The Giants are in Miami, the draft is four days away, and the trade talk is starting to heat up. You don’t need a hot stove to talk turkey in Miami in June, you need a cool drink and a lounge chair. Let’s take a look at couple transactions from recent days and what they mean to the Giants.
First, a note that the Mets reportedly claimed Pat Misch off waivers and will assign him to AAA. (Link tip to MLB Trade Rumors.) This no doubt will have Lunatic Fringers frothing about Brian Sabean’s inability to pull off a trade. Someone obviously thought Misch had value, right? My reaction: marginal major leaguers are let go without compensation all the time. Sometimes they move on and have a bit of success, sometimes they don’t. Look at what the Giants have gotten so far out of Justin Miller and Brandon Medders. If you were a fan in Florida or Arizona (those players’ respective previous teams), would you be gnashing your teeth right now?
More tangential to the Giants but potentially more illuminating is the biggest trade of the season so far, which took place Wednesday. Pirates center fielder Nate McLouth goes to the Braves for two young pitchers and a defensive-minded OF prospect. According to Dave Cameron at Fangraphs, the best of the three is High-A lefty pitcher Jeff Locke, who while quite promising is no blue chipper. It’s not enough for McLouth, who broke out last year at age 27 and is having roughly the same success at the plate this year. On defense McClouth isn’t all he’s cracked up to be, if you believe UZR.
Still, if Cameron is assessing the prospects correctly, it’s a weak haul for Pittsburgh. Here’s the bigger question: Is the trade market generally depressed this year, or did the new Pirates brass get rooked? Was McLouth’s defense a factor in driving down his value?
So what does it have to do with the Giants? We know the Giants are looking to trade, so any swap of better-than-average talent — especially a front line hitter for prospects — helps set a marker for upcoming trades.
Let’s look at McLouth with the stat WAR (wins above replacement). He was worth 3.6 WAR last year, by far his best, and on track for the same this year. Good for McLouth, but how good compared to other center fielders? How about this: Aaron Rowand’s recent surge at the plate gives him the same year-to-date WAR of 1.2 as McLouth. Rowand’s career high WAR of 6.2 came in 2007 with the Phillies.
But Rowand isn’t going to be the trade bait, unless the Giants pull a huge surprise. Most people think Jonathan Sanchez will be the first to go. What’s he worth compared to McLouth? First, he’s a year younger. His career high WAR, compiled last year, was 2.8. He’s on track for a measly 1.5 wins this year, but there’s two-thirds of a season remaining.
If Sabean & Co. were WAR-minded, they probably could argue that Sanchez could get things rolling and top 3 WAR this year. Three wins above replacement is quite valuable (in dollar terms, about $15 M, believe it or not). Here are a few pitchers who were worth ~3 WAR last year: Dice-K, Peavy, Verlander, Zambrano, Pelfrey, Garza. (Four starters topped 7 WAR: Sabathia, Halladay, Lincecum and Cliff Lee.)
Watching Sanchez this year, it’s tempting to argue he’ll never quite put it all together, as much as it’s tempting to say he could break out at any moment. There are so many frustrating holes in his game: holding runners on, for example. Keeping mechanics consistent. Developing a third pitch (his change-up/splitter is mediocre at best). Even putting down bunts.
But here’s a kid who, in his first full year as a starter, was as valuable as Jake Peavy last year. Everyone knows he’s got strikeout stuff. Everyone has seen him dominate for stretches. Sure, he might turn all Oliver Perez and never reach his potential, but the upside is huge. In a potential deal negotiation, the Giants should say this kid could give you at least a couple seasons of 4 or 5 wins above replacement (or whatever equivalent metric they want to use). I don’t think the same could apply to Nate McLouth.
