Manny Burriss’s latest cold streak has re-heated talk of a switch. Now that the Giants have proved they can compete, not just by climbing to the top of the wild card standings but by playing close games night after night, win or lose, it makes less sense to let Burriss develop at the major league level when Kevin Frandsen can give the Giants similar defense and, unless cruel fate strikes him again, better offense.
How much better? We can guesstimate. As a major leaguer Burriss has been exactly replacement level. His decent showing last year (.357 OBP) has been cancelled out by this year’s faceplant, according to Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which factors both offense and defense.
So all Frandsen has to do is be better than a generic replacement. That shouldn’t be a problem, despite the 2–for-28 in the bigs this year. His major-league WAR over parts of three seasons is 0.2, barely better than Burriss, but his minor-league track record tells us Frandsen should perform better.
Frandsen’s career AAA numbers are .326 / .382 / .572. That translates to .281 / .327 / .396 in the majors, practically the same he produced in 2007, his only extended look in the bigs. I think it’s safe to say that Frandsen playing every day could put up an OPS in the low .700s. Could Burriss (2009 OPS: .560) be that type of hitter? Someday, perhaps. Between now and September 30? I seriously doubt it.
Then again, I’d rather have Dustin Pedroia, but a quick swap of Frandsen for Burriss is a cheap way to squeeze another win, maybe two from the lineup without trading valuable prospects.
Combine that with a more significant upgrade at another position, and it’s possible the Giants can improve themselves by 3 or 4 wins, which could make all the difference down the stretch.
