What, no Aurilia?

THINGS I BELIEVE:

It would be frankly criminal if the Giants did not get a big bat during the offseason.

The Giants will not get a big bat during the offseason.

I think your guesses are pretty good. They will not cut Renteria loose, he will be a back-up if nothing else, although I suspect, as do you that he will be the starter next year whether he deserves it or not.

I have a hard time believing that neither Bowker nor Lewis will be on the opening roster next season, even if neither of them have a starting position. I think that the Giants would wave goodbye to the 32 year old Torres before they let that happen, and Velez is a huge question mark. I think you need to pencil in either Bowker or Lewis. The organization seems to have soured on Lewis and I suspect he will be dealt in a trade in the offseason. Too bad for the Giants in my opinion.

As a 5th man I would rather have Torres than Velez because he is a better runner and a better defensive replacement.

Does anyone know if Velez or Bowker have options next year? That will probably impact the Giants decision.

My only comment is in regards to Ishi. They have, evidently, largely given up on him. After a slow start, he was hitting near 300 from something like May 15 or so. I thought it made sense to get a RH hitting platoon partner, but, instead they got the (relatively) expensive Garko and announced he was going to be their main man, tho Ishi would get occasional starts. I don't expect they will do it, but my vote is to pencil in Ishi as the primary (3 out of 4 games) starter, give him a full year and see if his development continues.

I'm leery of the MUST ADD ONE BIG BAT!!! philosophy. Getting a big bat is going to cost quite a bit, in dollars or players or both, and most top-notch hitters are corner outfielders, where we have young players who need to start.

Jason Bay, for instance, is a fine hitter but an awful outfielder. He's about to turn 31, so he's not going to get better. Overall, he's very unlikely to be more than 10 or 15 runs more valuable than Bowker or Schierholtz. Those 10 or 15 runs would help, but signing him for four or five years just continues the Winn/Roberts/Rowand/etc. cycle of trying to build your team around players in decline while burying those who might actually get better.

If we're going to make a big move (and I don't necessarily think we should), it should be for a shortstop (Sanchez for Hardy?) or a third baseman (Figgins or Beltre), with Pablo moving to first.

Abreu's similar to Bay as a player but would come cheaper, so that's good. But he would create the same problem: investing in a declining commodity at the expense of youngsters.

Schierholtz has a career major-league line of .303/.331/.438 -- not great, but he's 25 and plays a good right field. Meanwhile, a conservative MLE for Bowker's season at Fresno is .289/.376/.485. I'd have those two guys pencilled into my starting lineup, along with Rowand, Sanchez, and Sandoval, and try to improve at the other positions.

Beltre would be a cheap high-reward play; you'd be hoping to catch his post-injury, post-Safeco bounceback. Not a very exciting move but it could pay off big.

That "best guess" roster looks like a prescription for another year of anemic offense (subject to the "free agent to be named later").

My best guess re Ishii: on Sunday, after Bochy had reamed the team for not being selective at the plate, Ishikawa swung early 4 times resulting in 3 weak grounders (and a K). If I were Boche, I would've been royally pissed and would've planted Ishii's heinie back in the late inning defensive replacement spot for another week.

Lefty, I think there will not be a geat deal of cleanup hitters that will be free agents this year and be reasonably priced. I like the idea of Chone Figgins a great deal (Crawford may also be available) because I dont see Velez as an ideal, permanent leadoff type. But Figgins will command a lot of money...$40 mill for 4 years seems to be the minimum he will command.

I also do not think Posey is going to be ready to handle the catching duties yet. I see Molina getting a one year deal and continuing as the starter, hopefully, we will have Brenly coaching and using Molina where he should be hitting in the 6th or 7th spot.

Hardy may certainly be available at a very decent price. I dont think we need to give up Sanchez even for him. Martinez or Pucetas may be all it takes. Dont think they would be that high on Sadowski (how quickly we forget about him). Garko will probably get shopped...

So some wishful thinking:

1) Figgins - 3B/LF
2) Sanchez - 2B
3) Pablito - 1B/3B
4) Hardy - SS (let's debate the merits)
5) Schierholtz - RF
6) Rowand - CF
7) Molina - C
8) Velez - LF/2B

Bench: Torres, Lewis (still surprised he has not been traded), Whiteside, Renteria and Ishikawa. Uribe/Frandsen/Burriss/Bowker as alternatives if Renteria is cut (but I doubt that will happen) or Lewis traded.

I would even experiment with Velez hitting 9th. The pithcer will probably make a third out often hitting 8th. Then you have Velez, Figgins, Sanchez and then Pablito in a traditional cleanup spot.

Figgins can also get moved over to second in 2011 (Sanchez probably can go by then), then maybe a Guzman or Villalona is prime time ready as a cleanup option or then you could seek a basher for first or third or if Velez or Schierholtz dont pan out, then a power hitting corner outfielder. Posey also should be ready by 2011 then.