I'm headed out of town for a few days for a much-needed escape, so get ready for a major trade. Brian Sabean has a knack of making moves while I'm not looking. Coincidence? You figure it out.
Though we're not quite at the half-way mark (43%, if you must know), I figure it's a good time to take a Rumsfeldian look at this team. There are known knowns, such as Tim Lincecum and Rich Aurilia on either end of the performance spectrum. We don't need to discuss them right now. There are other known knowns on a more cosmic scale, such as the team's woeful offense, prompting Sabean to
say this week that he knows what the Giants need (duh), but it might take a while to get it. (So maybe there won't be a big trade while I'm gone.)
The situations I'm most interested in discussing are the uncertain ones. Travis Ishikawa, for example. He's a whiz in the field, which cuts him some slack on offense. And with that slack, his numbers have recently begun to climb toward respectability. A couple hot weeks, and he could be solidly respectable. Dig this: Say he goes on a 20 for 50 tear, not bloody likely, but hey, let's amuse ourselves. Let's throw in 4 HRs, 4 2Bs, and 5 walks. He'd come out the other end with this line:
.300 / .358 / .494
The .850-ish OPS would put him spitting distance behind Nick Johnson, Derrek Lee and Lance Berkman.
At his current level (.739 OPS), he's in James Loney and Casey Kotchman territory. Even with recent improvement, I can't get too excited. His four home runs this year have come off the following pitchers and pitches (according to MLB Gameday).
Buddy Carlyle - 82 MPH changeup
Matt Palmer - 87 MPH fastball
Darren O'Day - 85 MPH fastball
Trevor Cahill - 89 MPH fastball
What seems like a nice power burst is Ishikawa hitting low-velocity pitches in location mistakes. He's not turning on 90+ MPH fastballs. This could be significant or not, but he still needs to prove to the league he can hit a good fastball. At least he's hitting crappy pitches over the fence now
and then, where respectable first basemen should be hitting them.
Another question the first three months has brought up: Andres Torres, keeper? Who knew this guy could do so many things well: Steal a bag. Run like hell, as he showed last night going first-to-home on Panda's double. Hit the ball hard. Bunt. Take a walk. Chase down tough fly balls. I likes! Is good! Where does he fit into the Giants' plans beyond this year? Is he a fourth outfielder, at best, or could he make someone like Fred Lewis expendable? Gripe about Sabes & Co. all you want, but their scrap-heap work this winter was superb. Torres, Brandon Medders, Justin Miller, and Juan Uribe have all been valuable contributors.
In three months, Jonathan Sanchez has backslid from
breakout-year candidate to thanks-but-no-thanks. The question whether to let him make his next scheduled start looms large, but the bigger question is whether the Giants should even bother trying to trade him. It would be a ridiculously low sell. Is it better at this point to wait for him to regain confidence and trade value? Part of that equation is whether Sanchez is ultimately better suited for the bullpen. Tempermentally, I think not. The thought of him coming in late with the game close and runners on base....yeesh. But if he never masters the changeup, he's just a two-pitch pitcher, and very few of those become successful starters without at least one of their pitches named "Mr. Snappy."
Next...oh, wait. You want an answer to the Sanchez problem? What do you think this is, Premium Insider Malo? Alright, this time you don't have to pay. The first thing to do is dial back the hand-waving. No more ominous quotes in the press from Darth Sabes or Stern Uncle Boch. Give the kid a short breather, a few extra days between starts, which the upcoming schedule affords. Put him back on the mound, give long man Justin Miller an extra cup of coffee in the third inning, and take it from there. The bullpen is solid enough and rested enough, thanks to Cain, Lincecum and Zito going deep consistently, to absorb a few more early exits from Sanchez. If a nice trade offer comes over the wire, take it seriously.
Torres was a find, he's the best outfielder on the team, glad to see him getting some run instead of Velez.
The "Brian Trust" deserves credit foe Torres, as well as Medders, Miller, Affeldt and Uribe. Also, it's time to congratulate him on developing a position player (Panda).
Give Sanchez a start off, at least, let him clear his semi competitive but insecure mind. I'd even be in favor of sending him down. Remember the Jays sent down Holliday and that worked out okay.
I agree with all of this.
Looking at Sanchez's line, the number that jumps out is 46 walks in 66 2/3 innings, by far the most on the team. [Otherwise his hits/innings pitched and Ks are in line with the rest of the staff.] He needs to attack the strike zone more, plain and simple. The Giants need the Sanchez who pitched in the WBC.
I think it was 2 years ago that Cain went through a similar issue: they sat him down for a start, and in his next start (against the A's on a Sunday in May, as I recall) he was dominant. Hopefully having Sanchez skip a start and work on his mental approach to pitching will bear similar results.
Agreed re Torres, Medders, MIller, Affeldt and Uribe: query whether this makes up for blatantly overpaying for Renteria and Howry. The Zito stain will last forever, like the Pierzynski deal. Still, I like the 2009 club he has assembled.
>blatantly overpaying for Renteria and Howry.
Renteria, yes. Howry, no. He's getting $2.75 M. He had a bad 2008 based on a jump in hits (and notably, HRs) allowed, but his four years previous were excellent. It was a small risk to take, considering he could have reverted, and still could revert, back to his 2004-2007 form. In fact, take away four crummy outings (two each against LA and DC -- kinda weird) and he's had an excellent year. Check out his truly odd game log.
You're right about Howry, that is an odd distribution, but I think we have to evaluate him based on his body of work as a whole. Otherwise, aside from my unfortunate first marriage and that "incident" in Tijuana, I'd be rich!
With Justin Smoak ready to take over 1B for the Rangers and Gordan Beckham pushing Josh Fileds out of 3B in Chicago, couldn't Chris Davis and Fields, who have dimminished trade value, be gotten for Sanchez plus a B prospect? Possible? Improbable?
Gotta love what Torres has brought so far, as Kuiper noted last night he just seems to find a way to help the team win. Watching him score from first on the Panda's double down the line last night was glorious; for a moment there it almost seemed like we had a legitimately well put together offense. I'd like to see more of this 2. Torres 3. Panda 4. Molina 5. Ishikawa business, probably not a viable long term solution but we have little to lose in seeing what prospects can do in key situations.
Which brings me to Ish. Seems to me we have to give him some more consistent time and see what we have on our hands here. He obviously was patient to a fault in his first stint as the everday guy this year but I like what we're seeing when he swings the bat. He strikes me as a refineable commodity. You make a good point about his inability to turn MLB heat around thus far, but still, this is a guy with all of 275 major league at bats under his belt. He is never going to be a true power hitter but he seems to have an idea up there. I'll submit his 4/8 with a homerun (1.60 OPS!) vs. Jake Peavy as counterpoint that he's capable of hitting quality pitching, even if it was a slider he belted out.
Basically I'd like to see Ishikawa get another substantial stretch as an everyday player before we move on. He probably doesn't have it but IMO there is not much to lose as the alternatives on the roster are unlikely to help us beyond this year and only figure to be marginal upgrades from Ish for the rest of the season in any case.
Yeah, I feel like even mentioning Zito or Renteria is like beating an over the hill Rich Aurilia. And Zito in particular was an organizational decision, can't put all the blame on Sabes. But since you mentioned it, Renteria has been about as bad as advertised.
Agreed, I promise to stop harping on those deals as soon as I get over 2002 (I finally made my peace with 1962, so there's hope!). On the whole, this team is MUCH more fun to watch than last year, and Sabes deserves credit for that. Even with their obvious flaws, they play hard and seem to enjoy themselves the way we all would if we could hit major league cheese.
Isikawa reminds me of Doug Mienkienwicz (is that how you spell that?) who has had a long career and played on some pretty good teams. The importance of defense at first is greatly underrated (which is why Guzman is not going to make it). It's hard to say how much Ishikawa's defense has contributed to the Giants success this year, but it could be an integral part. I know they could do worse. I wouldn't trade him straight up for Mike Jacobs. Still, saying that, I hate having a defense first first baseman.
It's TRUE. The Giants have the 4th best winning % in all of baseball. . . Skip Sanchez, take 2 of 3 in Milwaukee, get a bat, and keep it rollin'.
Has anyone else noticed that the Giants have the second best record in the NL? By the way, I have to say I love this blog it's awesome!
Yeah, noticed it this morning. Take it with a grain of salt, but if you said before the season started (or even a month or so ago) that the Giants would have the second best record in the NL approaching the All-Star break, people would've thought you were crazy.
I wouldn't have called you crazy because if a few of the young guys hit, then I thought that was possible.
However, if you told me that Lewis would be hitting so badly he got benched, that Winn is hitting so poorly, that Sanchez would be completely lost, that Johnson's ERA would be so high, that Molina is hitting so poorly, that Renteria and Burriss was so bad offensively, that Ishikawa was struggling, that Uribe got so many ABs and still wasn't hitting for much, that Romo was out much of the season, that Hinshaw was in the minors, that Howry was scuffling, and then you told me that they still accomplished this winning record, then I would have called you crazy.
Sanchez will not develop a changeup or learn to command his breaking pitches at the ML level. And he's not going to be a valuable starter until he learns those things. Heck, he might even learn how to hold a runner while he's down there. He's not doing anything to help his trade value walking 6 or 7 per nine. He needs to go down for a few starts. And his comments, "I was battling," "I think I'm turning the corner," indicate a huge disconnect with reality.
Pucetas may not miss as many bats, but at least he knows how to pitch.
In the past Brian Sabean was pressured into making desperate moves.Case in point was Shea hillenbrand. That was one of the most desperate moves ever.Brian is his own man now and he does not have Peter M.getting in his business.If he makes a deal it will be the willingness of the new owner to make it work with big money. Thats what needs to happen and thats how it will go down.there are some new key people in the orginization that are in scouting and are awsome.That is a huge help as well.Does anyone remember who filed the scouting report against the Giants vs A's in the 89 series? And swept us! ron Schueler thats who and he works for us now. He is GOOD! not just a coincidence.
As dignan pointed out above Ishikawa still hasn't been properly evaluated... and if he had received more consistent ABs the Giants would probably already know whether or not he is a keeper. At this point I think I would give him 85% (or more depending on performance) of the ABs at 1B until the end of the season. There are numerous players that turn out to be solid performers that don't explode on the MLB scene. Tremendous patience is necessary for high ceiling players, a moderate amount for mid-ceiling, et cetera. I see Ishikawa as a mid-range ceiling 1B so I think he deserves a half season worth of consistent ABs to see what he can do. With only about half the ABs at 1B and less than half the season transpired, I think he deserves more time and definitely a more consistent look given the erratic nature of his opportunities. Plus, it is not like the Giants have any other organizational prospects that are anywhere near MLB ready at 1B so he is not chewing up time that another should receive. Of course if the Giants acquire a cornerstone type 1B as a replacement, Ishikawa should become a defensive replacement and occasional pinch hitter or trade bait.
Torres seems to be a keeper as a utility outfielder. I don't think he should be getting the starting nod over Fred Lewis or Schierholtz though. He brings a lot to the table as both a defensive replacement and a rally-starting pinch-hitter or pinch-runner. Versatility as a switch hitter is also a plus. I don't see the Giants re-signing Winn so even if the Giants keep Lewis, Rowand, Schierholtz, and Bowker, then there is still room for Torres next season.
The Giants should use the off-time to their advantage to skip Sanchez' start. I would give him one start after the All-Star break with a very short leash. If it is a bad start, send him to AAA and bring up Pucetas, but don't trade him now for minimal value.
Sanchez: didn't we know before the start of the year that participation on the WBC seems to have a deleterious effect on some pitchers during the subsequent year? I would give Sanchez a breather (and keep him away from Randy Johnson's advice for a while). Then bring him back.
At the start of the year, I called Ishikawa's progress as a key to the season. I still think the same way. If they give up on him, I don't see a real alternative. If he comes into his own, he'll help the team do well. I just don't think that there is any alternative to sticking with him and *hoping* he gets on track.
That's the thing that most people are missing: Ishikawa has been on track since May 10th, only he was so bad early on that nobody has noticed he's been white-hot since then.
So what we need to hope is that he stays on track, which for him seems to be, "don't over think each AB; see ball, hit ball", or as he puts it "I leave it all in the hands of God."
Ishikawa has been hot hitting since May 10th, when Bochy said publicly that he would be sitting more often, starting with that May 10th game. Since May 10th, he has hit .339/.423/.581/1.003 with 4 HR in 62 AB. He hit after, he hit while he was benched so that Sandoval could play 1B, he has hit since he came back to the starting lineup: .235/.278/.824/1.101 with 3 HR in 17 AB.
While Lefty makes a good point about him only hitting slower speed pitches for homeruns, I would ask this: is he getting a lot of high-speed fastballs that he can't handle? I don't know the answer, and I'm not doubting Lefty, but that's a question I had to ask.
Torres, I think, is a 4th OF. That's why he's been up and down all his career. Look at his splits, all his goodness thus far is against LHP, both this season and career. Plus his BABIP against LHP is insane, no way he keeps that up, particularly striking out that often still. And his minor league stats are OK but should be good since he was so much older and more experienced than most. Good point by another that he's a better version of Velez, I heartily agree with that, I don't think Velez can be a starter.
I don't think the Giants will trade Sanchez. They might stash him in the bullpen at some point, but clearly they understand what they got with him and has been willing to stick it out, up to now. There is no reason to give up on him now, he appears to be going through a learning curve with all the stuff Johnson is feeding him. I think a skipped start would help reset his mind, though with the All-Star break coming, that would help too.
As long as the Giants are still competitive with him in the rotation, I think he's going to stay there. If we should fall back in the wild card race, then you might see someone brought up to start.
People still are forgetting what Sabean said early on. The Giants are not trading to get good this season, so don't expect any of our top prospects to go. The most we can expect is that the Giants have some money in their pocket that they are willing to spend on a high salary player that another team is trying to dump to cut costs.
Now trading from our OF/1B "surplus" is a possibility but not likely. Lewis has had big questions marks on his performances his two prior seasons, despite them being relatively good, whether they were flukes or not. I think whatever is obvious to us fans about Lewis's negatives are evident to other teams. It would have to take a believer to trade for Lewis and we would not get much.
Bowker is doing too well in AAA to trade away now, unless someone is willing to trade us someone who is like what Bowker appears he could be (not likely).
Schierholtz has done well at every level he has played at, much like Frandsen, and his MLE's have been good, so unless it is a trade for a someone who is like what Nate appears he could be, that's not going to happen either.
Ishikawa has too many negatives to garner much in trade, unless there is an Ishikawa lover out there who is willing to overpay for him; unlikely.
So the best I can see happening is a package including question marks like Lewis and Ishikawa (and others like Velez) for a big salary vet who is a bit of a question mark himself, basically the other team's Renteria. And if that is the best, then I say pass.
Yes, amazing that the Giants are among the best teams in baseball right now. The broadcast last night noted that the Giants had the second best record in the NL, but I did not realize that they are now 4th in the majors. Quite a change, no?
And it's funny to me how negative a lot of the comments I see about the Giants are. They are probably 5-10 games better than what a lot of people thought they were capable of doing up to this point. Yet instead of appreciating that, people want more, they demand more.
The Giants are trying to set up a team that can be strongly competitive from 2010 on, but so many people want to ditch that and try to win now. Of course, many of these people were the same people who wanted to trade Matt Cain away. And many of them were the same people who thought Zito wouldn't amount to anything. And many of them were the same people who thought Rowand would be useless to us too. And wondered why we got Affeldt, Howry, Medders, Miller.
The Giants have a plan, and frankly, it's been working and working better than anyone expected. Yet many think that the Giants management don't have a clue, when it's been clear for a long while now: the Giants are built on pitching, and everything else will go in around that, so people will just have to be patient with the process of rebuilding.
On Ishikawa's progress as critical to the season, interesting split I saw the other day
Ish in winning games this year
.333/avg .382/obp .507/slg .889/ops
Ish in losses
.180/avg .275/obp .295/slg .570/ops
Also, what is going on with his home/away splits. Small sample size sure, but still, considering Pac-Bell, this is pretty weird.
Home
.358/avg .398/obp .543/slg .941/ops
Away
.180/avg .275/obp .295/slg .570/ops
Er, screwed those home/away stats up.
Home
.358/avg .398/obp .543/slg .941/ops
away
.102/avg .228/obp .184/slg .412/ops
Yes he has odd splits, I think Lefty noted this a while back.
This is partly because he's had only 49 AB on the road and 34 of them were at pitchers parks (LAD, Marlins, A's, Padres, Mariners, Nats). Also, many of them were when he was lost at the plate, before May 10th.
Still, after he got hot, he has been not as good on the road, all the heat has been from hitting at home. His road since May 10th is only .111/.333/.333/.666 with 1 HR in 18 AB. Still, all those ABs were at pitchers park, not one hitters park in the bunch.
And Pac-Bell/AT&T has not been a pitchers for a couple of years now, about when Coors started using the humidor, but there probably have been other factors too.
1) Winn is in decline. Should not be resigned. Replace with Schierholtz.
Schierholtz is a very good defensive player and, as Krukow pointed out in the game couple of nights ago, has demonstrated the ability to get extended on the outside, hard fastball. That's why he consisently hits the ball so hard. He's just go to pull more pitches like he did in Oakland.
If he's a mirage, then we move on to other options.
2) If you go back (2008)to other teams' fan forums and blogs, you see that the more knowledgeable fans have had their rader on Sanchez and Schierholtz. When Sabean was "kicking the tires" on Matsui, one NYY fan wanted Wilson (pre-2008 season), Sanchez, and Schierholtz.
Please someone correct me if I'm wrong, but has there been one rumor---substaniated or not---from ESPN, FoxSports, team blogs, fan forums, etc. where anyone wants Ishikawa? No disrespect intended, but either you are just kidding yourselves or you're super geniuses because you get something the rest of the universe doesn't. At least the universe that watches the games with their eyes not their hearts.
This isn't an insult to TI. Even he's said he's now power hitter, and, folks, that's what we need.
BUT----there is no way on Heaven, Purgatory, or Hell that Rich Aurilia, love him as we may, should be getting starts over Ishikawa. It is utterly ridiculous if not sickening to have a guy who can't even run playing when you have a capable young athlete whose hitting 50 points higher. Ever.
3) Team's doing great. I love winning, but I love the thought of winning in the play-offs, too. We have a super starting rotation---championship caliber.
However, we should only---ONLY--make a trade if the other team is dumping salary. There is no way, NO WAY, a rental player is worth the likes of MadBum or even Alderson.
Otherwise, this fan is willing to eat this year and wait to see if Chris Dominguez has a fast learning curve a la Sandoval.
Thanks--The Professor