I never thought I'd say this, but thank God Bochy probably doesn't understand statistics.

Gotta give Sabean credit: when he sets out to build around pitching and defense, he gets legitimately great pitching and defense. He now needs to strike a better balance between offense and defense, but I hope he doesn't feel too pressured to upgrade the offense at all costs -- adding Jermaine Dye or Adam Dunn isn't going to get us anywhere.

A quick comment on "regression to the mean". Just because the Giants overperformed expectations this year does not make it more probable that the Giants will regress to the mean next year. Past outcomes can not be considered when projecting future probabilities from within a "mid-point" within this kind of a model. For example, if we are flipping coins, the initial probability of "heads" coming up 3 times in a row is 1/8. However, if one stands in the middle of the sequence of flips, and "heads" has already come up twice, the probability of it coming up a third time is 1/2 not 1/8. In the same way, if one were to assess the probability of the Giants overperforming two years in a row at the beginning of the two year sequence, then one would predict a "regression to the mean" over the course of the two year sequence. However, now that we stand at the mid-point in the sequence, the odds are neither in favor or against the Giants over-performing next year. So, a backslide is not more probable next year just because the Giants over-performed this year.

At least this is my understanding of how probability works in this sort of a case, although I am by no means an expert on probability, so someone feel free to correct me if I am wrong.

you're right - but as ELM frmaed the question, it's relative to their performance last year, not this year. So while you might revise your predictions upwards slightly based on this year's results, you would still expect next year to be back in the direction of last year.
Everything else being equal.
Which it's not, given the vagaries of MLB, the hazards of carrying deer meat down the stairs or ironing your shirt while wearing it, and Sabean's veteran-contract-season-push fantasies.

Projections are faulty. Just because people can make phony extrapolations doesn't mean performances will follow in the real world.

Call it a cosmic non sequitur.

Bravo to the Giants as a team and as individuals who proved this b.s. to be, well, b.s.

Prospectus has a formula that adjusts for how many runs a team "should" score based on how many singles/homers/walks/etc. they produce, then runs that through the Pythagorean formula. According to that, the 2009 Giants were about an 83-79 team.

Lefty, my sense is that our pitching will be better next year. Arguments:

1) Brad Penny will likely replace Randy Johnson and be more consistent. No Joe Martinez-Sadowski's in the rotation;

2) Zito will hopefully be more of the second-half form than the first half form of the first three years. If he can be a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher, we are going to be relaly tough;

3) Sanchez hopefully has this all figured out and can be consistent for a whole year;

4) Cain tailed off again in the second half...more conditioning and more runs being scored on his behalf will hopefully translate to a stronger second half pitcher next year;

5) Lincecum will likely be better. His strikeouts may be lower and maybe a few more wins and less innings pitched will keep his arm strong all year and able to withstand the summer heat in the East;

6) Bullpen with Howry gone, Romo in place as the rightye setup and Runzler as an extra lefty, Medders and maybe Joe Martinez as the long guys, Affeldt and Wilson continuing their pace and hopefully Joaquin over Valdez (he would be one of my top trade candidates, maybe someone would think of his as a closer), I think makes this a better pen and maybe the best in the majors. I would just like to see Bochy be less rigid in use of the bullpen, having Wilson coming in the 8th is a plus when needed. But I like to see Affeldt/Romo starting 9th innings and trying to get a couple of quick out before bringing Wilson in.

So the major argument on regression will be with the defense and offense. Freddie Sanchez for a whole year will make second base more consistent. I think Pablo will be playing more first if Uribe is brought back. Uribe will likely play more third and Renteria better be better post-elbow surgery. No excuses. If he does not perform well at the start, Uribe should be moved over to short.

Why does Ishi have such a pronounced affect hitting at home versus the road? Velez will not be a gold-glover in left, but obviously better than Fred Lewis. Dye potentially playing right is a downgrade from Nate or Winn, but I could see Dye playing primarily 4-5 days/week in right, maybe a day in left and Torres and Nate splitting starts in center and right. I think overall, our defense will likely be more consistent and it was probably a plus defense last year. I would like to see them getting to more balls in the infield.

Plus, if Bengie is back, less playing time, especially at the start of the year will be beneficial to Bengie not wearing out so early and will hopefully make him a better hitter...