As big as this week’s Dodgers series was, there’s a bigger one coming up. To cap the road trip that starts today, the Giants play four at Coors Field, known among horror-movie buffs as “Hell at 5,000 Feet.”
Four games against one of the many teams jockeying for wild-card relevance won’t be make or break, but a strong showing in Denver will be a statement. And if they pull a mile-high faceplant at the end of an equally feeble road trip (four against the disintegrating Mets, three in Cincy) could mean sayonara, Fat Ichiro & Co.
Subconciously (or not) we’re all waiting for this magic carpet ride to end. The “Why Not Us?” giddiness of Cinderella fandom hasn’t really struck, probably because pitching-and-defense isn’t macho. If the Giants were horribly flawed but could pop a 10–spot on any given opponent on any given day, we’d be a bit more brazen, ready to poke someone else in the chest and bray, “You never know, pal.”
But the Giants are horribly flawed with the possibility on any given day of a 1–0 win thanks to an Edgar Renteria infield hit. A nice three-of-four thumping of Colorado a week from now would go a long way to giving us a little puffed-up-ness about the chest, a little swagger down the stretch.
Looking beyond the stretch run, we’ve got more data and observations under our belts for longer-term planning. Brian Sabean did a Q&A with Fox’s Ken Rosenthal, and he’s typically oblique about a lot of things:
We've got some kids in the wings who are close to being up here next year. We're going to follow suit with it, knowing that if we can pitch, in relative terms, we're going to have a chance to be in most every game and most every series in most seasons.
We'll continue to build from within with this group of position players. At the same time, we'll also need to go outside. Our fans have been patient. Our ownership has given us the latitude to do it this way. It's kind of been a relief.
Let’s try to fill in some of the blanks. Part one: The pitching staff.
Below I’ve listed in bold the active-roster players under contract or control for 2010. In italics are 40–man players (or other minor leaguers) with a decent shot to compete for a roster spot:
SP
Cain
Lincecum
Zito
J. Sanchez
Martinez
Sadowski
Pucetas
The first three aren’t going anywhere unless a team offers the moon and several planets for Matt Cain. Tim Lincecum enters arbitration, which means he’ll soon be lighting his dad’s cigars with $250 bills. Only the very young and very rich are allowed to use $250 bills, or “Deuce-Fitties” as we called them growing up.
No doubt talk of a Sanchez trade will fire up quickly on the hot stove, but we’ll probably see the same reticence from the Giants. It’ll take more than Jorge Cantu or Edwin Encarnacion to pry him loose. Let’s assume for now Randy Johnson isn’t in the team’s plans next year. For the fifth spot, no doubt Kevin Pucetas will get a long look in the spring, but it’s hard to imagine a rotation that has two from the Pucetas/Martinez/Sadowski group; they’re all sinker ballers who need premium control and excellent off-speed stuff to compete in the bigs.
RP
Wilson
Affeldt
Romo
Valdez
Miller/Medders*
Hinshaw
Matos
Joaquin
Wilson and Affeldt are a strong duo at the top of the pen. Romo and Valdez are still works in progress but valuable. I can imagine one of them becoming part of a trade package. Miller and Medders have an asterisk because I’m not sure they’ll be under team control. If they are, the Giants are well advised to keep both (probably for less than $1 million each). Each has added nearly an extra win to the Giants’ totals, going by BP’s WXRL stat. That’s good for back-of-bullpen types.
If they leave, the Giants will need a long man (Martinez?) and someone who can pitch multiple innings at a time. They’ll also probably need a replacement for Bobby Howry, who’s been decent but not the top-notch set-up guy they hoped for. Or resign him to a cheaper contract. (He’s making Both Joaquin and Matos have live arms but little big-league experience. Stepping into Miller and Medders shoes might be the best way to break the young guys in.
Just for fun, I’m going to figure on two scenarios: 1) The Giants keep Miller or Medders but not both. 2) They trade J. Sanchez and either Romo or Valdez in a quest for a big bat. Here’s my mock 12–man pitching staff on Opening Day 2010:
Lincecum
Cain
FREE AGENT STARTER (How about Justin Duchscherer?)
Zito
Martinez/Pucetas/Sadowski (spring training battle royale)
Wilson
Affeldt
FREE AGENT VETERAN SETUP GUY
Valdez or Romo
Miller or Medders
Joaquin or Matos
one of Martinez/Pucetas/Sadowski (with the third going to AAA)
Mock up your own, or mock mine. Position players coming soon.
How about MadBum as the #5 starter? He is pitching well in AA.
To start the year? Long long long shot.
Even if Madbum was ready (which he won't be), the Giants would be well advised to start him in AAA and not bring him up until June in order to avoid Super Two status.
They have clearly been following the Matt Cain advancement regiment: one year A-ball, one year A+/AA, then one year AAA, Sept callup, then Majors the next year.
And that makes a lot of sense to do. We want to both give him more time in minors to get himself set up to reach his full potential, plus we want to give him more time in minors so that he comes in ready to take the place of either Lincecum or Cain, depending on if they decide not to sign an extension with the Giants or not, thus extending the period where we have great pitching in the rotation.
That would start make 2011-2016 the Bumgarner era, at minimum.
While it might be nice to just throw him up here, few pitchers make it in the majors without pitching in AAA first, and to get a good sense of how he might do in the majors, he has to spent a full year there (says research by Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster bunch of analysts).
I would rather we be patient, let him take his time getting up here, get his repertoire all nice and performing nicely, then bring him up when he is ready, not because we are hoping to catch lightening in a bottle.
Posey, however, I think we should bring him up, like on the last day of August to make him playoff eligible, or for September, to be a bat off the bench and to experience a playoff push plus get him over his period of "awe" that some players get when they make the majors for the first time. That is, if they are sure he is going to be our starting catcher for 2010. If they are not sure, then I would bring him up just to be around the atmosphere, and keep the pressure off of him until next season.
But if his bat is ready - and Gordon Beckham's was - then I don't see why we don't bring him up to be a good bat on the bench for us, plus get a start or two.
I agree regarding Posey. He should get a fair number of ABs this Sept. I wouldn't bring him up in Aug just to make him playoff eligible. I would not want to start that MLB clock until certain he will be the starter out the gate next year.
I think you are reading too much into things when you suggest Bumgarner will necessarily take the same trajectory as Cain. Every pitcher is different. I agree that it is very unlikely he will start for the Giants next April, but I could see a mid-season call-up as Boof and Lefty intimate.
Nice breakdown but the only position where I can see the Giants get a hitter would be LF and let Schierholtz and Bowker fight over RF. You don't need a trade for that, and given that Sanchez appears ready to fulfill his potential, I like having a powerful rotation like that.
Sad to say, but I note the Lowry Precedence that you never know what will happen with your young pitchers, so I would rather keep Sanchez around to have a super rotation with Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, and #5.
And why sign an injury prone pitcher to be in our rotation? Pass!
I think that if the Giants think Posey is ready, they are probably leaning towards keeping the group we have now. Ishikawa has shown flashes of what he can do; he just needs to do it on the road now. Garko is a fallback should he fail. Franchez is 2B, Renteria SS, Panda 3B. Rowand is CF, Schierholtz is LF, Bowker fights Lewis for LF (unless free agent). That is your 2010 Giants then.
I see the Giants keeping the bullpen intact, except Matos takes Howry's place.
Lefty,
The Giants have the option to keep both Miller and Medders since they both will be arbitration eligable. After this year they will have 5+ and 3+ years of MLB service repectively. I think they should keep both and I agree that they will likely cost around $2M for both and no more the $3M for both. I would pay the $3M if we had too.
Thanks, this is helpful info.
Lefty,
I am with OGC that the Giants should not use Jonathan Sanchez as trade bait seeking a big bat. Big bats (especially ones that can play LF) will be available in free agency. I would much rather sign Holliday, Bay, or Dye at whatever the market price turns out to be then to trade Sanchez and sign a free agent starting pitcher instead. I would also not be inclined to trade either Romo or Valdez as it seems to me to be unlikely that they would be necessary pieces of a trade effort to aquire a big bat if that is how the Giants decide to go after one.
With this in mind my all in house pitching staff for 2010 would be:
Rotation - Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Sanchez with the 5th member being an open competition in spring training.
Bullpen - Wilson, Affeldt, Miller, Medders, Romo, Valdez with the 7th member being an open competition in spring training.
I was thinkin Duke as well. Your psychic.
For set up guy, I was thinking the lefty beimel.
My hunch is that Sabean pulls a Matt Williams type trade, where he pursues a bat by selling some of his pitching. I remember how much i hated that trade (because I loved Williams), but soon realized that it had made the Giants much better.
Let's face it, only Lincecum, Cain and probably Sandoval are absolutely untouchable.
How close are the Giants really? The Dodger series would indicate not as close as we think.
If the idea is to compete for the World Series--and it is--then Sabean may finally be dealing from enough depth to shake it up and really improve the team.
I must disagree on Smoltz...if this guy's performance was under almost any other name, he's not getting interest. Check out a nice article at Circle the Bases, illustrating that he may not be able to sustain the bull pen rigors so well....
http://bases.nbcsports.com/2009/08/smoltz-to-be-released-somehow-has-several-suitors.html.php