Nothing like a couple of blowouts to return a bit of bounce to your Dr. Scholl's. We all know the numbers: a sweep of Colorado puts the Giants 1 1/2 back with 16 to go. Doable. Split the next two, and it's 3 1/2 back with the Giants praying for a Rocky collapse.
A small corner of my soul wants to see a lineup full of Poseys (and Bowkers and Frandsens) every day from here on out, but even mathematical elimination a week from now won't open the prospect floodgates. Still, I'm with the guy in the stands who bellowed in the ninth inning last night, loud enough to be heard over the radio broadcast, "Bochy! Where's Posey!! It's #$%&* 9-1 in the ninth inning!"
Bochy could have inserted Posey as a pinch-runner for Molina in the bottom of the 8th but didn't, and Molina couldn't score on what should've been a sac fly. It turned out fine, what with Eugenio Velez's bases-clearing triple, but come on, why not? We know the kid's not going to take the reins or even get a start, but throw us a bone, Boch.
If we can't properly evaluate Posey, Bowker et al the next couple weeks, at least Brad Penny has created a big fat -- OK, solidly built -- off-season decision for the Giants. Do they make a run at him before he hits free agency? Before you dismiss his three stellar games in black and orange as contract motivation, remember a few things:
1) The offense will not get appreciably better without a major trade of a starting pitcher.
2) There's no guarantee Madison Bumgarner will be ready next year.
3) Joe Martinez might get better and do decent back-of-rotation work. He might not.
4) Penny looks healthy and loves pitching in the NL West.
No doubt the Giants have a dollar-and-year figure in mind with some parameters. A bare-bones one-year deal with tasty incentives for a second year? That works for me. Assume he wants to stay in the N.L., and perhaps more specifically in the West. We know he's not going back to L.A. Would San Diego outbid the Giants for him? Unlikely. Colorado and Arizona? He's no fool. Competition will come more from outside the division.
The Giants will also have to make decisions on their two mid-year acquisitions. Freddie Sanchez has an $8 million club option, which seems steep to me at this point. Expect the Giants to try to spread that cash over a couple years with a contract extension. The risk with Sanchez, though, is that he's at an age, 31, where the various ouchies could keep adding up, just like the past few weeks. The Giants could have another Ray Durham on their hands, but with less power and on-base ability. (For those who cringe at Durham's name, remember that when he played, he was very good. At least for the first few years of his contract.)
Then there's Ryan Garko. Who? Exactly. After playing nearly every day in August, he's had nine at bats in September and only one the past week. Maybe he's nursing an injury, but I think Bochy got tired waiting around for Garko to find his power swing. Problem is, the Giants need to make a call on Garko this winter: arbitration or no? Do they pay him a couple mil or more, or do they throw him on the pile of failed midseason trades and cut him loose? His nightmarish Giants stint makes that evaluation all the more difficult.
But if I had to handicap it, it's not looking good. Tim Lincecum will get a meaty raise. F. Sanchez will probably be on board. Brian Wilson and J. Sanchez, if around, will be arb-eligible. Someone's going to be odd man out.
According to this, which is a few months out of date, the Giants have $51 million committed next year, not including arb awards. Lincecum alone will make between $5 and $10 million. His baseline: Cole Hamels was ready for arbitration last winter but signed a three-year, $20 M deal with a 2009 salary of $4.35 M. If Lincecum goes long-term, assume his 2010 pay will be higher. If he goes year-to-year in arbitration, he will approach $10 million -- Ryan Howard territory.
Add to that $8 million for F. Sanchez, a couple mil each for Wilson and J. Sanchez, and we're about $70 million. Will the Giants stretch to $90 million in payroll, a figure they haven't hit since 2007? How about beyond? In this economy, not bloody likely. And a top free agent hitter and another starting pitcher will get them to $90 M quickly.
The solution of course is to trade Aaron Rowand and Edgar Renteria and Barry Zito: a combined $40 million in payroll next year. Get on that, Sabes.
