It's a busy work day, so let's get to the bullet points. I'll update this post with more items and thoughts as the day goes along, unless big news hits that requires its own post.
* 3pm: Scott Boras has spoken, and Brian Sabean has answered. Boras tried to fluff up the case for Adrian Beltre, and Sabean responded that he's mainly focused on first basemen, with a two-year contract in mind and "maybe something close to done." Let's just say it's Nick Johnson. Here's a lineup partially constructed from the hints Bochy and Sabean have dropped the past couple days:
Velez/Torres
Renteria
F. Sanchez
Sandoval
Johnson
Rowand
Schierholtz/Bowker
Posey/Mike Sadek
pitcher
Keep dealin', Sabes!
* 12.30pm: Why not Kevin Correia as 5th starter? He'll probably want to stay on the West Coast, he's familiar with the team, and the Giants' previous doubts about him as a starter should be assuaged by his 2009 season in San Diego. He could command $2 million, but the Giants could sorely use rotation depth, whether to bank against a J-Sanchez trade or to give Bumgarner more time in the minors.
* When I saw the Kevin Kouzmanoff rumor, I thought, "Good God, why not just go re-sign Pedro Feliz? He's just as hackalicious, he'll make roughly the same salary, and his D is better." Then I went to Fangraphs. Believe it or not, despite Kouz's crummy OBP, he compares favorably to Feliz. I won't get into the numbers, but the upshot is KK's hitting overcomes his disadvantage on D. And Feliz's D has regressed from spectacular to merely good, according to UZR. Still, "He's actually better than Pedro Feliz!" is not a reason to make a trade.
* Bruce Bochy's media session yesterday left me shaking my head. He said Velez should get the lion's share of time leading off. "Bochy hopes Velez can increase his unimpressive OBP and patience as he gains experience," writes Baggs. The good news: Bochy realizes Velez needs to improve. The bad news: Bochy might keep him in the leadoff spot all year waiting for him to improve on the false premise that "this kid continues to get better and better." As I've noted before, he didn't get better and better in the second half of 2009; he simply rode a hot start into an everyday job. Why doesn't this attitude apply to, say, Ryan Garko, who has shown glimpses in his pre-SF days of being a patient, powerful hitter? (One answer: Velez doesn't stand to make a couple million dollars in 2010. Another answer: You can't teach speed!) In a nutshell, there continues to be no rhyme or reason to the way the Giants evaluate position players.
* The hot market (at least for backup catchers) has taken the Giants by surprise. Last year, the slow market took the Giants by surprise, leading Sabean to say that he would wait things out this year. I'm going to reserve judgment for a couple more months, but the early trends show free agency -- the acquisition route the Giants said they prefer -- requiring a little more cash flexibility.
* "We want to stay young," said Brian Sabean. "That's a blanket statement." I suggest you season that statement with a very large grain of salt, dear readers.
I give KK the benefit of the doubt because he is young, plays in Petco, and has a horrible team around him. Not like any of that would change once he came here but he is fairly cheap and has some upside. I wouldn't wait a few months to pass judgement Lefty, I would give Sabean till the end of the winter meetings to at least show us something cuz he is painting an awfully gloomy picture so far.
>I wouldn't wait a few months to pass judgement Lefty, I would give Sabean till the end of the winter meetings
I actually meant that I'll wait to pass judgment on the state of the free agent market. The hype of the winter mtgs tend to distort everything, but by the end of January we might see just as many discount bargains (ie, Bobby Abreu, 1 year, $5 M) as we did last year.
My thought is the Giants should worry less about a playoff spot this year and set themselves up to drive hard for a championship the following three years.
Here's my scheme to address the everyday positions:
1. Keep Whiteside. His catching skills justify his occupying part time at-bats.
2. Bring Posey up and have him play full time, platooning at catcher and third. This gives him a chance to get full time at-bats while learning how to handle a MLB pitching staff. Remember that the goal is to have him excelling as a catcher in 2011.
3. Have Sandoval play full time platooning at third and first. That leaves Ishikawa, who I believe will still develop into a decent hitter, significant ABs.
4. (This is the pipe dream.) Give up the prospects and trade for Ramirez of the Marlins. Extend him. Keep Renteria as a utility IF or eat his last year.
---The infield for 2011 (and possibly beyond) would be Ishikawa, Sanchez, Ramirez, and Sandoval. Nice. Decent first base options are generally available in case Ishikawa doesn't developed.
5. Sign a free-agent OF with a little pop, possibly Marlon Byrd. It'd be easy to suggest Bay or Holliday, but that's not likely - especially if Ramirez is extended.
---I don't assign a lot of importance to shoring up the outfield unless a big bat materializes. The Giants have a few OFs (Schierholtz, Torres, and Velez) who will work well at Mays Field if they improve their OBP moderately. The farm system reportedly has a few prospects showing some power
Correia? Shirley you jest. He didn't pitch a meaningful inning all of last year, and was slightly better than so-so pitching in the best pitcher's park (particularly for fly ball pitchers) in the NL. $ for $, Joe Martinez is a much better value as a #5 than the Mediocre Mullet.
>He didn't pitch a meaningful inning all of last year
What does that mean? He didn't pitch in the playoffs? Against a top team? I don't understand how a major league pitcher can make 30+ starts and not pitch a meaningful inning.
What I meant was that the Pads started out slowly, and then went into a slump, so that they were never in contention for a division title. They did perk up in the second half, just enough to help ruin the Giants' chances.
Velez getting the lion's share at lead-off, The Horror, The Horror.
I really hate Bochy's stupidity.
Kouzmanoff was severely affected by his pitching-friendly home park, his road OPS is a shade over .800, which is good offense from a 3B. He is much better than Feliz in that regard, plus is still young.
I would love to see Correia back. I liked him when he was starting for us. Plus it would leave MadBum in AAA.
I would not oppose Correia as a fifth starter, but I would be interested in seeing what it would take to get Joe Blanton. May be Penny-esque in his abilities...
Amid much clamoring from absolutely no one, I will give my plan for the Giants to win the NL West on the cheap (base cost 12 mil in free agent contracts).
First I would sign Troy Glaus for 4 mil with incentives that could increase to 8 mil and a team option for 8 mil in 2011. Glaus was well enough at the end of last season to make the Cards post-season roster. His average value for 5 seasons before that was over 10 mil. (Of course he would have to pass a physical from the Giants crack medical team. We all know how tough that is.) He could take over 3rd base while Sandoval is holding down the catching position for the coming Messiah, Posey. The second season is insurance for first base when there is that inevitable breakdown by Nick Johnson
Nick Johnson I would sign for two years at 16 mil, the reasoning being that if he only plays half the time, he earns the money over two seasons. The gamble is he plays more than half the time.
Third, I would trade Matt Cain for a position player of equal value. Going by Fangraph’s Win Above Replacement (WAR), here are some position players with near equal value to Cain:
Player Pos. WAR Team
Matt Cain P 3.6 Giants
Nick Swisher RF-1B 3.5 Yankees
Shane Victorino OF 3.4 Phillies
Nelson Cruz OF 3.6 Rangers
Denard Span OF 3.8 Twins
Curtis Granderson CF 3.4 Yankees
Adam Lind OF 3.7 Blue Jays
Mark Reynolds 3B 3.9 Diamonbacks
Andrew McCutchen OF 3.4 Pirates
Hunter Pence OF 3.3 Astros
Some of these have big contracts already so shouldn’t be on the list but I left them in for comparison. I believe some of those GMs would jump at a straight up trade for Cain. My personal favorites would be Nelson Cruz or Hunter Pence. Both are cheap and under team control for a few years. Bill James projects Cruz to have a line of 284/354/541, for an OPS of 895. And he’s a pretty good fielder. Pence he projects for a 291/351/509 for an OPS of 860. He’s also a good fielder.
So the Giant lineup, after pouring in 12 mil starter money, would look like:
Rowand CF
Johnson 1B
Sandoval C
Cruz LF
Glaus 3B
Bowk/Nate RF
Sanchez 2B
Renteria SS
I’d keep Rowand at leadoff until he proves he can’t handle it. Sanchez is the option there. Sabean and Bochy specialize in finding pitchers and developing them. They’ll find decent 4th and 5th starters.
Why is nobody talking about Torres as the lead-off guy? He already has patience at the plate. He's got more power than Velez and he's faster too. No brainer.
Torres is coming off a great year (small sample; 170 PA) but his lifetime OBA (5 seasons; 455 PA) is .290. If the real Torres stood up I think his OBA would be no better than .330. Only Jimmy Rollins could get away with that at leadoff.
Walter, no way in god's green earth is Nick "the Walking Wounded" Johnson going to get a two-year deal, nor will he ever get $8 mill for a year. $6 mill for one year tops...I also think just looking at WAR for a pitcher as young as Cain uis very myopic. Cain's name should be uttered with Cabrera, Fielder or Ryan Howard. That is the only type of hitter I would ever dangle Cain for. Adrian Gonzalez as well. I would love to have Cruz, but Rangers are not coughing him up.
Concerning Glaus, couldn't Garrett Atkins have the potential to put up better numbers than Glaus. Plus would likely be aa very cheap pickup.
Last I saw there were 7 teams interested in Johnson. There may be a bidding war going on. That .426 OBA is gold at the top of a lineup. I would give him 16 mil for two years and hope I got more than one full year out of it. That’s how much I value the ability to avoid making an out.
There’s an old baseball axiom: ‘Never trade a position player for a pitcher of equal value.’ That’s one of the few old baseball axioms I believe. The reason being the fragility of pitchers. Modern free agency may have shifted that some but not enough for me. Salaries being equal, I would trade any of those position players straight up for Cain except maybe Victorino about whom I know little.
Atkins is in a 4 year decline the like of which is seldom seen. His OPS has gone from .965 to .853 to .780 to .650. There is always the suspicion that chemistry could be involved in numbers like that. But you’re right, he would be cheap.
While I generally agree and share the frustration over the choices made with the lineup, it's getting more and more common to hear seemingly opposing views simultaneously. On one hand, we're upset that a guy like Garko wasn't given enough of a chance while also complaining when Velez is given that very chance to try to improve that we supposedly sought for Garko. So which is it? Should Garko be here or Velez be out?