When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.30.2009
Bruce Bochy: The Verdict Is In

It has begun. Sabean, Bochy. Bochy, Sabean. Will they, won't they? The talk will continue all week and into next, perhaps, as long as it takes Bill Neukom to decide the fates of Bruce Bochy and Brian Sabean. I have made up my mind on Bochy; I'll get there in a minute.

Andy Baggarly of the Merc took a stab this morning at guessing Neukom's intentions. Baggs bets Bill rehires Sabean, who in turn rehires Bochy. Baggs's colleague Tim Kawakami says do it, but only for two-year terms.

There are two games to play here. One is "What WILL Bill do," and it involves a lot of head-shrinking. Another is what SHOULD Bill do, and based on the comments you leave on a daily basis, I'd guess 90% of you vote for a clean management slate. I've made up my mind on Bochy, and tonight sealed the deal. He started Randy Winn in RF even though Arizona started lefty Doug Davis on the mound. Winn got two hits, fine, but what purpose did this serve? What better time to see if John Bowker or Nate Schierholtz can hang in against Davis? Bochy also seems determined to make sure Buster Posey gets the fewest at-bats possible even when Bengie is injured and on his way out. It seems silly to complain about Molina starting on a night he hits two home runs, but I stand my ground. If not a start for Posey tonight, why not a pinch-hit (instead of Aurilia) or a couple innings behind the plate?

I think Bochy has done good work with the pitching staff, giving Romo the chance to rebound quickly from his rough week, mixing in Runzler, and using Wilson for more than an inning on occasion. And I don't think the wacky lineups are so deeply to his discredit; you'd write strange things on a lineup card, too, if you had the roster he had to work with. But it's the veteran lust -- the old bugaboo that drew so many complaints in San Diego -- that has finally done it for me. This team needs a manager who'll let youngsters not named Pablo Sandoval play on a regular basis.

I'll give my opinion on Brian Sabean soon.



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I was pretty shocked at Winn starting against a lefty but let me try to figure it out. Bochy is a defense first manager and Winn is a premium defensive player. That's my read.

Molina? I'm guessing he is the team leader in the clubhouse and on the field. Bochy feels he is the heart of the team. That's my read on that, but what the hell do I know? I'm writing this from the outskirts of Bangkok and I never meet people who speak English let alone having heard of any of these guys.

I would extend both of them (Bochy and Sabean) for two years. But I would get some hitting coaches throuout the system who know something about plate discipline. I'm sure Carney is a great guy, much beloved by all the players and his mother, but when the hell did he learn plate discipline? He sure never had it during his career. And now he's supposed to teach something that he never learned or put into practice himself?

ooookay.

>>Bochy is a defense first manager and Winn is a premium defensive player. That's my read.

Good read. That's probably what motivated Boch, as well as Winn's .300 lifetime avg vs. Davis. But Nate has proven himself as good in RF as Winn. He certtainly has a better arm. Perhaps Nate has an injury keeping him from playing the field. Who the hell knows.

Reasons why Bochy should be fired (in order of import):
(1) Failure to use statistical analysis adequately. This fault shows up in line-up construction (e.g. Molina in the 4-hole all season, no high OBP at the top of the order), determining who should start (e.g. Lewis), and other daily management decisions (failure to execute small ball even when it is clear that only a run or two will be needed to win). As further evidence consider the nonsensical double switches to get L-R matchups even when these are not statistically advantageous. Even if Bochy did not have much to work with offensively, he failed to maximize what little he had, which is the sign of a bad manager. He deserves to be fired a hundered times over for this point alone.

(2) Overplaying veterans who are not performing (Renteria, Winn, Rowand, Molina) but giving younger players an incredibly and unreasonably short leash (e.g. Lewis, Schierholtz, Bowker, Frandsen) unless they happen to get hot for three days and then they get an infinite leash and the promise of a starting role next season (e.g. Velez)! It is amazing how short Lewis' leash was compared to Winn and Rowand. Lewis was benched after an approx. 6 week slump even though he was statistically the Giants best offensive performer among full season regulars the previous year.

(3) Not giving promising younger players consistent ABs to find an offensive rhythm (Bowker, Posey, Frandsen [although Frannie is not that promising] and Schierholtz, Ishikawa [to a degree]). The only counter-point here is Burriss, who was inexplicably handed the starting 2B job and it took nearly 1/2 the season for him to be sent down, even though he had never shown any evidence at any level of full-season professional play that he could perform offensively.

Points (2) and (3) are fatal flaws on a team that is trying to rebuild, because the vets who will not be part of the future of the team get all the playing time while the younger players who will potentially be part of the team going forward are never fully evaluated. So the Giants don't really know what they have with Schierholtz, Bowker, Lewis, Frandsen, and Posey going forward. Moreover, these players lose out on the experience they need at the MLB level, meaning that next year they will have to try to make the adjustment (Lewis is perhaps an exception here since this is his second year).

On the other side of the coin, Bochy's management of the pitching staff was terrible for the first quarter of the season, leaving Zito in too long for every start and using the wrong guys in high leverage situations (e.g. Howry). However, once he started using Affeldt as his "escape artist" and once Romo emerged, things dramatically improved. I give him passing marks in his handling of the pitching staff, although I don't think his job in this department would be classified as good--just adequate. It certainly doesn't outweigh his terrible, terrible management of the offense.

There is no way Bochy should be retained. He is a terrible manager in general, but an insanely awful manager on a rebuilding team.

I agree that Bochy needs to go.

But, really, the Lewis apologists don't know what they are talking about. For over a month, before he was finally pretty much sat down, May 16 to June 22, he hit .188/.253/.363/.615 in 80 AB. How much longer do you play that before you go with Schierholtz?

They just look at his OBP and pout that he shouldn't be sat down, but starters can not be hitting that poorly over such and extended period of time, they have to be more consistent in their production, which is why Winn has had the career he has had, he's been Mr. Consistent for much of his career.

I understand that Winn wasn't much better, .268/.298/.358/.655, but I think the experts pretty much admit that he's one of the best defenders in the majors, Fielding Bible usually had him among the top in Plus, and I think his UZR supports that assertion too. So he would have to hit pretty poorly to get replaced by a, at best, defense neutral Fred Lewis.

In fact, his numbers didn't even reach Lewis' poor stats until August, which is around when he started to see less starts.

And Lewis, apparently didn't understand how badly he looked on both defense and offense for the most part this season, as he groused publicly about needing to be somewhere else next season. I'm sure that meant that he was probably bitching big time with Giants management regarding being sat down, but Randy Winn at 700 OPS and one of the best defense in the majors beats a Lewis in the mid-700 OPS and one of the most mediocre defenses in the majors.

If Schierholtz wasn't around, then maybe Fred plays, but Nate deserved a chance too, and Fred fumbled his. Such it up and start hitting, instead of complaining.

The complaint vis-a-vis Lewis isn't that he wasn't in a huge offensive and defensive slump for a substantial chunk of the season, it is that he was given no chance to re-establish himself afterwards. Lewis started the season hot, then went cold for 5 or 6 weeks, and that was essentially the end of his opportunity as a starter. How long was Rowand cold this last season? Pretty much the whole second half. How long was he cold this season? For about the first 1/3 and the last 1/3, yet he is entrenched as a starter. Lewis was cold for a much shorter period of time and he is perma-benched, even though he was the best overall offensive performer on the Giants last season and played above average defense. How about Winn? He under-performed all season yet is still starting as of last night even though there is no future for the club with Winn and the Giants are out of contention. This is nonsense.

It is hard to "suck it up and start hitting" rather than complain when you are stuck on the bench. Lewis did in fact start hitting when given limited opportunities. Yet he remained glued to the pine.

Bochy seems to allot playing time based on contract size and veteran status rather than on actual merit and the need to rebuild. Bochy also does not seem to understand the value of OBP at the top of the linen-up, something Lewis could have given this team.

Bochy's handling of Velez undercuts the argument that young players never got a second chance. Bochy gave Frandsen several looks, and did give FLew opportunities to show that he had corrected his flaws and was ready to be an everyday player. I can't think of anything Lewis did after May that would've justified putting him back in the lineup.

I would bring Bochy back because he knows these players and continuity is important with a young team. But I'm not strident on that position, and if management identified a young manager who could use modern statistics and techniques to get the most out of the team, I'd be fine with a change.

Regarding Velez, refer to my comment above about "unless you happen to get hot for three days". The Giants' handling of Velez is just more evidence of poor decision making by the Giants based on an incredibly small sample. It is very doubtful that Velez' OBP and SLG combo can play at a corner outfield position for any MLB team (when data is over a reasonable sample) based on Velez overall minor league and major league performance. It is telling that Lewis' OPS is higher than Velez' for the season, even though a bunch of Lewis ABs this season came during his huge slump. Velez should remain a utility man or at best a platoon CF since he is much stronger against RHP.

I apologize for my ignorance, but I don't follow the argument.
1. If the issue is "sample size" then Rowand, Renteria and Winn should've started every game possible because they had larger "sample sizes" than everyone else (Bochy's "track record" argument). In each case, their actual performance this season undercuts that argument, which is why the Giants are (correctly) faulted for making decision regarding these players based on "large sample sizes."

2. I understood the point about Lewis to be that he never got a chance to play himself back into the lineup; my point was that Bochy did give Velez a chance to play himself back into the lineup, and (to me, anyway) he gave the same chance to Lewis, Frandsen, and Bowker. [I can see an argument re Schierholtz, but not Lewis.]

3. I like Freddie Lew, but he was as bad an outfielder as I've seen this side of Adam Dunn and ManRam, and he did NOT produce when given playing time. If OPS says that Lewis should've played ahead of Velez, then OPS and a lot of fans disagree. Lewis took some walks, but he did not drive in runs and did not make much contact.

4. Agreed that Velez's numbers don't make him a productive corner outfielder, but they make him a very productive 2B or utility player.

I don't understand your point no. 1.

Regarding 2 and 3. Neither Bowker nor Schierholtz really got a chance this year. The Giants management had an "instant production or you're out" philosophy for the newbies, which is just not fair because it overweights a statistically insignificant sample size. What is the difference between a career .300 hitter and a career .250 hitter? The hall of fame (perhaps) or AAAA status. Statistically however the difference is one more hit per 20 ABs, that is one extra hit ever 4 or 5 games. Thus, in order to tell the difference between random occurence and actual performance, a player needs at least 150-200 consistent ABs (so not pinch-hitting, platooning every couple days, or spot starting) to get anything close to a meaningful sample (roughly 1/4 to 1/3 of a season), at least according to stuff I have read elsewhere. The Giants have not generally been willing to give their prospects the consistent, everyday ABs they need to get this sample and find out what they have with their prospects. Plus most players need a bit of an adjustment period (a couple weeks) before the clock should even begin on their 150-200 ABs due to the leap in quality of pitching.

As for Lewis, he did actually perform quite well after his benching, but because he was already in the doghouse and Velez was "hot" based on a small sample (and the Bochy couldn't fathom benching his beloved vets Rowand or Winn even though both were terrible), Lewis couldn't get anything other than an occasional spot start or pinch-hit. Usually your numbers are lower when acting as a spot-starter or a pinch-hitter, which makes it doubly hard to rebound. Yet Lewis has performed well in these roles (although not blistering "hot"), but he is still riding the pine today. His OBP skills are under-appreciated. His defense has been bad this year, but not nearly as bad as most people make it out to be because range is so much more important than errors in the outfield.

4. Glad we agree regarding Velez.

When you offer your opinion of Brian Sabean, I hope you remember what you wrote here today: "you'd write strange things on a lineup card, too, if you had the roster he had to work with." I can't say I'm much of a Bochy fan, but you start at the top and work down. Earl Weaver himself would have problems making a useful offense out of what Sabean might give him.

It's called rebuilding and you can't rebuild a team quickly, it takes a number of years.

Now, if we have the same offense two years from now, definitely, he should be gone.

But this is the lifecycle of a rebuilding team, it will be strong in certain areas, weak in others, and each year you fix another problem area on the road to being good again. Nobody rebuilds in 1-3 years.

It took the Braves 6 years to win again, but if you take your time and do the rebuild well, you can win for the next 15-20 years like they did. I think the path Sabean is taking is leading to that.

What other people have been suggesting, trading off one of our starters, trading off Bumgarner and/or Posey, basically shooting all we got to win in the next two years, just sets us up to go through another 2005-2008 period in a few years, with no guarantee that we will even reach the World Series in the next two years, let alone win it.

The playoffs leading up to the World Series is just a complicated crapshoot, a gauntlet set up that pretty much ensures that dynasties don't really happen as much or as easily anymore.

The key to winning the World Series at least once is to create a good mix of strong talent that will carry us through the next 10-15 years, and not to act like we've never made the playoffs before and desperately trade off everything in hopes of winning in the playoffs. We need to build up the talent pool to carry us through the long-term, because trades, as much as people love them, are risky too. I've seen too many George Foster, Gaylord Perry, etc. deals to think that trades are riskless ventures that helps everybody.

That is the way to do it, that and the focus on pitching in the draft, and building a strong defensive team, with just enough offense to get us into the playoffs.

Amen OGC! The art and science of rebuilding means building with a consistent vision and plan in place with a relentless focus on executing to the plan. For a swiss cheese team like the Giants this means IT WILL TAKE TIME. Try and fill a few holes each year - in 09' the bullpen became a force, Panda a revelation and Cain stepped up - those are holes filled. In all I have enjoyed this year.

Well, he's had 13 years now and what have we gotten.......SQUAT. End of discussion.

Why do you assume that Molina is on his way out? Please don't read John Shea's opinion piece in this morning's Chronic unless your stomach is well settled, but yesterday's article on Posey suggests that he has much to learn about catching. It suggests that Sabean (who is being cagey because his contract status is unsettled) is not ready for the Posey era to begin. This is not to suggest that I am at odds with the prevailing opinion of what should be, I have just found that, with the Giants, pessimism has served me well.

The Devil you know, you know? Maybe the question is - who will be available that you'd rather have? Wedge? No thanks!

Also, It seems our management has very short term memories. Now I'm worried that since Molina hit 2 dongs in a game, late in the season and now has 20 that will be given more weight than it should. "Dang, our catcher had 20 homers, we MUST resign him."

I'm sure he wants to give Richie his due but why not pinch hit him in the final game, let him take the field and take him out. He deserves his ovation but NO Reason what so ever to use him, or Winn right now.

As I stated yesterday, bring back Bochy (and Sabean) will be signing up for more of the same crap we've had to endure for quite a number of seasons now. It's time for a radical shakeup in Giants management.....bot on the field and in the front office.

I would add in Bochy defense, if the decision on him is still dependent on what he does the rest of the season, as Neukom said in recent interviews, he has to straddle the line between being competitive enough to win and giving the young guys chances to play. Thus you play the vets often, while also giving the young players a shot too, as the vets have goals they want to reach too and you (meaning Bochy) need to win more games than not to end the season well enough.

In a vacuum, you can fantasy baseball it and just play your young guys and superglue the vets to the bench. But other players (i.e. vets) will see that and probably decide that if the Giants ever want to sign them as a free agent, they would not want to be with Bochy and go elsewhere, as the word will be out.

Plus, you have to realize that this is the last homestand and a number of players will probably/possibly not be here next season, and you want to give them time on the field so that the fans can show their appreciation.

And really, is one AB, a few inning caught, really going to affect Posey in any way?

Except you are assuming that the vets in question (Winn, Rowand, Molina) actually give the Giants a better chance of winning. Apart from Molina, this is almost certainly not true.

Question,Assuming Sabean and Bochy are gone do we promote Evans and Wotus? I here the Giants are very high on Steve Decker.

Ron Wotus is a possible candidate, yes.

Fire Bochy and hire someone with a pulse.

Winn in RF last night wasn't plain stupidity. It was arrogant and pompous stupidity.

And we pay money to see this?

According to the Giants' parallel universe logic, the customer is always wrong, and they're lunatics.

The Manic Giants Depressive writes: "It's called rebuilding and you can't rebuild a team quickly, it takes a number of years...But this is the lifecycle of a rebuilding team, it will be strong in certain areas, weak in others, and each year you fix another problem area on the road to being good again. Nobody rebuilds in 1-3 years."

You said the same thing years ago when they started losing. It's as though history started this season. The Giants haven't made the playoffs for six years - along with Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Florida and Washington. Every single one of those teams realized that their present GM did not have the skills to assemble a winner and moved on.

I think there's nothing Brian Sabean could do to convince you that he doesn't know what he's doing. The farm system has produced one major-league hitter in 10 years (and no, Pedro Feliz doesn't count.) Sure, all those bottom ten finishes got the Giants some nice draft picks, but if Sabean had his way, he would have ditched the picks intentionally because they're "not worth it," a strategy so brilliant that no team ever followed suit.

Bottom line: you want to give Sabean another couple of years? It doesn't take eight years to re-build. Arizona and Florida both won the World Series *five* years after they joined the league.

Another vote from me for the clean management slate.

92% naow...

I'd echo the reply that mentioned 13 years, but I'll put it a slightly different way. Brian Sabean has been in charge of the Giants for long enough now that we understand how he evaluates talent. Whatever else he does right, it is clear by this point that Sabean has no interest in OBP, is enamored of Proven Veterans (tm), and is essentially clueless about offense. Since J.T. Snow left (and Snow wasn't exactly the greatest 1B of all time), Sabean filled 1B with Shea Hillenbrand, Travis Ishikawa, Chad Santos, Ryan Klesko, Rich Aurilia, John Bowker and Ryan Garko. We're talking about first base ... I imagine if we took a consensus of names pulled out of the asses of the people commenting on this thread, we'd come up with a better person to play 1B than that motley crew. We're not talking about finding a SS who hits like A-Rod ... we're talking about a league-average 1B, which isn't that hard to find. Bonds has been gone for two years ... LF is still a haphazard mess.

Yes, you are right, rebuilding takes time. It also takes a GM who can put together a reasonable offense to go with the fine pitching the Giants (and Sabean, to give credit where it's due) have compiled. There is nothing in Sabean's track record to suggest he knows how to build that offense, and he's had enough time for us to evaluate him in that regard.

The whole rebuilding arguement that some are trying to use as an excuse for Sabeans impotence is enough to make me type a long winded ranting post with a broken wrist which makes it a shit ton harder but worth the while.

Sabean doesn't know the meaning of the word "rebuild". He hasn't technically ever come out and admitted that we were rebuilding at any time in his 14 years. In Sabeans eyes, he is putting together a competitive team every year and truly beleives that he can win every season otherwise how do you explain him overpaying consistently with guys like Renteria, Rowand, Winn, Roberts, Aurelia, Durham, Benard, Alfonso, the list goes on.

If he were ever actually rebuilding then at least one of the last four years he would have put down his checkbook and opted to go with a few young guys, see what potential they had, and used the money he saved to get a centerpiece (Texeira, Beltran, Hunter instead of Rowand, etc.) that would be with this team for years.

Instead he spends money on broken down vets that dont perform to the averages on the back of their baseball cards. It is no surprise either, just ask anyone else in baseball if they would have paid the amounts that Sabean paid guys like Rowand, Zito, and Renteria and they will laugh in your face. Even the majority of people posting on blogs like this knew that Renteria was done, if we were really in a rebuilding stage then Burriss and Frandsen would have been battling it out at short with Uribe to back em up.

Aside from the piss poor free agent acquisitions that Sabean has made, his trades of late have been inexplicable. Another example of Sabeans vision of the future is trading away our second best pitching prospect for an injury prone, slow, soft hitting, 2 hole hitter when we havent had any success with a similar player over the last 4 years in Winn.

Rebuilding a team typically doesn't include acquiring downside of their career role players like Sanchez and overpaying them like he is sure to do this offseason. How can anyone make the arguement that he is rebuilding and improving this team when the best he could do at the trade deadline was a backup first basemen from a horrible team and an allstar second baseman that was on an offense that was so horrible that they had to send him to 3 all star games in a row because nobody else was even remotely worth sending.

After 14 years I think we know what we are getting with Sabean. He has no new and bright ideas. If he is resigned for 2 years then get ready for 2 more years if losing. It wouldn't have taken much for him to improve this team and keep his job, look how good Bonds made him look all those years. Pretty amazing that he has had no plan to even attempt to replace him after seeing first hand how well it worked having a centerpiece in this lineup everyday.

By the time Sabean has "rebuilt" this team the Giants will be losing stud pitchers to free agency.


You all are a bit too harsh regarding our prospects for next year. Baring injuries, we will begin the year with the best starting rotation in the major leagues. Given our pitching, we need only one or two bats (meaning legitimate hitters to bat third and fifth, with Pablo batting cleanup) to make the Giants a very dangerous team next year.

we need only one or two bats

Assuming Sanchez and Benjie return, they still need to replace LF, CF, RF and 1B. Unless you think Velez gives league average production for LF, Ish does at 1B, and Nate does in RF.

I've seen no evidence beyond hope that these players will learn to recognize pitches and raise their OBP to anywhere near acceptable levels.

Four years of rebuilding has gotten them to this.

Oh.....and if you needed any other evidence that Bochy should go.......your starting catcher last night...Eli Whiteside. It is totally irrelevant that he drove in 3 runs. With 5 games to go, Posey should be in the starting lineup every day. Period.

2010 moves sign molina 2years 4.5 million 2.25 per he earned it. Tell him he will hit 7th or 8th and backup in year 2.sign Figgins he is a type B free agent and you should get him for a reasonable amount 3 years 16 million thats 6 per. He is worth what they gave Dave roberts and that was in a good economy.Pablo goes to first base.Re sign Freddy Sanchez but grind the fuck out of him on price without pissing him off too bad!Trade Rowand straight up for Milton the militant angry black man. Even if he shits the bed and pisses everyone off just release him and you save 15 million( Rowand sucks and he is a bust)Now for the tricky part I dont have a feel for how much it will take to sign Penny but he signed with Boston for pretty cheap (one year 7.5?)now you package a trade with sanchez or if you have to Cain with RENTERIA for a shortstop. Now we have something going!!!! Go ahead and tear it apart.

Chone Figgins will get at least what Furcal got last offseason which was around 40 mil over 4 years if not more.

Lefty, we will probably be stuck with both, but this is what Neukom should do:

Tell Sabean that he fire Bochy, that Neukom will hire his own manager.
Give Sabean a two-year extension. The dismissal of Bochy would be a threat to Sabean and would hopefully light a fire.

Yeah, like the federal government lit a fire under Wall St.

Sorry, I'm having movable type technical difficulties and day-job deadlines, but tune in tonight (or early tomorrow morning) for my two cents on the Sbean/Bochy nes.

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