The snow is snowin', trade winds are blowin'....
It's finally time. Hot Stove Time. Thank you, Chase Utley and Cliff Lee, for making the World Series remotely interesting. Otherwise, yawn. In the post-game celebrations, Mark Teixeira thanked God for steering him toward New York. I know Scott Boras is all powerful, but come on, Mark, isn't that a bit strong?
Speaking of His Divine Boras, it'll be shocking if Matt Holliday doesn't get far north of $100 M, and I won't be surprised if the Yankees are the top bidders. Remember all those empty luxury box seats this spring at the new Stadium? Well, just like the Yankees, Wall Street is back, baby, while Main Street and the Royals and Pirates are still stuck in subprime foreclosure hell. (Though new Pittsburgh acquisition Aki Iwamura is thinking playoffs next year. Link tip from MLB Trade Rumors.)
And with their 27th World Series banner flying over their new sparkly house, I don't imagine those seats will be hard to fill next year. Translation: More boatloads of cash for the Yanks to spend. If their key players stay healthy, there's no reason they can't win a few more Series in the next five years. Like I said: Yawn.
Meanwhile the Giants need to figure out how to squeeze out more runs without losing the mojo of their pitching staff. Everyone assumes a trade of Jonathan Sanchez is inevitable, but we thought that last winter, too, and despite the flotation of names like Jorge Cantu, Hank Blalock and Edwin Encarnacion, Brian Sabean proved remarkably disciplined (or scared). One could argue he lost that discipline with the Garko and F. Sanchez trades this summer and got burned, which means he might fall back upon his free-agent-signin' ways this winter.
And his track record on that front is not good. Or is it? It's easy to highlight the big-ticket disappointments (Zito, Rowand, Renteria), but Sabean has also gotten good value from mid-level or scrap-heap signings like Winn, Vizquel, Molina, Uribe, and Medders. Do they balance out the busts? Using Fangraphs' dollar-value measurement it seems SF paid about $71 million to free agents in 2009 (players they signed in this or previous years) and got performances worth $59 million. You can go back and calculate other recent years, but I suspect they won't be much better.
Before we pass ultimate judgment on Sabes's free-agent work, however, we have to compare him to his peers. What's the league average for dollar-in/dollar-out value? Do most GMs break even? Or do spectacular free-agent failures (Gary Matthews Jr., Juan Pierre, Carl Pavano, Julio Lugo, to name a few) skew the numbers badly for most teams? The crack research department of tiny people living in my desk are on assignment, so if you want to jump on this puzzle, go for it.
Lefty, there is no way Jason Bay is coming to a Dock by Our Bay...mark my words, Jermaine Dye will be Sabean's great acquisition. Abreau # from last year, $5 million with incentives. Molina will be back, let's hope for just one year at no more than $6 mill. I am betting Uribe is gone. But the one player I want is Figgins...can $10 mill for 3 years land him?
Just heard Lincecum was cited for marijuana possession. Could that effect Cy Young votes?
That would explain why he's so laid back and easy going most of the time.
But if that is true, shouldn't the munchies add to his frame?
votes had already been cast Joey...
Well, technically Bonds was a free agent signing, so I suspect that Sabean would look pretty good in those years where he was producing big time.
I don't see Dye coming our way, he is a horrible fielder for years, and Sabean don't really go for those types, though Renteria has been slightly below average for years too. Bay too.
I like Figgins too, and he would be my best bet for who the Giants land this off-season for improving the lineup. He was also almost worth a win on defense at 3B too, according to Fielding Bible, in 2008.
Kei Igawa, Eric Brynes (not free agent, but would have been), Jason Schmidt (who was great for the Giants, not so much for the Dodgers), Loaiza, I think some would argue that Adrian Beltre belongs on this list, Albert Belle certainly, Hampton and that other guy for Colorado, Darren Dreifort (not free agent but could have been) and if you added up all the Yankees free agent acquisitions, I don't see how they can add up to above their payroll in any season.
I would also add that UZR does not capture a lot of the catcher's worth on defense, so perhaps $1-3M of that $12M difference is due to that, if he is as good on defense as some say he is.
The question is whether Dye can still hit.
As Krukow noted, if a player can hit, a team will find him a place in the line-up, poor fielder and all.
Unless, of course, if he is as lost in mental space as Fred Lewis was in '09.
If we got Dye, I doubt that his OPS would be any better than Winn's during his time with the Giants, and I would bet that it would be lower.
Dye has benefited from a hitter's park as his road numbers are roughly around .785 OPS over the past three seasons, and dropping each season.
Hitting in SF would drop his home contribution, while his road has been slipping. That is not above average while he defense is already below average, so I don't see the Giants acquiring him.
Plus RF is where Schierholtz and Bowker could compete to play, I think LF is where SF might accept some drop in defense to accommodate an above average hitter.
Dye, in any case, is no longer an above average hitter, hasn't been the past three seasons.
I hate 2 always break the Timmy news but ...Busted, pot, Vancouver WA
Rumor has that he was pulled over, cop smelled pot & found a pipe & 3.3 grams???he tokes Everyday.
sent from iPhone
http://columbian.com/article/20091105/NEWS02/711069987/-1/news
Dude's just keeping it mellow - no biggie.
How about Adrian Beltre? Great defense, has some pop, has done well in the NL west before, would allow Pablo to play 1B. Had a down year this year, so he is due for a bounce and would come a little more cheaply.
read in Trade Rumors that Texas has interest in Dye, so be it. I would not pay Dye more than $5 mill for one year. Early word was that Boston only offered Bay 4 years at $15 mill per. SO it is conceivable the Giants could come in and add one more year, but I get that Rowand knot in my stomach about a sure thing coming here.
Plus, every agent knows that to drive the price up for their players, start negotiating with Sabean and you will soon have the salry you want to leverage with the team your player really wants to play for...ask Carlos Lee, Soriano, Manny...
Figgins is still my must add...forget about Beltre. Trade J. Sanchez for Cuddyer is my most recent trade proposal. Twins could really use another arm in their rotation and thye have milked us for pitching for great success. Plus Twins are always looking at saving money. Money saved from Cuddyer could then be used to help keep Mauer...plus Cuddyer has only one more guaranteed year in his contract for a fairly reasonable $8.5 mill. I will throw in Bowker or Fred Lewis to sweeten the pot...
The only kind of FAs the Giants should sign should be for one year and $5 mil.
My worst nightmare: Jason Bay for 5 years. Another millstone that will cause us to lose Cain via a trade and Timmy to free agency.
Dye would be a negative acquisition so if he came here with ten mil in his suitcase for us, I would go for it, otherwise, forget it.
Figgins will be 32 next year coming off a career year. His on-base pct. is sure to regress and he never had power. He led the league in caught stealing last year to offset 47 steals. He’ll be getting slower. I wouldn’t want him unless in the middle of the infield which he won’t be. Sanchez will be more valuable at 2nd than Figgins would be at third.
Beltre is only marginally better than Pedro Feliz. Remember him? They are very close to being the same player. I’d pass on him.
What I would do, I’d go after Zimmerman, the 3rd baseman of the Nats. I’d offer Cane, Garko and maybe Rohlinger. Then I’d sign Nick Johnson for 1st base. Sandoval would go to catch, where he belongs. With all the money left (?) I’d sign Abreu for left field.
My lineup would look like this:
Rowand
Abreu
Johnson
Sandoval
Zimmerman
Bowker
Sanchez
Renteria
That’s more than 100 runs better than this past year.
J. Sanchez and Bowker would be on my untouchable list. They could be a couple of studs. Maybe not, but let’s find out.
Abreu re-signed with the Angels and Zimmerman is not on the market. Teams just don't trade their young cornerstones. Rowand at leadoff??? Next.
Exactly. Mystifying why name that aren't available keep coming up.
Boof is dead on, teh entire National franchise is based on Zimmerman. H eis the only player that people come to see..he is not going anywhere probably for a decade at least...
besides the obvious comment already made about Abreau already signing, where the hell is Schierholtz in your lineup?
Sanchez and Bowker are your untouchables and Cain isn't one? That's loony, dude.
Reply fail. Meant for Walter Guest.
Okay serious people, take a deep breath. You got me on the Abreu thing. I didn’t see he had resigned. But this is the hot stove league. For you neophytes that means rosterbation to your hearts content, sometimes for the look of a potent lineup for a change.
Zimmerman might be available if he price is right. The three I mentioned would be an excellent fit for the Nats; a young ace pitcher, an established 1st baseman and a 3rd base prospect. If I were the Nats I wouldn’t do it, but it makes sense. Rowand hit leadoff for a third of last season (209 PAs) and did better by far than anyone else. (Damn, I hate having to teach lazy students.)
Schierholtz had an OBP of .302 this season in over 300 PAs. The team OBP (pitchers included) was .309. He was actually pulling the average down. Who, in their right mind, would continue to want to see that guy in the regular lineup? Oh yeah, that guy above.
Cane is eminently tradable. He is at the height of his trade value right now. He is the best chip in front of Sabean. The Giants would have decent pitching without him and he could bring in the hitter they so desperately need. Why should he be untouchable? J. Sanchez and Bowker, on the other hand, could be stars. Maybe not, but they are the type of players you could regret trading for the rest of your life. Maybe not, but I wouldn’t risk trading them.
That’s all for today, now do your homework.
"Cane is eminently trade-able. He is at the height of his trade value right now."
So is Tim Lincecum, and so is Pablo Sandoval. Why anyone wants to rationalize a trade of our best players with the "trade value" argument is beyond me. Generally, pitchers are a more valuable commodity than hitters. That is why you have 40 year old lefties in short relief that still have a job.
The Nats are a good match with the Giants because they have a bunch of hitting and lack pitching, but that means they might be willing to trade for minor league pitching talent (of which we have plenty) in hopes they mature into ML talent. They are young, they can trade for the future (which is approaching more rapidly for the Giants).
I don't know why the Rox released Torrealba. As I remember, he was pissed at the Giants for passing on him as the starting catcher. I wouldn't hold out any hope of him coming here to mentor Posey.
If I heard that someone on the giants got busted smokin grass I would have immediately assumed it was Freddy Lewis smokin in left field during games but then again when I see the squinty eyes and shit eatin grin on Timmy's face in post game interviews, it makes a lot of sense! Bottom line is that smokin grass is about as bad for you as drinking coffee and if that is how Timmy likes to unwind then I have no problem with it. Maybe they can open up a cannibis club at AT&T and a pot smoking section out in the bleachers as a tribute...
As far as free agent signings, none of the options listed above are attractive and they all are high risk. Bay definitely could turn into another Rowand as he didn't exactly light it up in Pittsburgh all those years and only started hitting once he got to Boston before pooping the bed in the playoffs. Dye contrary to what everyone is saying is actually a decent hitter, not sure why he is getting ripped here when the guy hits 30 HR's and 100 RBI's every year. He is however old and had a bad second half but definitely fits the profile of a future Sabean acquisition (Sabes coveted him several years ago and much like Dave Roberts, may jump all over the opportunity to sign him now).
Chone Figgs is intriguing but again has tons of potential to bust. I see him kinda the way I look at Juan Pierre, best case scenario he gets on base a lot and sets the table for the least potent middle of the order in baseball but more then likely his numbers will decline and we would be paying top dollar for a guy whose best years are behind him.
Adrian Beltre used steroids to get his huge contract in Seattle and then turned into a complete bust. We dont want his garbage so please, don't ever mention his name again.
Bottom line is that this offseason is thin on free agents. I would almost feel better about a low risk high reward option like Blalock or Derosa that could be signed to a short term deal for a reasonable amount and has the flexibility to play multiple positions. The last thing we need are more outfielders so if we cant get a stud first or third basemen then why waste money on another risky outfielder?
I knew you were a fucking Idiot and now you proved it.Go suck on your fucking Bong you loser!
Pato, I thoroughly agree with your posting except for Figgins. Good news, I see he is listed as Type B. If you or Lefty could expand on what that means, I would appreicate it, but I expect that will constrain his price to a degree.
It is obvious we dont have a legit cleanup hitter, but we also do not have a legit leadoff hitter. If we are going to go into this season with Dye or another mid-level cleanup hitter, I think setting the table with a legit leadoff, Velez to me does not fit the bill, will have a tremendous affect on the lineup.
A speedy leadoff hitter with legit steal potential with F. Sanchez hitting behind could be a nice jump start to our offense at the beginning of every game. Will also force pitchers to throw more strikes to Pablo, especially if he lays off more pitches outside the strike zone.
Twins have to decide on a 2011 option for Cuddyer by Monday, if they dont pick it up, it may be a sign they want to reserve their money for Mauer and may be willing to entertain trade offers. J. Sanchez and Bowker/F. Lewis for Cuddyer? I like it!!!
Lineup:
1) Figgins - 3B
2) F. Sanchez - 2B
3) Pablo - 1B
4) Cuddyer - LF
5) Schierholtz - RF
6) Molina - C
7) Rowand - RF
8) Renteria - SS
I would see Velez getting 4-5 starts a week or so and Torres a couple. For Velez, couple starts in left, couple in right and maybe 1-2 at second. Torres starts 2 games a week in center over Rowand. Rowand should start no more than 2/3s of the games in center. I would get Ishi a couple starts a week as well and maybe Figgins ciould start a game or two at second instead of Velez.
Can we get Figgins for $8 mill for 4 years? This lineup will not be murderers row, bbut we dont need one with our pitching staff. If we trade J. Sanchez, we need to add Brad Penny, $8 mill after incentives a year for two years seems reasonable to me.
With all these moves I have a net payroll of $98 million, plus I have Lincecum getting bumped to $6 mill (I offer him a 5 year deal now with the pot bust, $6 mill for 2010, $8 mill for 2011, $10 mill for 2012, $12 mill for 2013 - no Rowand, $14 mill in 2014 - no Zito and his first free agent year) and Brian Wilson at $4 mill.
Ownership owess us to go ahead and take payroll to $100 mill threshold. If the year does not pan out, no Molina, no Renteria and no Cuddyer option for 2011. That puts almost $24 million back in the pot.
I was almost with you....until I saw the name Molina. The Giants should be bringing him back under any circumstances. Try again.....without Molina......
That should say " should NOT be bringing Molina back under any circumstances"
I dont disagree at all on Molina, I just predict that they will bring him back. I dont think Posey is ready and now Torrealbla may be on the market...
Type B means if they offer him arbitration, and another team signs him, the Angels get a sandwich pick. It doesn't hurt the team that signs him, so it will not depress Figgins' cost.
The Twins are deeper than we are in the rotation and have no serious need of Sanchez- guys like Anthony Swarzak have higher upside anyways. And I have no expectation of Sabean being able to negotiate a trade with the Twins brass that ends up turning out well for us.
thanks and you are likely right with Sabes...
I like your thinking on this one PeteVA. I also agree that the payroll needs to increase no matter what and if we could upgrade leadoff then that is better then nothing. I am still a little hesitant on Chone though and at 8 mil a year it would be costly if he didnt pan out. I imagine his price tag will be right around there and the fact that he has some position flexibility is nice as well. Seems like there is a lot of early action with a few trades today so hopefully we start hearing rumors and get an idea of what is going to happen in the next week or two.
Figgins will be overpaid. If the Giants sign him, it will be a bad contract for us.
Yes. Better to trade for Bradley (2 years) or sign Dye for one.
If we traded for Bradley, I would be very tempted to abstain from rooting for my beloved Giants..he is a complete ass...
So was Jeff Kent.
....and Barry Bonds also.
Wonder what it would take for us to get the Nats Willingham for our left field? There would be our cleanup guy..
Lefty, it's easy to say they'll win for five more years, but not without replacing one of the best closers in history, a great catcher, and one of the best hitting ss in baseball. All the money in the world can't invent those things, and some of them (SS) have been pretty tough to come by at any price in the past few years. Renteria, Henry Blanco, and JJ Putz won't exactly lead them to a threepeat, even if Rivera/Jeter/Posada come back at relatively full strength.
Hey, anybody read any Brad Penny updates? When I looked online I found a TMZ story about some reality "star" he was hooking up with, but nothing about whether he and the Giants are interested in each other for 2010. I thought he was a nice fit, and another pitcher who should be able to post good numbers at home.