As big as this week’s Dodgers series was, there’s a bigger one coming up. To cap the road trip that starts today, the Giants play four at Coors Field, known among horror-movie buffs as “Hell at 5,000 Feet.”
Four games against one of the many teams jockeying for wild-card relevance won’t be make or break, but a strong showing in Denver will be a statement. And if they pull a mile-high faceplant at the end of an equally feeble road trip (four against the disintegrating Mets, three in Cincy) could mean sayonara, Fat Ichiro & Co.
Subconciously (or not) we’re all waiting for this magic carpet ride to end. The “Why Not Us?” giddiness of Cinderella fandom hasn’t really struck, probably because pitching-and-defense isn’t macho. If the Giants were horribly flawed but could pop a 10–spot on any given opponent on any given day, we’d be a bit more brazen, ready to poke someone else in the chest and bray, “You never know, pal.”
But the Giants are horribly flawed with the possibility on any given day of a 1–0 win thanks to an Edgar Renteria infield hit. A nice three-of-four thumping of Colorado a week from now would go a long way to giving us a little puffed-up-ness about the chest, a little swagger down the stretch.
Looking beyond the stretch run, we’ve got more data and observations under our belts for longer-term planning. Brian Sabean did a Q&A with Fox’s Ken Rosenthal, and he’s typically oblique about a lot of things:
We've got some kids in the wings who are close to being up here next year. We're going to follow suit with it, knowing that if we can pitch, in relative terms, we're going to have a chance to be in most every game and most every series in most seasons.
We'll continue to build from within with this group of position players. At the same time, we'll also need to go outside. Our fans have been patient. Our ownership has given us the latitude to do it this way. It's kind of been a relief.
Let’s try to fill in some of the blanks. Part one: The pitching staff.
Below I’ve listed in bold the active-roster players under contract or control for 2010. In italics are 40–man players (or other minor leaguers) with a decent shot to compete for a roster spot:
SP
Cain
Lincecum
Zito
J. Sanchez
Martinez
Sadowski
Pucetas
The first three aren’t going anywhere unless a team offers the moon and several planets for Matt Cain. Tim Lincecum enters arbitration, which means he’ll soon be lighting his dad’s cigars with $250 bills. Only the very young and very rich are allowed to use $250 bills, or “Deuce-Fitties” as we called them growing up.
No doubt talk of a Sanchez trade will fire up quickly on the hot stove, but we’ll probably see the same reticence from the Giants. It’ll take more than Jorge Cantu or Edwin Encarnacion to pry him loose. Let’s assume for now Randy Johnson isn’t in the team’s plans next year. For the fifth spot, no doubt Kevin Pucetas will get a long look in the spring, but it’s hard to imagine a rotation that has two from the Pucetas/Martinez/Sadowski group; they’re all sinker ballers who need premium control and excellent off-speed stuff to compete in the bigs.
RP
Wilson
Affeldt
Romo
Valdez
Miller/Medders*
Hinshaw
Matos
Joaquin
Wilson and Affeldt are a strong duo at the top of the pen. Romo and Valdez are still works in progress but valuable. I can imagine one of them becoming part of a trade package. Miller and Medders have an asterisk because I’m not sure they’ll be under team control. If they are, the Giants are well advised to keep both (probably for less than $1 million each). Each has added nearly an extra win to the Giants’ totals, going by BP’s WXRL stat. That’s good for back-of-bullpen types.
If they leave, the Giants will need a long man (Martinez?) and someone who can pitch multiple innings at a time. They’ll also probably need a replacement for Bobby Howry, who’s been decent but not the top-notch set-up guy they hoped for. Or resign him to a cheaper contract. (He’s making Both Joaquin and Matos have live arms but little big-league experience. Stepping into Miller and Medders shoes might be the best way to break the young guys in.
Just for fun, I’m going to figure on two scenarios: 1) The Giants keep Miller or Medders but not both. 2) They trade J. Sanchez and either Romo or Valdez in a quest for a big bat. Here’s my mock 12–man pitching staff on Opening Day 2010:
Lincecum
Cain
FREE AGENT STARTER (How about Justin Duchscherer?)
Zito
Martinez/Pucetas/Sadowski (spring training battle royale)
Wilson
Affeldt
FREE AGENT VETERAN SETUP GUY
Valdez or Romo
Miller or Medders
Joaquin or Matos
one of Martinez/Pucetas/Sadowski (with the third going to AAA)
Mock up your own, or mock mine. Position players coming soon.
