All Quiet on the Giants Rumor Front, Unless...
...the
possible return of Yorvit Torrealba works you into a lather. I spilled a good deal of verbiage
here discussing the need for a Plan B in case Buster Posey isn't ready, so I won't rehash it. But before you get all warm and nostalgic for Yorvit, peruse his last few years worth of stats as a Rockist:
consistently not good with the stick even with his home games at Coors. The only number to spark a bit of interest is his 2009 OBP of .350, but I wouldn't count on a late-career light bulb of plate discipline going "Ding!" above Yorvit's head.
It might be slow for a while. Brian Sabean has said he won't rush into the free agent market like he did last year, when he sewed up Affeldt, Howry and Renteria by December 1 or so. He also saw guys like Bobby Abreu do fine work for other teams in '09 after signing late in the off-season on the cheap, so he's learned his lesson. And economically speaking, this year could be even harsher than the previous. Just a hunch, but baseball fans who couldn't afford tickets this past year probably aren't rushing out to buy season tickets this winter.
The real test of the market will come when the non-Yankee teams make their bids for the guys just below the Holliday/Bay/Lackey $15-million-per-year tier. I don't see anyone else
on this list cracking $10-mil-per-year on their new contracts. Do you? A fascinating case, perhaps the bellwether of the free-agent crop, will be Brad Penny. His stuff hasn't diminished. Everyone saw him throw 95 with a nasty curve when he came back to the National League after an ugly stint in Boston. At this point, I'd take him over Oliver Perez, but no chance Penny will sniff anything close to the 3 years/$30 M the Mets forked over to Perez last winter.
While we wait for someone, anyone to set the market (no,
Omar Vizquel doesn't count), the big news this weekend was that the Giants protected four young players on the 40-man roster: Francisco Peguero, Kevin Pucetas, Darren Ford, and Brett Pill. Pucetas is the most likely to make an appearance in the bigs next year. Last year at this time, a pitcher with similar skills, Joe Martinez, went on the 40-man and ended up with the W on opening day.
Pucetas might be a fifth-starter/long-man candidate, but he was hit hard in AAA last year, so he might be more of an emergency call-up who has to prove himself again in Fresno to merit serious consideration. First-baseman Pill was a middling prospect coming out of college, but he
broke out this year at Double-A Connecticut as a 24-year-old, so no doubt the Giants are curious if he's a late bloomer.
Darren Ford represents a small -- OK, tiny...OK, laughably pyrrhic -- victory for Brian Sabean. Ford was the player exchanged for Ray Durham a couple years ago. That the Giants got someone who has made it to the 40-man is quite a feat. Problem is, he's been in High-A ball for three years, and it's just starting to click.
Question of the day: What position will the Giants' first acquisition of the winter play? Left field? Third base? Backup catcher? You get a bonus for naming the actual player, and a super bonus for coming close to the real contract terms.
I've seen those rumors that the Giants are interested in Yorvit Torrealba. What a perfect fit that guy would be. Here are Torrealba’s lifetime numbers:
255/315/390/706
Here are The Giant’s numbers for 2009 as a team:
257/309/389/699
Can Sabean find a more perfect fit that that? Yorvit (I guess I can call him Yorvit) is a little strong in OBP but the Giant numbers include pitchers so that should even out. He was asking 4.5 mil for two years in Colorado so I guess he would sign for 6 mil. Even better, Yorvit is on the plus side of thirty so he should age evenly with the rest of the team as they all sink together in a happy clubhouse. It’s hard to believe how creative the Sabean team is.
Excuse me now while I go throw up in the bathroom. No, no, not about this. It’s about something else that just came to mind
But we can't sign Yorvit to catch for us, Sabean and Co. assured us he's not a legit major league starter. That's why we had to trade a future Hall-of-Fame closer and 2 others to pry AJ from the Twins! And then had to spend millions importing bad closers, furthering our spiral down into nowhere.
If Sabean signs Yorvit now... can the contract come with a public Sabean lashing?
Just curious.
I will get to my answer to the question of the day (ok here it is, Torrealba for two years and $6 mill as Walter just suuggested), but I have a primo bluckbuster for the group...and yes I am being serious...
Miguel Cabrebra and Curtis Granderson for Matt Cain, Aaron Rowand (they have to suck back some cash), Merkin Valdez, Henry Sosa, Ryan Garko (get back to the DH/AL Ryan) and Jesus Guzman.
I think the free agent market sucks this year and we need two hitters. The salary base would be for 2010 Cabrera getting $20 mill and Granderson $5.5 while we give up Rowand's ridiculous $13.6 and Cain will earn $4.5 mill. The others will probably be no more than $2 mill. So the Gaints would take on $25.5 mill, but $20.1 salary would come off the books.
So net, our payroll would increase by just $5.4 million and we add two premier hitters...where are we going to get that on the open market?
Why would Detroit do it, they are in a world of hurt financially. Making this move will save them after this year just over $57 million from 2011-2014. They get a premier young power arm to add to Verlander, Edwin Jackson and Porcello, maybe giving them the best rotation in the AL. In Valdez, they get a nice set-up to Rodney (who they can now afford to keep). They pick up a young slugger in Guzman and Garko or Guzman can step in at first (if they want Ishikawa instead, fine by me) and add Sosa to sweeten the pot. Rowand sucks, but the Tigers would have to eat some salary for any team to swallow the $104 million Cabrera has coming to him (and I dont think the Tigers would swallow Zito instead).
What the Giants get, one monster hitter and another solid center-fielder with speed (20 stolen bases last year) who hit 30 homers, get rid of death at the plate hitters in Rowand and Garko and I think this would make the Giants NL West favorites.
What does this do for Giants payroll for 2010? I am adding in $3 mill for Torrealba and I think losing Cain makes Penny at $8 mill a year (I prefer a two-year deal, but we may have to go to three) a must-have.
With Granderson and Cabrera added to the main group of players with Lincecum at $10 mill for arbitration, Brian Wilson at $4 mill and J. Sanchez at $2 million, I have the base salary at $80 million. If you add in all the Sandovals(not arb eligible yet), bench players and relievers, I add in another $7.5 mill for a total of $87.5.
If we do add Penny at $8 mill and Torrealba at $3 mill, that takes payroll to $98.5 mill, not an overwhleming amount compared to the nearly $89 million from last year's payroll. If you look at the rough 2001 base payroll with similar arb numbers for Lincecum, Wilson and J. Sanchez, I get $86.75 in total payroll. So any extra arb dollars would be built in for Sandoval, Lincecume and company that should keep it under $100 mill for 2011 as well. Next up my lineup for 2010:
Here we go again.
Unrealistic that the Tigers would let BOTH Cabrera and Granderson go for that price. Cain, Garko are the only proven players on that list. That isn't enough for one, let alone both.
The rest of the list is inadequate as Rowand is a grossly over-priced mediocrity and the rest of those players are not desirable.
In all of the trade chatter, when have you ever heard other teams' management, reporters, or fans say they really, really want Merkin Valdez, Jesus Guzman, or Travis Ishikawa? They don't even register. There used to interest in Sosa until he got injured.
If we want Detroit's two best players, we have to part with some of our best players, not just Matt Cain.
I was ready to disagree, as most such suggestions are not realistic, but I like your basic premise and the thought process.
The only thing I would say is that if I were the Tigers, I would also be demanding Bumgarner in the deal too. Sure, they need to save money, and if backed into a corner, they might make such a deal as this. But Dombrowski hasn't made it big as a GM just to cave in on deals.
If I were he, I would say that Cabrera and Gunderson are two of the premier hitters around. Cain would be good, but the rest are nice throw-ins, so I would demand Bumgarner as then the deal would be basically Cabrera/Gunderson for Cain/Bumgarner/throw-ins.
Now, if the Tigers really need to cut cuts, another way this could go would be that the Tigers would want the Giants to take Dontrelle Willis' ugly contract instead of giving up Bumgarner. At $12M, that would pretty much kill the rest of the budget plans you had, meaning Penny is out of your shopping list, but maybe the Giants bring up Bumgarner instead.
Lincecum, Sanchez, Zito, Bumgarner, Martinez/Pucetas? That would be very lefty oriented.
Willis, if being at home helps him, is also a lefty (big Giants fan) and he might be willing to do a deal just to be with SF, say tear up the $12M deal for a year and sign a $15M deal for 3 years.
If, as you say, Sabean has learned his lesson about rushing into the FA market, then what was the rush to sign Freddie Sanchez to a deal?
Sabes had to decide what to do with Franchez quickly because he had a 8 million dollar option that needed to be excercised or he would be a free agent. Sabes wasn't going to have the player Alderson brought just walk after so few games played. New deal lowered the 2010 price tag to 6 million.
Yes, one mistake begat another mistake.
OK lineup time:
1) Velez/Torres - LF
2) F. Sanchez - 2B
3) Pablo - 3B
4) Cabrera - 1B
5) Granderson - CF
6) Schierholtz - RF
7) Torrealba - C
8) Renteria - SS
Rotation:
Lincecum
Zito
Penny
Sanchez
Pucetas/Martinez/Bumgarner
I think with Zito's albatross contract and Liuncecum is going to pushing similar numbers, it will be very hard keeping Cain at $10 mill plus that he may command in a couple of years.
I think this lineup can take them deep in the playoffs. If Zito can stay at .500 and Sanchez becomes what Cain was last year...
Good point about Cain's budding salary possibility. I had not thought about that.
I would add that he's going to make a lot more than $10M, probably in the $15-20M range, unless he signs a home-discount deal this off-season. However, he signed a pretty sweet-heart home discount deal already with us, so I think he'll be looking to make up for that by asking for fair market value in his next deal. And that would put him above the $10M in the 2011 off-season market, which makes your point even better, as we won't be able to afford both (plus Zito).
You've made it clear to me that we need to trade Cain within the next year to get good value for him back from the other team, unless he does sign a 2 year extension with the Giants for $20M as you suggest he would earn (any more and I think it might be hard to afford him).
People are down on Rowand because Sabean over paid him. Rowand was very average at his position this year but that is pretty good considering that his position was second best on the team compared to league average for positions. Most people want to fix a position that doesn’t need fixing. If the rest of the positions played up to average like Rowand’s did, they definitely would have been in the playoffs. (Nitpickers please note I’m talking about positions here not individual players.)
People are getting it totally wrong. Even if Yorvit is signed, he's just keeping the catcher position warm until Posey is ready to start. He is the backup.
I would also add that his numbers are probably skewed further (don't feel the urge to dig in his numbers) by the fact that he hammered LHP when he was with us, which is what gave all the fanboys hope that he would be a decent starter for us, because Dusty kept him away from RHP. And his .350 OBP is probably skewed by both his home park and LHP, I would bet.
He has proven to be what he is: stopgap starter when needed, but not a viable starter. The Rockies needed a starter and yet consistently pushed him aside when someone possibly better came along. That tells you how good he is.
And just because he turned down a 2 year, $4.5M deal does not mean that he's going to get more. He probably still thinks that he can be a starter somewhere and now is the time to search for that type of opportunity, while you are a free agent and only 31.
While catchers often do mature late in their career, he has had plenty of chances with the Rockies to take the reins and consistently was not able to. He is no starter.
People blast the AJ trade but forget that at that time, even Baseball Prospectus, who normally takes a pot shot at the Giants (hmmm, I wonder if the Giants slammed the door on them when their selling rep came a knocking...), praised the deal, saying it was the right time to trade Nathan. I hated the deal but sabers told me that "relievers were dime-a-dozen", right GiantJim?
I have to assume the Giants are bottom fishing this year, given all the statements so far, so the only position to pursue is backup catcher. They need to secure a backup catcher capable of starting at least initially, but willing to sit as the backup all season if Posey is ready in spring training. That means much older catcher, probably cost more than usual so it will look like the Giants are overspending.
Greg Zaun, 2 years, $6M (it'll take mucho dinero to get him to move away from home-town Tampa Bay area; this is about what he made as a starter with the Jays). He'll be here to be backup as well as Posey's defensive mentor and guru. He's also not bad with the stick, very good OBP for his career.
I think that they have to bottom fish anyway, because of the uncertainty of how much they will need to pay Lincecum for 2010.
This offseason will be hard to predict otherwise. With the bottom fishing, it would be very hard to determine who they might acquire in that scenario, as it would depend on what other teams do. I expect a LF to be signed, on the cheap, in Jan/Feb, forcing a Bowker-Schierholtz battle for RF. If Uggla is available for a prospect (Noonan?), just to save money for the Marlins, then I see them getting him, moving Sanchez to 3B and Sandoval to 1B.
Wait it, out Brian Sabean. Torrealba is a $1 mil a year player.
We MUST GET Cabrera. This makes the most sense even if we have to give up something more than we really want to right now. He's still pretty young isn't he? Shit, I read on ESPN where it mentioned Nelson Cruz to the Giants. HELL NO but sounds like the kind of shit Sabes would pull. Of course Yorvit must be kicking himself for turning down $4.5 mil over 2 years. What the hell was he thinking?
If we must get Cabrera, then we must part with top of the line talent, not the AAAA "talent" Giants fans are in love with.
Top talent: Lincecum, Cain, B. Wilson, Posey, Bumgarner in addition to high B prospects.
Who do you want to let go?
I don't want to but we might have to move Cain. . . We can't expect to compete without O. We could still have a solid staff but you're right, we need to give up something to get something. It's tough but I don't want to hear anymore about Nelson Cruz or Dye or some other hack. We will not have the $$ anyway to lock up Timmy, Wilson and Cain longterm with Zito and Rowand still on the team. I'd happily trade Rowand AND eat some $$ for a shorter AND equally shitty contract of Bradley.
Cabrera is by far the best bat anyone has brought up yet this offseason including the top free agents Holliday and Bay. This is an opportunity that needs to be explored as he and Sandoval would make a great 1,2 punch in the middle of the lineup.
If it takes Cain or Bumgarner along with a lot of prospects then I am willing to do it in a heart beat. The trick is going to be figuring out how to keep the payroll down but if we give up Cain then it will at least help after his current deal expires.
In order to fully make this deal work we would need to bite the bullet and let both Bumgarner and Posey step in now and start for us so we aren't spending money on babysitters. I am comfortable rolling the dice with Posey and Whiteside behind the dish and if it isn't working out a few months into the season looking at making a trade for a short term solution but no 2 year deals for 30+ year old average catchers.
Nelson Cruz at the right price wouldn't be horrible. He has pop and could be coming into his own but I wouldn't give up too much at this point especially since we could sign Marlon Byrd who split time with him on occasion last year without having to give anyone up.
So lets say we trade Cain and guys like Noonan, Sosa, Gillespie, etc. for Cabrera. 2010 our pitching staff will be considerably weaker then last year even if Bumgarner is able to step up and pitch well but I think it is a necessary move. We also have Wheeler who should be ready by 2011 and I also agree that Sanchez has the potential to have a nice season and pick up some of the slack left from Cain's departure.
Last year we had the rumor flying around about a Cain for Fielder swap and I would have taken that as well but I would rather have Cabrera (still young, bats from the right side, proven to be one of the best hitters in the game). He is kind of lazy and has had a few off the field issues but then again if I was forced to live in Detroit for half the year I would have some problems too. He and Sandoval should get along famously both being Venezuelan and if you haven't seen the HR hitting contest between the two of them on youtube from last year, do yourself a favor and take a look as they both look like they are having a blast literally.
This would suck...
Lincecum's agents and the MLB Players' Union had discussed the possibility of submitting an arbitration figure of $23MM plus one dollar for the back-to-back Cy Young Award winner. Why the extra dollar? So Lincecum would be making 100 cents more than the highest-paid pitcher in baseball, C.C. Sabathia.
Cabrera's not worth Cain. I know, sounds funny, doesn't it? His contract is large enough (see here) that it substantially depletes his trade value.
Remember, the trade value of a player is how much value he provides above his salary.
The Giants locked Cain down to an extension that keeps his next couple of years very cheap. It makes him a very valuable trade chip. The Tigers, if they try, won't be able to pry even Cain away from the Giants unless they pay off some of Cabrera's salary. That's what happens when you have 6 years left on your contract, and all at more than $20 million.
Here's my wild guess. Starting Pitcher. Brett Myers. Base salary of $3 million with a one-year deal, with no options or triggers for the second year.
Very interesting comments everyone...I wanted to spur discussion and I think it worked.
#1) I think we all agree Cabrera is far more valuable than Holliday and Bay, the two biggest names on the market. The Tigers have an even worse contract than Zito or Vernon Wells, there may only be 1-2 other teams that couls take on Cabrera's contract and the Yankees have Yeixeira, so he is eliminated. The Tigers are going to either pay some of his salary or take on salary. Rowand is a complete bust, but his nearly $41 million at least should be motivation enough for the Giants to talk about Cabrera.
#2) The reason I threw Granderson in the trade is because the Tigers are shopping him, no one can doubt that. With my scenario of the Tigers having to take Rowand, one would assume they would have to play him in center. With one-year of OPrdonez left on their books and a great young player in Raburn in left or Carlos Guillen (another bad Tiger contract), Granderson would be expendable.
#3) Maybe Cain is not a big enough chip to land both Cabrera and Granderson (I dont throw Bumgarner or Posey in to any deal), would Cain, Rowand, Valdez and Sosa for Cabrera be enough? Couple of different prospects instead of Valdez and Sosa, I think we have capable prospects to plug in here. If they need us to swallow Dontrelle's $12 mill as obsessive pointed out, I would do it, but it does likely kill signing Penny. A cheap Brett Myers deal to add in a rightie arm to balance out the potential three lefties in Zito, Sanchez and Dontrelle would be worth pursuing. Willis back home pitching and pitching in the NL and in the 5th spot, may be as good as a Pucetas or Martinez. Also would probably have to go with Posey. With Cabrera in the lineup, Posey could focus on catching and not worry about his offense.
#4) Dont underestimate the potential financial mess the Tigers could be in. The Detroit area is in a fiscal mess and the Tigers will likely loss a lot of revenue. If they can save $85 mill just on Cabrera's contract over the next 6 years, I think they are going to listen. If Boston gets involved, is Bucholz more valuable than Cain? Tough call. But if the Tigers could save another nearly $30 million in Grnaderson, I think they listen. Does a Velez, who could play second, hold more interest than a Guzman in an expanded trade? I still think Fred Lewis as a DH would be interesting to an AL team. Add in Dontrelle's $12 million, that could save the Tiger franchise.
So at the end of the day, if it is only Cabrera that we could add, it massively changes our lineup. Would also allow us to at least stick Torres into the lineup in CF and probably be our lead-off. Bowker could get some starts in left and Velez could play some center.
I think you misunderstood my comment.
Cain is too much to trade for Cabrera.
My update dlineup with just Cabrera added (comments made about the Cabrera-Sandoval relationship is well taken...I think it would be a huge influence on Pablo):
1) Torres - CF
2) F. Sanchez - 2B
3) Pablo - 3B
4) Cabrera - 1B
5) Nate - RF
6) Posey - C
7) Renteria - SS
8) Pitcher
9) Velez - LF (I think Velez batting 9th to start off many innings instead of getting a lot of junk with two outs and the pitcher hitting next next would be better use of his hitting talent.
Bench: Bowker, Ishikawa, Whiteside, Garko and Burriss or Frnadsen.
I get total payroll of $94 mill, so would allow for a $3-$5 mill deal for a Brett Myers...could they splurge for a Penny and push the $100 mill envelope? This again is all based on Timmy making $10 mill for 2010.
The 2011 potential payroll without Granderson/Willis would be around $76.5 million. So maybe they could backend Penny a little and go ahead and give him the three year deal if he would take $6 mill the first year, $9 mill the following 2 years...after that third Penny year, we would just have one year of Zito at $20 mill and a buyout year at $7 mill. All this leaves plenty of money for Lincecum long-term.
One thing is for sure, ownership needs to show us they are willing to push payroll to $100 million to push us to the next level as a playoff contender...
You're dreaming, Pete.
And why should the Tigers' worst financial nightmare be ours?
You just noted that Timmy may get a record amount in arbitration. Even IF (and I doubt it it) the Tigers would make the trade you suggested, that would hancdcuff the payroll for years.
And no, they would not want Rowand.
If you want the likes of true talent like Cabrera and Granderson, you have to give up really talent in kind. That's just the way it is no matter how much the fans like to spin it differently.
You have to look at the contracts too.
Cabrera is going to be paid a boatload over the next few years- more than $20 million each year. That seriously deflates his trade value.
Any lineup iteration that ends up with Velez and/or Torres starting is the wrong answer. PERIOD.
I think you add Cabrera in the lineup, it would be vastly superior to lasyt year's so if you want Bowker in left over Velez or even Fred Lewis and Torres, so be it. It still would be far better of an offensive outfield than with Rowand and the lineup with Cabrera is infinitely better..
"Any lineup iteration that ends up with Velez and/or Torres starting is the wrong answer"
My response to that is the following- any post that makes blanket statements like the above should be accompanied by an actual solution instead of just stating the obvious. Bottom line is next year the lineup is going to have to include options that nobody likes or that shouldn't be but unless you have a solution you really aren't adding any value by saying something everyone is already aware of. It is clear that we have a team full of inferior talent and there are only so many realistic upgrades so unless you have alternatives to what has been proposed you really aren't saying anything that everyone else doesn't already know.
Here here Pato..I am trying to make a credible trade scenario, hence why I dropped Granderson from the deal. But there is no way the Tigers will be able to dump $126 million in salary without taking another bad contract in return. That is just the reality.
Only 3-4 teams could afford to take that Carbera contract and the Giants are one of those. As pointed out, Cain plus Rowand will add up to $18 mill this year, so the deal would only add $2 million to payroll. The Tigers would not get the immediate salary relief in 2010, but will save it in the out years of Cabrera's deal and when Rowand's expires. Plus they then add a bona fide young arm that they could still control for one additional year.
So the way I look at it, it is not implausible that the Tigers would trade Cabrera to the Giants for Cain, Rowand and a couple of prospects (plus do the Tigers want to move him to avoid the whole bad publicity in the drunk arrest and wife thing?). The comment that this would hamstring the Giants financially I think has been answered. Not just for 2010, but Cain will be earning more in 2011 and even more thereafter. Combined with Rowand in 2011 and 2012, the Giants would be actually saving money in 2011 and 2012. So then it is three more years of Cabrera at roughly $21 per year. But after 2013, we can buy out Zito at $7 mill, so in 2014 and 2015 only Cabrera and likely Lincecum would have contracts in the $20 mill range.
So how does this hamstring the Giants financially?
I like the creative thinking of PeterVA, I doubt the giants are going to increase the payroll that much but at least you have presented a sound arguement and some solutions to the current problems at hand. I think a realistic expectation would be trading Cain and possibly some of our "older" prospects like Bowker, Velez, Schierholtz along with some hotter prospects like Noonan and Gillespie (both should be shopped especially Gillespie) for just Cabrera.
Even though Cabrera comes with an extremely expensive price tag, just think of it in terms of what we used to pay Bonds to be the big stick in the lineup. Otherwise we are going to be settling for guys like Uggla or Cruz or short term unattractive solutions like Dye. Of all the scenarios out there I would rather have Cabrera unless the Marlins decide they are willing to trade Hanley in which case I would give up just about anything to have him on the Giants for the next 10 years.
Why do I never read about a Cain+-for-Adrian-Gonzalez scenario?
Because Cain alone is not enough to get A. Gonzalez, the best young hitter who is tied into a cheap contract for the next two years.
You are looking at 3 of your best for Gonzalez. E.g., Cain, Posey, Villalona (if he's not convicted).
The Padres covet a catcher in the worse way. Posey would have to be the centerpiece of that trade.
And the Pads would do it, "never trade within the division" thinking be damned.
Okay you said "Cain +":
Well, the plus would need to include Posey, and probably Villalona.
First of all, although I'm not the one signing the checks, I doubt management will have the money to pay Zito, Lincecum AND Cabrera 20 million-per-year money.
Even if we did have the money, Cabrera is a great hitter but I'd be a little worried about how good of a long-term investment he might be. He has a propensity to gain weight and misbehave. If I'm not mistaken, just in this last year didn't he get busted for both coming to a game drunk, AND slapping around his girlfriend? Maybe the two were related ;)
One of the Tiger's for sale that I think the Giants should consider is Curtis Granderson. Granderson has a shorter, more manageable contract and as a left-handed hitter I'm envisioning him sending a lot of line drives into triples ally and causing havoc. Fan graphs put Granderson at an average 3.6 WAR over the last two seasons, that's pretty good.
Granderson is owed 24 mil over the next 3 years with a club option for a 4th year. That's not small money, but we could put him in LF and bat him........third? Not exactly the clean-up guy we need but still an upgrade.
+1
Bingo with the $$ considerations.
According to mlbtraderumors.com: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/11/odds-ends-gonzalez-damon-halladay.html, the Tigers are not likely to trade away Cabrera just to save salary, although, given a good enough offer.... The point here is that John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press doesn't think that the Tigers are going to react as though they were in a deep financial bind and give him away. Also, rumors about Tim Lincecum's approaching arbitration filing.
One comment to the posts about whether the Giants can afford to pay for Lincecum. The Giants have some contracts that overpay some players, no question. However, when someone like Tim Lincecum comes along, you either figure out a way to keep him, or you raise your hand along with the Pirates to the question, "Who are the Yankees' farm clubs?" He has to be signed. The future of the Giants as a serious contender hinges on it.
I was thinking about it today and although what I am about to type will sound completely rediculous and may get me permanently banned from blogging here, I think the giants should seriously explore trading Lincecum. What the hell am I thinking right? It is clear that the giants can't keep both Cain and Lincecum and still upgrade the offense. It is also clear that Lincecum is content to play for a team that will never have the offense to get him to the playoffs as long as he is paid like CC and Zito. We love him and couldn't imagine being without him but a buddy of mine once asked me the question, would you give up Lincecum if it meant winning a world series and my answer without hesitation was yes.
Would trading Lincecum mean the giants would win a world series, probably not. The point is though that there is no way this team is even going to make the playoffs if they have to pay him upwards of 20 million along with Zito over the next 4 years. I along with Sabean am trying to figure out how they are going to sign anyone this offseason after Timmy wins arbitration and gets his 23 million.
The Halladay rumors are starting to warm up once again and the bounty the Jays are going to get for him is nothing compared to what the Giants could get for Timmy. This may well be many Giants fans worst nightmare but my worst nightmare is having to put up with an offense that makes every pitcher they face look like Timmy. It isn't going to get better, it will get worse and at the cost of keeping our beloved Timmy and not so beloved Zito.
I think everyone should at least consider the idea and it is a big pill to swallow but we would actually be ok with Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Bumgarner, and in a year or two Wheeler and whoever the top prospects we would get for Timmy all in the mix. I can't watch another 4 years of piss poor offense and what good is Timmy if he loses 2 to 1 ball games every other outing? We need offense and in order to get it we need to find payroll flexibility and with Timmy it will never happen.
If the Giants can pay big bucks for other teams' garbage (i.e., Aaron Rowand) and mediocrities (Barry Zito), they can pay Tim Lincecum.
Pato, in a sense, I may prefer keeping Lincecum over getting a World Series becuase I think I would be completely bitter if we ever traded Timmy, especially at the start of his career. And Zito is done in four years, I can wait four years for a World Series run if Timmy is making $20 million a year.
One thing I think the Giants should do is get on their knees and beg Tim to take $60 mill for 5 years so they can make a serious playoff run. I would also make it quite obvious to Timmy that if he gets the huge arb award, there then can be no way they can keep Cain (his friendship for Cain should hopefully bring Tim and his agent down to earth). Also it would eliminate any hope of bringing Penny back, which it seemed he hit it off with Tim and would be obvious they need that one experienced arm to solidify their rotation.
Does Tim want to make $20 mill plus a year and be on a perennial 70-80 win team for the next four years?
My other option that I threw around last off-season is to threaten Zito to force his contract to be renegotiated to free up more money over the next 2-3 years by pushing his current contract out by a couple of additional years...if he/his agent says no, I then threaten to let the public knwo that Zito is to blame for not letting them go after a legit cleanup hitting free agent...
I would hate to lose Timmy, he is a once in a lifetime type of pitcher and everyone is crazy about him but this team isn't going anywhere with him right now. I hope he signs a long term deal and it doesn't have to be this year but by putting off signing long term he would also be putting off winning next year.
Sometimes it is hard to let go of someone that has the star power of a Tim Lincecum but then again how often do we have a trade chip this big to shop around? If he could net us 5 top level prospects and 3 of the 5 ended up being big impact players then is it worth it? Probably not still but the more I read the more I just don't see this team getting the help it needs to succeed next season.
None of the prospects are ready to make an impact next year offensively and probably none of the pitchers either including Bumgarner will be able to contribute. If not Lincecum then what about Posey or Bumgarner or Wheeler? Cain does make sense but then again he is close to being as good a pitcher as Timmy and is around half the price. Something has to give this offseason or else get ready for the worst offense in history 2.0.
I don't agree with the last sentence.
Randy Winn will be gone.
Freddy Sanchez will replace horrible hitting at 2B.
Buster Posey is a better hitter than Bengie Molina.
The offense is going to be better. The question is by how much, and if we can get players to improve it by even more than those three moves will.
Trading Lincecum isn't necessary.
Also, the fan base would go berserk.
Randy Winn being gone is a plus but there is still no guarentee that his replacements (Nate and Bowk) will produce next year. Freddy Sanchez is definitely an upgrade but only if he can stay healthy, dont forget that he played in less then half the games last year after being acquired, is on the downside of his career, and batted something like .275. Posey will eventually be better then Bengie but next year is a little soon to expect him to hit 20+ HR's and 80 rbi's like Bengie did last year.
You are right about the fan base going berserk if we traded Timmy but they may go berserk anyway if this team cant score more then 2 runs per game. If Timmy has a full season like his last few months last year where he got no run support and lost several close low scoring games then get ready for some pissed off fans.
"Posey will eventually be better then Bengie but next year is a little soon to expect him to hit 20+ HR's and 80 rbi's like Bengie did last year."
Yeah, so? Posey will still be a better hitter.
Home runs and RBI are not the be-all and end-all of statistical analysis; in fact, RBI are misleading.
Last year Bengie was below average as a hitter.
So just to give an idea of what it would take for a Timmy trade, how about the following:
Clay Bucholtz, Lars Anderson, Jacoby Ellsbury, and a few more prospect pitchers for Timmy. Get a stud leadoff hitter who would fit perfect in AT&T and Bucholtz who would start right away probably as the 3rd or 4th man in the rotation. Lars is a year or two away from being a ligit power hitter at 1B. The Sox also have a few other stud young pitchers that could be thrown in to the mix. Would this make the giants better next year? I think it might...