Once upon a time, a 25–year-old Giants outfielder finally got his chance after he spent what seemed like years punishing triple-A pitching.
He was under the radar for much of the year, with a .570 OPS in limited at-bats, but on a summer road trip that included a swing through the Midwest, our friend made a nice splash. He got hits (12 for 25 in six games), he hit for power, he showed off his strong arm and his wheels. This is it, Giants fans said. This is the turning point.
Anyone care to guess this young fellow’s name? Here’s a hint.
If you said Nate Schierholtz, I don’t blame you. On the current road trip, which includes a swing through the Midwest, Nate had a six-game, 14–for-29 streak. He cooled off last night with an oh-fer but still hit a couple balls hard.
Is Schierholtz experiencing a Lindenesque flash-in-the-pan? I’m not saying that. I’m just sayin’.
Here’s today’s Bucket Of Cold Water on Your Campfire #2, courtesy of BP’s Kevin Goldstein:
One pitcher with numbers that are impossible to argue with is Giants righty Tim Alderson. After leading the California League in ERA during his full-season debut last year, the 20-year-old has a 2.36 ERA in his first nine Eastern League starts for Double-A Connecticut. Scouts still find it difficult to warm up to Alderson, however. "It's not an insult at all, he's a for-sure, big-league starting pitcher for me," said one scout who saw him recently, "but it's strictly back of the rotation for me," he added, while explaining that Alderson's backwards style of pitching is not one that is usually conducive to major league success. "That plus breaking ball is his calling card, and he's a guy with plus-plus control and average command, but he can't pitch off his fringy fastball, and you don't really see many changeups out of him."
Does this mean the Giants should sell high on Alderson immediately and trade him for a big bat? If the above scout’s opinion is already widespread among other teams, they might not be able to trade him so easily — at least not for the bat they want. And what about Schierholtz? Is there anything about his game that makes you think he’s not for real? Discuss.
Hey a cheap back to the rotation guy possibly ready by the last half of 2010. (Looks at Zito, Johnson & Sanchez) Oh yes that is going to be real darn useful soon.
As for Nate. 9-24 as a Pinch Hitter with a good glove and better arm. Yes, he has home on an NL 25 man for a while even if he does not stick as a starter.
Remember Sandoval and the skepticism about him? The believers, however, looked at his skills and his mental approach and knew he was the real deal.
Ditto Nate. The boy can hit. And run. And catch. And throw!
Schierholtz is not Linden; in some ways, his success so far is more likely than Linden's to end in flameout. He was considered an overdraft the day he was picked, while Linden had been seen as a top talent who fell in the draft because of perceived makeup issues (note the college transfer). Schierholtz has never shown a batting eye, while Linden controlled the zone.
That said, Schierholtz has performed. He has not punished anyone (neither did Linden, aside from a single season in the Texas League), but he has hit well for his age and level, showing power and contact skills. Like Linden when he came up, the rational assessment reads "4th outfielder". Linden's flameout was an undershoot, but not a huge one. Justin Upton, he wasn't. Neither is Schierholtz. But a barely contending team can play Schierholtz and trade a veteran. Too bad Winn has low market value despite his all-around virtues and a no-trade clause both.
As for Alderson, I am the guy who is infamous for (once and still) preferring Porcello to Alderson and Heyward to Bumgarner. I'd let them both go in trade for someone useful. I wouldn't sell either low for spare parts, though.
>>neither did Linden, aside from a single season in the Texas League
Linden had an absolutely epic year in Fresno in 2005 before he was called up to the bigs. So did Calvin Murray in 1999. Thanks to them, I don't trust monster AAA stats (see: Bowker, John) until they bear out at the major league level.
ELM, it is true, that was an epic performance. At age 25. After he had put up 3-plus meh seasons in the same league. The Texas League 300/400/500, by contrast, was at age 22 in his very first taste of pro ball.
Schierholtz, as noted, is not Justin Upton. However, his only real down year with the bat was at Connecticut at age 22, sort of the opposite of Linden's good bookends sandwiching a bunch of mediocrity. His walk rate is so punk, though, that I can't expect more from him than to play a decent 4th OF for a few years.
Re. Schierholtz's walk rate: We can only hope that he has the kind of plate-discipline improvement that Sandoval has shown this year. Nate doesn't need to be a walk machine, but he needs to stop swinging at terrible pitches. The down-and-in hole in his swing is glaring, and teams are exploiting it to the fullest.
Are you saying you would trade Bumgardner??? If so, lay off the weed...
For a great hitting prospect like Heyward? In a heartbeat.
Small sample size!!! Be patient.Let this thing unfold.
2 soon 2 tell re Nate: but I like that he seems to have learned from what MLB pitchers did to him last year.
Noah Lowry and Kirk Reuter had pretty good success with their "fringy" fastballs, and Johan Santana doesn't exactly blow batters away with his heater, so Alderson may be getting unfairly ripped by scouts who have a Radar Gun Jones. The Giants are likely to need either one or two starters next year, so I don't ship them off unless I can significantly upgrade the 25 man roster.
Dprof - Sandoval was 21 when he made his first big splash. Let's just say Nate isn't 21. Age makes a big difference when we're looking at these trends.
Hey, ride him. But there's a reason the Giants are scouting Dye and others. If they want to make a playoff run, I think it's fair to say that they're not expecting continuous solid production from LF. (Actually, they're likely not expecting solid production from any OF spot but Winn and Rowand aren't exactly attractive trade bait.)
Lefty, the reason we all wanted Schierholtz up earlier last season was to see what we had. I think the Giants management and Bochy could have known by the start of this year that he was for real. I think Schierholtz can be an everyday starter for the rest of this year and next when Winn departs. I am more concerned with the disappearance of Fred Lewis' hitting and ability to field, I dont think I have ever seen such a meltdown with a young Giant player.
Linden could field like hell and he made one of the greatest plays I have ever seen from a left fielder. I think it was 2006 when Bonds was hurt and playing here in DC at old RFK. Memory is fuzzy, but I think Alou hit a home run in the top of the 9th to take the lead and Linden was in left in the bottom of the 9th and there was a shot in the gap and he laid out on a dead run and caught the ball flying parallel in the air. I was dumbfounded.
So props to Linden for that defensive gem...wish Lewis had a clue. It does not look like he could catch a lazy fly ball at this point.
In terms of Alderson, I think he will be a nice compliment at the bottom of the order, but I am of the belief that we still need a middle of the order bat to stay in wild card contention through the end of the year. I would put ALderson in any discussion if we are talking Uggla or another major bat, but would not trade him for a rent-a-player...
I've been dismayed by Alderson's declining K-rate, and he definitely needs to learn a changeup, but how many kids have that pitch and use it a lot at the age of 20? Alderson can locate the fastball better than anyone in the entire organization, and that has value. I think it's easier to teach a kid a changeup than to teach him how to locate a fastball.
Unbelievable control, average stuff and weird delivery? Does that remind you of anyone? Here's a quote from Sports Illustrated, circa 1990.
"Great location and a strange motion," said the Scout. "His stuff, though, is not unbelievable. I still think if you have some good lefthanded hitters...you can beat him."
Scout was talking about Dennis Eckersley.
Linden always looked like an obnoxious ignoramus. Schierholtz doesn't. I have more faith in Shierholtz.
If the Giants have any chance of getting Victor they need to go for it. Anyone other then Posey and Bumgarner should be fair game. A package of Alderson and Villalona plus a few mid level prospects might be enough.
Downside is we lose a potential stud first baseman in Villalona and a solid SP for years to come in Alderson but that is a best case scenario with both of them. Victor is proven and could step in and solidify the cleanup spot taking pressure off of everyone else in this lineup. Risk/reward should incline Sabean to make this move if Cleveland is willing.
There is something special about this team right now but this season is going to end in dissapointment unless we bring in someone of Victors caliber. Our starting pitching is built for domination in the playoffs and with a ligit cleanup hitter this lineup could produce enough runs to win it all.
Prospects are only good for the future and there are no guarentees. We have enough young pitching to be able to afford to make the trade and if Victor is our first baseman over the next 6-10 years then we really don't need Villalona. We have been waiting for an opportunity like this for the last 4 years, now is the time to strike and make a bold move no matter what the cost with the exception of Buster Bumgarner.
sounds good and I like it. The problem is money going forward.Martinez could be a $15-17 million dollar guy per year to keep him.With lincecum becoming a super two guy and having another great year he will cost the Giant 9-11 million. Now add up Zito 18,tim 10, martinez 12, and you start to see the problem 3 players taking 40 mil. Thats assuming 100 mil payroll 40% 3 players. That will be hard to do.
True, Nate's 25.
But I remember when they first brought up Lewis. They really wanted to bring up Schierholtz, but he had injured his should crashing into the outfield wall.
He was 23 then, and they thought he was ready. The Giants have a bad habit of sending their guys to the minors because they have options when they should be challenging the vets for jobs.
He definitely has good baseball instincts. But time will tell.
My money's on Nate succeeding, though.
I wanted Nate out there, too...but his free-swinging and failure to make a P throw him something good are a major liability...Perhaps that's why the power numbers from the minors have not translated to MLB so far. He has tools, though, an if he can get a little more selective (as pablo has) he may still be a big producer.
scouts said sergio romo had fringy stuff that would not get ML hitters out
The difference between Schierholtz and Linden is that Linden never figured out how to avoid the strikeouts, even in the minors, whereas Schierholtz has done that in he minors. In addition, despite that, Schierholtz was always a good enough hitter that he could hit for a high average, whereas even in the minors, Linden struggled to hit for a high average. Furthermore, Linden didn't hit for good power until he was 24. Schierholtz first showed good power when he was 20 in Hagerstown, and he has followed this basic pattern as he has risen: he first figures out how to hit for a good average in the league, then he starts hitting for power.
He is finally starting to do that in the majors. Since Nate started starting regularly on June 11th, he has hit .373/.406/.576/.983 with 3 HR in 59 AB, or 20 AB/HR, which is very good, a 30 HR season if he could continue that for a whole season.
I think one area the Giants have excelled at during Sabean's reign is identifying pitchers who might not look like they could be effective in the majors but ultimately are. From Rueter to Romo, they have shown this ability to pluck out these pitchers. Not that Alderson is one, but at least there is a track history of success with players who don't fit the mold. And, of course, there is the one who really didn't fit the mold but are we glad he picked him: Tim Lincecum.
So if no one wants Alderson for whatever reason, that's fine, they probably will be wanting him later, though like above, I'm worried about Alderson's declining strikeout rate.
Can't use age as a reason to dis Schierholtz vs. Sandoval. If Sandoval was an outfielder, he would not have been brought up last year, he would be playing in AAA right now, waiting his turn behind Schierholtz and Bowker, and Ishikawa at 1B. If Schierholtz was still playing 3B instead of RF, he would have been the starting 3B last season with the Giants, and based on his MLE's from his AAA performances, he should have been good enough to stay the starter and, again, Sandoval would be sitting in AAA, waiting behind Schierholtz and Ishikawa. Sandoval had age and opportunity. Schierholtz never got that opportunity, though he probably should have been in the majors by mid-2007.
OSC:
Your assessment of Schierholtz is on the mark. Furthermore, there is a sharp contrast in the aforementioned players in terms of attitude.
Schierholtz does not have the cocky ego-without-a-portfolio attitude than Linden had. Plus Linden had this mega-loopy left-handed swing. Schierholtz is more controlled through the strike zone. He, like the other young hitters, is learning how tough a major-league breaking ball can be.
Yes, you are on the mark too about the attitude. Linden didn't walk his talk.
I also forgot to mention that another Linden plus early on was that he did very well in the Cape Cod wood bat league in college, and thus was highly regarded because of that.
Does anyone know if a database of batting stats for the Cape Cod league exists anywhere? Ever since Linden, it makes me wonder if the league is overrated in terms of hitters who do well there doing well in majors or even pro ball. And it's not just him, I have seen this thrown out before, and I don't recall names, but had the general feeling that "oh, another Linden" for other prospects, so I've been wanting to check this out.
For Linden, he always had problems with striking out in the minors and thus while I had hopes based on that great season in the minors, I had my strong doubts about him too. That's why I never said that he should get a starting spot given him, I wanted him to work for it as an uber-utility OF, kind of like how Feliz did it. Only he could never hit.
For Schierholtz, while there is the lack of walks, there is a plethora of hitting that he always did, no matter how many times he struck out. And once he figured out the striking out part in 2007, I've been advocating for the Giants to trade Winn to open up RF for him to start. As I noted above, he's regularly spent around 100-200 AB figuring out his new level, hitting for average but not power, then the light clicks on and he starts hitting for HR power. And as my stats showed, he's not only hitting for average now, but hitting for HR power.
And I'm more confident about him than I am about Lewis, so I have no problem with sticking with Schierholtz over Lewis for the rest of this season. You snooze, you lose. Lewis always had a number of question marks, so I put him in the Linden category except that Fred at least succeeded in the majors when given the chance, so I give him props for that.
But as Francoeur has shown, sometimes a player can get lucky his first season and live off that for a couple more seasons, as the league figured him out. Maybe Fred has reached that. There are elements of strong luck that Fred had in both 2007 and 2008 that could suggest that he is not as good as he played.
However, he was outstanding coming out of the chute this year, so I have to think that is still in there somewhere, but got lost in his head while he tried to become the power hitter he thinks he is. I think he takes the 4th OF role and Bochy gives Rowand and Winn more days off, to get Lewis more games to start in (obviously, he's no OF brought in for defense). Schierhotlz can get a rest sometimes too (once he cools off for a while). We will probably need Fred in LF next season, though he's going to have to battle Bowker for that position, and perhaps EME. He's actually hitting well in AA (Dodd killing his stats again...) and improved as the season has gone on.