I came back last night from a weekend off the grid to see that, yep, sho' nuff, Brian Sabean et al stayed awfully quiet after whiffing on Nick Johnson -- more on that in a second -- which tells me that yes indeed Sabes is sticking to the plan. He told us early this offseason he would probably wait til prices came down, an approach we can sum up as The Abreu Gambit, in honor of the one-year $5 M deal the Angels gave Bobby Abreu last year in February and received a performance at twice the value of the contract.
The Nick Johnson situation tells us that there are other forces aligned against the Giants. Johnson preferred a one-year deal with the Yankees as a frequent DH instead of taking similar money from S.F., perhaps slightly more, with the ability to play the field every day. It feeds the suspicion that the Giants always and forever must overpay to lure free-agent hitters, especially lefties, to Mays Field. Just a week or two ago, Peter Gammons reported that Jason Bay didn't want to come to S.F., no way no how, even if the Giants offered the magic five-year contract. (Gammons hinted the Giants were willing. Yikes.)
So let's say Brian Sabean has gauged the market correctly: pretty good hitters can be had late into December and into January, presumably for decent deals...but will the Giants still need to overpay relative to the ever-deepening discount? I get the feeling that whatever the Giants end up paying Mark DeRosa, or Adrian Beltre, or Adam LaRoche, it's going to feel like they got jobbed. And a baseball writer or two will reinforce our suspicions with an anonymously sourced quote that "no one was within $15 million of the Giants' offer" (said the source, chuckling).
Great. Perhaps I'm too skeptical. Perhaps I haven't gotten over my bad case of Renterrheia from last winter. After all, there are still plenty of names on the board, and they all can't end up in Houston and Kansas City. See? Optimism! Sabes, fuggedabout this Nick Johnson mope. He took the easy way out. That's not the Giants Way. Stay strong, pal, you're playing this market like a freakin' Stradivarius.
