Assuming the Giants send down John Bowker today when Ryan Sadowski is recalled, here’s my prediction for the trade deadline, which of course is the best way of looking like Public Pendejo #1. No matter:
Between now and July 31, the Giants make a minor trade or two for a right-handed bench/platoon player, perhaps another bullpen arm or back-of-rotation starter. And that’s it.
Why not a major trade before the deadline? Because the Giants aren’t motivated enough — ie, desperate — to do so. With their honest rebuild and exciting play this year, they’ve earned enough goodwill among fans to withstand the disappointment of standing relatively pat. We all want the Giants to go for it, but enough people — probably plenty in the organization, too — think pushing on without a major trade is in fact the best way to go for it, both short– and long-term.
There’s also the chess game of the deadline. Remember, after July 31 teams can still trade, but all players involved must pass through waivers. Everyone says this year big names could move this way, because potential blocking teams won’t want to claim expensive veterans off waivers and get stuck with their contracts. (See: Myers, Randy.) So in the back of Sabean’s mind, there’s always August.
But that’s just one half of the equation. The other half of a trade — presumably a bunch of pretty good younger players — must also pass waivers if they’re on the 40–man roster. That narrows the trade possibilities for the Giants: they might not be able to squeeze through guys like Frandsen, Lewis, Joe Martinez, and Schierholtz. (If you were a GM and saw Nate Schierholtz on the waiver wire in August, wouldn’t you try to grab him for free?) But the Giants also don’t want to trade their blue-chip guys who aren’t yet on the 40–man (Posey, Bumgarner, Villalona, Alderson).
So that means, come August, the Giants will either have to trade second-tier non-40–man guys (Thomas Neal, Scott Barnes, Kevin Pucetas) or major league veterans whose contracts no one wants. That’s not the recipe for bringing back an impact bat, and Sabean probably knows it.
So to hedge against nothing big happening, the first step is to fluff the team around the edges: a right-handed power-and-platoon bat (Josh Willingham?), perhaps another pitcher or two. If the team thinks Randy Johnson is more injured than they’re letting on, another starter is a distinct possibility. If Sergio Romo’s recent work and Bobby Howry’s continued mediocrity and Merkin Valdez’s immaturity gives the team pause, a right-handed set-up man could be the target.
If I’m right, who’s going to buy me a beer?
