The snow is snowin', trade winds are blowin'....
It's finally time. Hot Stove Time. Thank you, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee, for making the World Series remotely interesting. Otherwise, yawn. In the post-game celebrations, Mark Teixeira thanked God for steering him toward New York. I know Scott Boras is all powerful, but come on, Mark, isn't that a bit strong?
Speaking of His Divine Boras, it'll be shocking if Matt Holliday doesn't get far north of $100 M, and I won't be surprised if the Yankees are the top bidders. Remember all those empty luxury box seats this spring at the new Stadium? Well, just like the Yankees, Wall Street is back, baby, while Main Street and the Royals and Pirates are still stuck in subprime foreclosure hell. (Though new Pittsburgh acquisition Aki Iwamura is thinking playoffs next year. Link tip from MLB Trade Rumors.)
And with their 27th World Series banner flying over their new sparkly house, I don't imagine those seats will be hard to fill next year. Translation: More boatloads of cash for the Yanks to spend. If their key players stay healthy, there's no reason they can't win a few more Series in the next five years. Like I said: Yawn.
Meanwhile the Giants need to figure out how to squeeze out more runs without losing the mojo of their pitching staff. Everyone assumes a trade of Jonathan Sanchez is inevitable, but we thought that last winter, too, and despite the flotation of names like Jorge Cantu, Hank Blalock and Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Sabean proved remarkably disciplined (or scared). One could argue he lost that discipline with the Garko and F. Sanchez trades this summer and got burned, which means he might fall back upon his free-agent-signin' ways this winter.
And his track record on that front is not good. Or is it? It's easy to highlight the big-ticket disappointments (Zito, Rowand, Renteria), but Sabean has also gotten good value from mid-level or scrap-heap signings like Winn, Vizquel, Molina, Uribe, and Medders. Do they balance out the busts? Using Fangraphs' dollar-value measurement it seems SF paid about $71 million to free agents in 2009 (players they signed in this or previous years) and got performances worth $59 million. You can go back and calculate other recent years, but I suspect they won't be much better.
Before we pass ultimate judgment on Sabes's free-agent work, however, we have to compare him to his peers. What's the league average for dollar-in/dollar-out value? Do most GMs break even? Or do spectacular free-agent failures (Gary Matthews Jr., Juan Pierre, Carl Pavano, Julio Lugo, to name a few) skew the numbers badly for most teams? The crack research department of tiny people living in my desk are on assignment, so if you want to jump on this puzzle, go for it.
