Last night’s Wilsonpalooza came just hours after I anointed Jeremy Affeldt the Giants’ first-half MVP of the bullpen. Sure enough, Affeldt pitched well and induced yet another double play, while Wilson got all nutty and nearly gave away a three-run lead, thanks in big part to his own monumental bonehead play on a bases-loaded, one-out comebacker that should have ended the game at 5–3.
Bruce Bochy had Sergio Romo warming up quickly behind Wilson, and after the game Boch told the press that the last batter of the game, Bonifacio, was going to be Wilson’s last, no matter what the outcome.
Like I wrote yesterday, a closer’s stumbles are perceived by fans as far more grievous sins than those of a set-up man, often unfairly so. You can just as easily blow a game in the 7th or 8th as in the 9th. Which brings me back to Jeremy Affeldt, whose shiny low ERA and remarkable run of scoreless appearances has everyone, including me, in a tizzy. I chose him as bullpen MVP over Wilson despite some advanced stats that indicate otherwise. Let’s have a look:
Wilson’s frightening work last night brought his FIP closer to Affeldt’s, but he still has the advantage, 2.78 to 3.07. Here’s why: Affeldt is walking nearly a batter per 9 IP more and striking out 1.7 batters per 9 IP less than Wilson. More walks, fewer strikeouts: almost never a good thing.
When batters put the ball in play, they’re hitting .329 against Wilson, only .270 against Affeldt. A pure stathead might argue that Affeldt is riding a massive lucky streak and his ERA should be a point higher or more. With those extra walks, the balls in play are bound to start finding holes instead of infielders who turn them into double plays. His 11 double plays induced leads major league relievers.
But here’s an interesting tidbit: Affeldt makes more batters swing at bad pitches than Wilson. According to Fangraphs, batters swing at 27% of his pitches outside the strike zone, compared to 20% of Wilson’s. But both pitchers have the same overall swing rate — batters swing at about 41%.
Remember, this is relative to Wilson. Other relievers have much higher “O-Swing” rates, as Fangraphs calls it. (Mariano Rivera, 35%, Joe Nathan, 32%.) It’s not an iron-clad indicator of success. Russ Springer of Oakland has the league’s second-highest rate at 38% but gives up a lot of hits and home runs.
One thing’s true, though: Batters aren’t getting Affeldt’s pitches airborne. Of all the bullpen regulars this year, Affeldt leads the team with a whopping 66% groundball rate. In fact, he leads all major-league relievers in GB/FB rate, with nearly 5 grounders to every fly ball.
So you have a guy who strikes out plenty of batters (8.27 per 9 IP), makes batters swing at his pitches, and gets a ton of groundballs. Some of those grounders will inevitably find holes, but batters hit them weakly because they’re not necessarily strikes, Affeldt’s luck might not run out so quickly.
SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Kevin Frandsen back up, Randy Johnson to the DL. Heal fast, Big Unit. And let’s hope Frandsen gets a decent chance to show his worth.
