When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

06.19.2009
Bench Winn Now

Randy Winn is often cited as a valuable, underrated player. For one, he’s the best defensive right fielder that East Coasters have never heard of, and he puts up unspectacular but solid and consistent numbers from either side of the plate.

But the rationale for playing Winn is diminishing by the game. For one, he’s been a fright from the right side. In 56 PA against left-handed pitching, here’s his line:

.109 / .123 / .145

Small sample size and all that, tut tut, but at this point in the year, in this lineup that needs every boost it can get, there’s no reason to start Winn against lefties.

His defense, you say? His glove is so good in right, it makes up for the deficiencies? If so, why has Bruce Bochy shifted Winn to left field to let Nate Schierholtz play right? We don’t know yet if Nate will prove as adept at tracking down balls in the treacherous winds and odd angles of our hometown right field, but, ahem, have you seen the kid’s arm?

So if Winn’s defense isn’t crucial, and his bat from the right side isn’t helping, at least he should play LF and hit third against right-handers, yes?

Indeed, he is hitting well against righties:

.322 / .382 / .475

That’s production. That’s better than Matt Holliday’s totals in Oakland this year. But here’s another glaring split:

Home .227 / .297 / .336
Away .313 / .353 / .453

Is this because the Giants have faced an unusual amount of lefties at home this year? Nope. With roughly the same number of home and away games, the Giants have faced 11 lefty starters on the road and 7 at home. Winn is simply hitting better on the road.

A quick look at his hitting chart tells us most of his fly-ball outs at home are to medium left and center. In other words, he’s not hit into a ton of rotten luck with 410–foot outs to Death Valley. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is lower at home, but it’s hard to tell if it’s a function of luck — ie, hard hit balls right at people — or a lot of weak swings producing lazy flies to left and grounders.

It’s possible there’s a reason for all this we could unlock with more perusal of the stats. Perhaps his hot and cold streaks have simply coincided with homestands and road trips. Perhaps it’s all ridiculous small sample sizes. But for a team that needs every hit, every walk, and every run it can muster, it wouldn’t hurt to bench Randy Winn right now except for road games against left right-handed starters.



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I think you mean "right handed starters" in the last sentence there.

I agree that it's time to sit Randy regularly against lefties, though it's unfortunate that the Giants other candidates for future corner spots are all lefties.

Does Schierholtz have a significant platoon split in his minor numbers?

>>I think you mean "right handed starters" in the last sentence there.

Thanks. Fixed.

I think that your statement "Perhaps it’s all ridiculous small sample sizes" is where this discussion should begin and end. Winn's performance has been super consistent overall for a long time and nothing points to a rapid decline. Sometimes he is hot, sometimes not, but he is solid overall. I think the rationale for playing Winn less has nothing to do with his performance and everything to do with him not being on the squad next year and the urgency of evaluating talent in light of this inevitability. The Giants massively botched their opportunity to evaluate Schierholtz last year when the W-L record didn't matter a lick. Now that they are in semi-contention they are in a real bind regarding talent evaluation. Personally I hope we see a whole lot of Ishikawa, Schierholtz, Lewis, Frandsen, and Bowker in second half of the season and a whole lot less of Molina, Winn, and Aurilia. Uribe should not be a starter except if he displaces Renteria at SS. I would seek to trade Molina (Sandoval to become starting C) and Winn at the earliest opportunity and play for the future not the present. Who knows, the kids might outperform the vets regardless and playing for the future may end up equaling success in the present. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if this indeed proved to be the case.

I would feel differently about trading Molina and Winn in favor of receiving the draft picks at the end of the season as they hit free agency if I didn't think they would accept arbitration as free agents, but in this economy I think that both will accept arbitration if it is offered even if this means that they will be sitting on the bench the next season.

Molina is looking for multiple years and his agent should realize that if he took the easy route out and took arbitration, he could decline in 2010, and miss out on future paydays.

Winn, however, I agree, we won't get picks for him, though the way he is going now, I doubt he'll be an A, probably just a B, and thus it won't cost the other team a pick and we would get an extra one.

I would feel differently about trading Molina and Winn in favor of receiving the draft picks at the end of the season as they hit free agency if I didn't think they would accept arbitration as free agents, but in this economy I think that both will accept arbitration if it is offered even if this means that they will be sitting on the bench the next season.

So who would you have sat last season to let Schierholtz play?

Either Winn or Rowand but probably Winn. Both were known commodities and not in need of more ABs in a losing season, but Winn's contract life and better performance would have made a post-season trade of Winn more realistic.

(sorry about the double post -- server error)

If the Giants flat-out tell Winn and Molina there's a good chance they won't be starters in 2010 if they accept arbitration, they probably won't take it.

Think about it: two veterans in their mid-30s who are still viable starters, risking a lot of bench time for a one-year contract. If their open market value is bad after 2009, it will likely be worse after a year of sitting on the bench and hitting the market in 2010 as a 36 or 37 year old. If the Giants can't trade them, offering them arb this year is worth the risk.

ELM,

I hope that you are right. It would be awesome for the Giants to score type-A compensation and I would even be content with type-B, but I think it will be a huge risk for the Giants if they offer. If Molina and Winn are type-A, do you really think there will be anyone interested knowing that they will have to give up a first round and a supplemental? I have doubts.

If memory serves, Winn has always been streaky during his Giants' tenure. That said, he is not a young player who needs ABs to become acclimated to the bigs. Platooning him until he gets it together from the right side (or until Schierholtz plays himself out of the rotation) is a good idea. Randy is a grown man: he understands that if he does not produce he will be on the bench.

I was trying to reply to ELM's comment about Winn and Molina being told they would sit...

I think aGIANTman makes a very good point that Winn has been very consistent during his career.

However, Grant made a much better point in his recent post that Winn's strikeout rate has increased to levels not seen since his first seasons in the majors. It is not horribly bad right now, but the best hitters in the majors can keep their strikeout rate at 15% and under.

Winn, once he established himself, was able to do that and has been able to do it for many years, even in his 2006 season where he wasn't very good overall, after his May injury. Just counting from there, his strikeout rate was still good.

Unfortunately, Winn currently cannot do it this season. His strikeout rate is both not good and regressed to his early career levels. This looks like he has entered into his declining years this season. We should not offer an extension nor hope to get a draft pick when he goes free agent.

The problem is, who to play now? It is not like Winn is doing a whole lot worse than usual, just a month ago he was around his usual hitting area. If Lewis was still hitting, I could say sit Winn more, but Lewis is hitting even worse than, since his hot streak ended in Apri.

Torres is a journeyman who is having a bit of luck now.

Bowker would be a fine choice, but then who would we send down to bring him up? And with Bowker, then that's another lefty.

As I noted somewhere, I think Bochy should just play whoever is hot right now, then rotate in the rest in the remaining starting spots. So right now Schierholtz and Rowand would get the start while the rest fight over LF. And Rowand hasn't hit for much in a few games. I think over a two week period would be good for gauging this.

Are you sure the increase in his K-rate is over a large enough sample to be of genuine concern?

A concern? I would say yes, given is prolonged track record. In and of it’s self I don’t think the new K rate would be enough to bench Winn.

The reason with enough force to reduce Winns play time is 2 fold. They are not going to reduce Rowand’s play time ( now that he is playing better than a corpse would be exactly the wrong time to do that) and the Giants’ really should be playing the other younger Outfielders. (I include Torres in this because it would be nice to see if his offensive game is good enough to be next years back up centerfielder for length of time encase Rowand gets hurt or returns to his last half of ’08 form.) They need to not only know what they have but in the off chance one of the 4 young(er)ones catches another team’s attention enough to be part of a package.

After watching Winn ground into approximately 26 double plays this game (Saturday night) I have concluded that E.L.M. is both a prophet and a genius.

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