, thus far (small samples issues aside).
And he has struggled against LHP, so give him the occasional rest against tough LHP.
And, not sure what your point about Lewis's UZR, Torres is acknowledged to be a superior fielder, I think the point is that the defense is greatly improved with Torres in there over Lewis. That could be important if the starting pitcher tends to give up flyballs out to LF against a certain team, say.
I would also add that I would just bat Lewis 3rd and leave him there. That's where he was doing well previously, and according to the lineup calculator, his lack of power (thus far) won't hurt us there, but with his speed, he can get into scoring position when he does get on, for the 4/5 guys.
I think the main reason he's sitting a bit right now is to give Torres some ABs, because the way Rowand is playing right now, it would be a shame to sit him down, while Lewis has been struggling for three weeks now, particularly the past two weeks.
It also doesn't help that he's not hitting LHP at all this year, so far. He's nowhere close to where he was hitting last season, though it should be noted that small sampling problems affect most hitter's seasonal stats, it seems to me, and a 2-3 year summary is a better indicator of how well he hits against LHP. That gives a perfect excuse to use Torres, though, because Torres has been very good this year against LHP, in very limited AB.
And when/if Winn sits, it should be Schierholtz getting those ABs, not Torres. I hope Schierholtz gets to DH in Oakland, but I bet he probably gets one game, Ishikawa another game (with Sandoval DH; Ishikawa 1B), and Aurilia one game.
Ideally, it should be concentrated on one hitter, and I would give Schierholtz that chance, though, thinking further, if we DH Sandoval all three games, then Ishikawa would get three starts, which would be good too, since he was hot until Sandoval's elbow problems.
And anybody touting Uribe over Renteria is being ignorant of how much better a hitter Renteria has been over his career than Uribe. Uribe's BABIP has been skyhigh, which is the main reason for his goodness right now, as he's not walking nor hitting any homers.
I would ride his hot streak by sitting Renteria to heal his hammy, which can often linger (see Bonds, Alou, Durham), then once Renteria is healed, put him back in, and save your "winnings" on Uribe. In this case, Aurilia starts at 3B too, or hopefully Sandoval heals enough to take 3B again.
Just like I would ride Rowand leading off too. It don't matter when someone is hitting as hot as he has been, if he don't have the traditional leadoff speed. The Giants are 10-7 since he started leading off. And he was hot before that, he has hits in 24 out of his last 26 starts, or 7 out of 9 before this streak (he was hitting .333/.421/.515/.936 in that short streak but mostly hitting 6/7, so the team didn't do that well in that stretch).
I don't see anyone can see how Molina has hit the past 2 seasons and think he's a 8th place hitter. Ideally, he's a 6-7 hitter, probably more 6th.
Well, I have watched almost every game the last two years, and I would say Molina belongs in the 8-hole. I think I have six excellent reasons for saying this, but since you have probably seen them before (and can find them easily enough if you haven't) I won't trot them out again.
That is indeed interesting. I hadn't read that comment by Lewis. Thanks for bringing it to our collective attention. I agree with lefty that it is not really a smart thing for a young player to say. If the Giants need him at lead-off he should learn to be comfortable there, at the very least he should not be presumptuous regarding his ability to choose his spot in the line-up. Perhaps the write-up makes Lewis sound more inflexible than the actual situation.
Lewis doesn't have the tools to be a regular corner outfielder. He will be a great 4th outfielder. Unless he learns to hit 20 homers or play center, that's his future.
The idea of moving Rowand out of the leadoff slot is insane. They have discovered gold there. The underachieving hitter has become a catalystic (is that a word?) slugger. He would be my leadoff hitter for life + 20. I'd prop up his corpse there after he died.
The Giants are looking for a hard hitting corner outfielder/firstbaseman? I was just looking at the Fresno stats. There's a 25 year old down there who is hitting the MLB equivalency of 303/393/472. That's an OPS of .865. I think his name is Beeker or Booker or Bowker. Something like that. Out of sight, out of mind.
While I'm on a roll let me tell you how the Giants can win it all next year.
First of all they let Molina and Wynn walk. Sandaval can do the catching.
They convert Posey to third base and bring him up to play there. Sandaval will work out better at catcher and Posey will do better at third.
So here's how the positions will be:
C Sandaval
1B Guzman
2B Buriss
ss Renteria (He's undr contract)
3B Posey
RF Bowker
CF Rowand
LF Play the Wynn-Molina money out there.
With the hot pitching, that's a contending team.