When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

11.20.2009
LinCYcum

Awesome, awesome, awesome. Not only was Tim Lincecum's second straight Cy a huge pick-me-up for Giants fans, it was a big vindication for people who have let go of the hidebound notion that wins and losses in a pitcher's record is a leading indicator of talent. It can be, but it doesn't have to be.

As you all probably know, Lincecum won 15 games, and his two main competitors Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright of the Cardinals won 17and 19, respectively. The voters saw through Wainwright's win total, boosted by generous run support, and rightly had a hard time deciding between Carpenter and Lincecum. They were close in many respects.

But the closeness also brought out the bias toward W-L that some writers still harbor. I have a lot of respect for Andy Baggarly, but his blog post Thursday rankled me. He would have voted Carpenter-Lincecum 1-2 if he had had a BBWAA vote:

I do think wins are important, though. You can't completely discard them. Some pitchers just know how to win, whether it's 6-5 or 2-1. That's just as much a skill as anything else. There is a human element to this game that doesn't fit in any computer simulation. There's no stat to measure fortitude. But it's an important component in a performance-driven industry. There's a reason teams spend a lot of time assessing makeup and personality when they research draftees and potential free-agent signings. It matters. Just ask Matt Cain.
I don't know, and I will never know, how you would prefer a pitcher who "knows how to win" by giving up five runs in five innings when his team scores six to a pitcher who "pitches just well enough to lose" (i.e., "a loser") by giving up two runs in eight innings when his team only scores one. It makes absolutely no sense, and that's essentially Baggs's argument.

Granted, he acknowledges a bit earlier that wins "often are misleading" -- very true -- because they put responsibility on a pitcher for "things out of his control." Also true. But when the chips are down -- when Baggs can't decide between Lincecum and Carpenter -- he lets W-L record tip the scale.

I'm not saying Tim Lincecum doesn't have the fortitude to be a big-game pitcher. But I do believe he wasn't at his best in the second half. He didn't get consistent run support. He played for an inferior team, despite its 88 wins. And yes, his ERA demonstrates that he certainly pitched well overall. But at the end of the day, wins and losses are what matters. And a Cy Young Award winner doesn't allow his team, a contending team, to go 7-7 in his starts after the All-Star break.
What? Did Baggs actually look at Timmy's post-ASG game log? Fourteen starts, three of which could be assessed as mediocre or worse. Of the rest, he went at least 7 innings every time, and gave up zero earned runs three times, one earned run twice, two earned runs five times, and three earned runs once.

I'll allow that Carpenter could have been better than Lincecum down the stretch. Carpenter is an impressive, polished, dominating pitcher, and I am open-minded to the possibility that a non-strikeout artist like Carpenter can be as good as a guy who dominates with Ks. It's not as easy, because the pitch-to-contact guy needs great D and more luck so those bleeders and bloopers don't fall in; on the other hand the strikeout guy needs to learn to keep his pitch counts down and go deep into games.

But Baggs isn't making an argument for Carpenter's slight edge of sublimity. He's saying it's Lincecum's fault the Giants didn't win more of his starts, as if somehow he could have willed Aaron Rowand not to suck in the second half. Or Randy Winn to hit more than the occasional single. Or Ryan Garko to find his American League mojo.

Sorry, this has been rant-against-the-beat-writer week for me, but when these guys, God bless 'em, give credence to notions that make no sense, I can't sit still.

Let's move on. Even before the second Cy award, Tim was going to get bankalicious, probably breaking the first-time arbitration record for pitchers. Now there's no doubt, because the award itself is a market-fixing device. It's a codification of perceived value. His agent will say, Tim isn't just statistically the best pitcher in the National League the past two years, he's officially the best. Perhaps the judge will find that superfluous, perhaps not. 

I'd love to see Lincecum sign long-term, but I don't think it will happen unless the Giants can move a big contract. And which one would that be? Uh, yeah.



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From Andrew Baggarly:

"He didn't get consistent run support."

Yes, because being able to get consistent run support is one of the key functions of a pitcher. If Lincecum couldn't manage to muster consistent run support out of one of the worst offenses in baseball it obviously follows that he just isn't as good as we think.

What's best is that Baggs basically says that a pitcher needs fortitude to help him win games and then cites Matt Cain as his example. The same Matt Cain who used his fortitude to win 30 games over the 2007 and 2008 seasons. Wait a second... He lost 30 games? But he's a good pitcher, pitched really well and he has fortitude (Just ask Baggs), how can this be?

OK - a marketing idea to celebrate Timmeh. Skip the K-zone promotion this year, and make it the J-zone promotion. Give dollars off for flashing a Prop 215 medical cannabis card. Rake in $$$ from concessions in the vicinity of J-zone seating.

Genius!!

And splash hits take on a new meaning!

I have my feet in both camps.

For the fortitude, all I can say is anyone who followed the battles between Stewart and Clemens when they were at their best against each other, and not see that Stewart had the fortitude to beat Clemens, even though Clemens was arguably better (and offensively, the teams were pretty matched, and, if anything, Boston had the better offense), then I don't know what baseball you were watching then.

But Lincecum's controllable numbers are excellent, and very comparable with Carpenter's, if not better, and better than Wainwright's. I think I would have been OK with either Lincecum or Carpenter as the Cy Young winner.

Except that Carpenter missed 4-5 starts this season. That is where I don't buy that Carpenter is better than Lincecum.

Lincecum will bank, but I don't think that it will reach arbitration, the Giants typically meets the player half way and split the difference between their offer and the players offer. But if the Giants are stupid and offer too little, like they did with AJP, then Lincecum will win a redonkulous award and ruin arbitration for us and him going forward.

A couple of days ago I made a comment that columnists can have a bad day. I don't think that's the case here - I agree with Lefty 100%. Bagg's argument makes no sense. Back when Zito was signed, and Tim wasn't even on the team, I fretted that other pitchers might want more money for superior performances. We damn well better sign Tim, and if it costs too much, that is a problem of Sabean's (and the Giant's) making.

Giants, give the money to one of our own instead of coveting somebody else's leftovers.

The two guys whose combined offensive abilities would dramatically improve offense are Uggla and Nick Johnson.

Tender Garko. He's a good hitter despite what people who never watch AL games say.

Give Schierholtz RF.

Stop the Velez-Torres delusions. These guys are utility players, period.

Give Ryan Rohlinger and Kevin Frandsen a legit shot at Uribe's job, and forget about resigning him. You JUST KNOW Bochy will find a way to start him everyday.

What? Without Randy Winn and his beloved Begnie, Uribe's Bochy next fling.

Sounds like you have it all figured out. So who leads off again, FLew? Also, who do we give up for Uggla and who do we have to replace Nick J when he gets injured in the second week of the season and Garko still hasn't figured out NL pitching? Other then that I think you have put together a swell lineup that should propel this team to another 3rd place finish!

Pato, are you talking to me or Lefty?

Garko isn't in the majors for his defense, in case you haven't noticed. He can hit, and he was figuring out the NL pitchers but Botchit would let him play back to back games. I Think that's a weak argument against signing N.Johnson, whose OBP would be a big lift to the offense.

Who do we give for Uggla? Well, the Marlins are greedy and feel they have to rape the other team. But the longer they wait to trade Uggla, the less they'll get. For maximum return, they should have traded him last year. Now he has one less year of team control before free agency.

Ergo, they are not getting a Posey or Bumgarner even if they, in their gluttonous greed, think that if F. Sanchez was worth T. Alderson, then they deserve Bumgarner. Not going to happen.

A player that does have value (other than Giants fans who pine for Kevin Frandsen) is Emmanuel Burriss, our sandwich pick in 2006. I imagine they would want Dan Runzler or Sergio Romo in that package. Uggla will be expensive, mind you.

Now as for your lead-off hitter argument, is this really a as big of a concern as lacking a 4 &5 place hitter? Or are you making this argument because you really, really want Velez and Torres to lead off?

And I hate to break it to you, but Fred Lewis, demented defender that he is, is a much better hitter than Andres Torres and Eugenio Velez. It's pretty obvious if one watches the games.

Re. the importance of pitching wins, Grant McChronic passes along this link.

Another chapter in the sportswriting handbook "exaggerate the truth to make a point." While the single voter who put Vasquez ahead of Carpenter was dumb, the majority of fans and writers seem to agree that the decision between Carpenter, Wainwright, and Timmah was a tough call, and any one of them could have won it this year. The "wins aren't important?" argument was old in 1973 when we were making it on behalf of Ron Bryant (24-12 but lost the Cy Young to Tom Seaver who had "only" 19 wins), and it's older now. I'm happy TLin got the nod, but as long as one of the big 3 won it, there's really no story here.

Keith Law wasn't dumb with his ballot.

Lincecum, Vasquez, Wainwright is a reasonable one.

It's the voters who gave Wainwright all those 1st-place votes simply because of wins when he wasn't even in the top two of best pitchers who were the real idiots.

And if you remove defense as well as run support from the equation, Vasquez beats Carpenter, too.

Lincecum smokes them all, of course. Strikeouts are extremely valuable, because you don't give the batter a chance to get a break on a ball in play. And he had the most strikeouts, easily (Vasquez was 2nd with 23 fewer).

So in his voting Keith Law was out of the mainstream, but in a good way.

2 or 3 months ago, Joe Posnanski debunked what he said he was hearing on the MLB Network about Jack Morris: That his high career ERA (3.90) is OK because "he pitched to the score." Which means, apparently, that Morris would allow just a run if his team scored two but let 5 runs in if his team was hitting that day. Posnanski looked at Morris's game logs and called BS on the whole thing.

I was reminded of this by the above decon of what Baggs wrote. It's disappointing to see him fall into this mindless cliche about "guys who know how to win," and worse, to say that Timmy came up short in "fortitude" in the second half. I didn't get around to commenting on the Chris Haft thing-- and now there's this, which seems worse because 1) It's not just a predictable sneer at a modern stat (like UZR), it's illogical; 2) It's Baggs, who of the 3 Giants beat writers seems like the guy most open to understanding the new knowledge informing how performance is evaluated.

Replying to DProf in case the reply option fails:

Yeah, I was actually talking to you because I still can't get my mind around how you think that after last year Fred is somehow going to pull his weight. Any confidence he had from 2008 went right out the window last year so other then his OBP which is ok, he just plain sucks.

I also watch the games and pretty much everything I say in these posts is based on what I see, not so much on stats other then the occasional RBI or HR reference. What I saw with Velez was improvement and what I saw with Torres was nothing spectacular other then the fact that I would rather have him in CF then Rowand.

Now, you reference the 4 and 5 spots in the lineup and the fact that those are 2 spots that need upgrades before anything else. I agree but I also think we can get those upgrades through free agency without the risk of Sabes getting bent over in a trade for someone like Uggla who really isn't any better then say DeRosa or Blalock. His defense is far worse and his average is pretty bad too. I haven't seen him play enough to be able to confirm this but my guess is that he rakes bad pitching and probably doesn't come through with a lot of clutch hits with the game on the line. Why give up a prospect or two for a guy that doesn't fill a position we need defensively when we could sign a similar player in free agency?

Honestly I hope you are right about Fred and I hope he gets his chance to bounce back. I also like some of the skills that Velez brings to the table but I can admit that I may be a little overly optimistic with him. Torres is what he is which is garbage but at least he hustles out there, kinda reminds me of FP when he was all roided up.

Try this one on for size, Sabean signs Dye to play RF and Blalock to play CI and there you have your 4 and 5 hitters. Not ideal by any means but you would have to say it would be an upgrade over last years 4 and 5 hitters. Knowing Sabean you can't be surprised if he goes after Dye. I like Blalocks upside even though he goes through long dry spells and can't hit lefties.

"Uggla who really isn't any better then say DeRosa or Blalock"

Uggla has hit over 30 home runs in each of his last three seasons. DeRosa has never hit more than 23 and Blalock his 30 home runs once, back in 2004. Furthermore, Blalock has played his entire career at home in the bandbox at Arlington. Uggla is much better than either of these two guys: and a low average doesn't matter much if you can get your OBP up above .340, which Uggla has done consistently in his career.

This shouldn't even be an argument.

Do not want Dye.

Dye is a DH at this stage in his career. I want to have somebody who can actually get to the ball in catch it in LF, with our pitchers. If we sign him, our pitching will regress, just from putting a horrible defensive outfielder in LF every day. He hits at the plate, and gives it all back in the field.

I'd rather play Bowker and use the money on somebody who's good.

I'd say the first priorities are two hitters to complement Sandoval, and acquiring a 5th starter.

There are plenty of options and there will be more after teams non-tender players.

The thing we as fans should not settle for is the Bochy love affair with a couple of utility veterans as our lead-off platoon.

The point about Freddy Lewis is not that he should start, but that even with all of his defects he is much, much better than Velez-Torres combined.

We have to remember that the lead-off man only leads off at the beginning of the game. Although this is ludicrously obvious, it clarifies the need for having players up and down the line-up who can get on base.

For better or worse, Lewis does get on base and so does (a player I hope we get) Nick Johnson. In our park, moreover, doubles are more significant than HRs.

That's been my main problem with Ishikawa, who hits too few doubles and strikes out way too much.

However, LF is one are where we can get an upgrade, and if that means Freddy is the odd man out, so be it.

You puzzle me Dregarx, you say you don't want Dye because of his defense but are willing to give up prospects for Uggla who is well known to be defensively challenged. I would say that 3rd and 2nd base are much more important defensively then RF. Dye's power numbers are actually pretty comparable to Uggla as well so not sure why you think one is worthwhile and the other isn't especially knowing the fact that Uggla would probably deplete us of at least 2 quality prospects.

That's OK, I puzzle me too.

Dye is a lot older than Uggla. That's a plus in Uggla's favor. Outfield defense is quite valuable actually, and if Uggla is acquired I envision him as a 1B, where defense is much less important.

I've not decided whether trading for Uggla or signing Johnson is a better option, so I won't comment on Uggla.

What I will say is I don't think you know just how bad Dye is in the field. It's not just, oh, he's a liability in the field- he's pretty much one of the worst 5 players in all of baseball when it comes to defense, Dunn-esque.

I implore you to check out this fangraphs article for an impression of Dye's D:

OK, now I'm confused, Pato. I don't think I said that I am "willing to give up prospects for Uggla". I was just comparing him to Blalock and DeRosa.

So I have made no decision on Uggla.

I'm decided on this: No on Dye.

Wow, I guess you have a point there with Dye. I wasn't aware that he was that bad in the field and he probably should be a DH unless someone is dumb enough to sign him to play the field (um, Sabean?). Really though, the bottom line is that the options out there in free agency are not great, even Holliday and Bay have their drawbacks aside from being way too expensive.

Uggla is a decent player and I do agree that OBP is important throughout the lineup but a cleanup hitter who can't hit above .250 scares me. It would take a few prospects to get him and I am not so sure the Marlins are that pressed to trade him otherwise they would have probably done it last year. His value is lower this year as he has one less year on his contract and if they couldn't find any takers last year then I doubt they are willing to settle for less now especially since they know they can get draft picks for him when he leaves and signs with another team.

Blalock and DeRosa are obviously not ideal either but their price tag won't kill us, they can play multiple positions, and we don't have to give up any prospects to get them.

In the end, who knows what Sabean is thinking as in the past we had at least an idea around this time what direction he was looking to go in. Whoever he ends up signing, I think it is safe to say that there will be a need for upgrades before the trade deadline next year if this team expects to finish better then the dodgers and rockies.

Oh man, you are so right on that Sabean is the kind of GM that would sign Dye and play him in the field. It makes me sad.

Dan Uggla is actually under club control for two more years- the Marlins want to trade him because he'll cost big bucks in arbitration.

I agree with you that if the price in prospects is even as high as {Pucetas+Noonan}, the Giants should just sign a free agent. Voila! Farm system preserved.

That being said, Blalock and DeRosa will end up being bad free agent signings like Renteria (not even joking). Nick Johnson is a much better hitter, and I'd rather go after him.

Blalock and Nick Johnson will probbaly play the same amount of games with their history of injuries. Nick Johnson gets on base, but Blalock knocks homers. Blalock's batting average from last year is a cause for concern, but I think I prefer Blalock over Johnson, but not more than a one year deal and I would insist on incentives that could get him to $5 mill. I would not pay a dime over that. I still prefer going after Chone Figgins and move Pablo over to first.

If we could get Dye for that #, I would do it, but if there was nay chance to get Juan Rivera from the Angels for not more than a Merkin Valdez and some other pitching prospect like Sosa, that would be my first preference.

Getting on base leads to more runs than hitting homers.

That's why Johnson is better.

It sounds simplistic, but it's true. When people (nerds!) churned the data from past seasons to create formulas that relate team stats (OBP, SLG) to runs scored, OBP was much more valuable than SLG.

Therefore, I would much prefer the Giants get Johnson.

We need more out of the box thinking here. What Neukom needs to do is to call Frank McCourt and tell him that the Giants will pay McCourt's legal fees for the divorce in exchange for Andre Ethier. If that's not a win-win I don't know what is!

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