When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.27.2010
Glass Half Fred

No Giant polarizes the loyal fanbase like Fred Lewis. He's got plate discipline that makes statheads drool. He watches a lot of pitches and gets on base at a steady (though not elite) pace. He also watches a lot of third strikes. And when he gets on base, his basestealing skills are disappointing for such a fast guy.

His detractors say he should hit for more power, not be so passive at the plate. He certainly has the power; he's hit moonshots into the deepest parts of the Mays Field arcade. In fact the Giants' plan last year was to move him into the third slot and take a few more whacks. His supporters say he is what he is, a high-OBP guy whose talent should be put in the best context for it to blossom.

Stats confirm a couple conceptions about Freddie. He takes a lot of pitches, about 81% of all pitches he saw the past two years, compared to the league average of 75%. He also strikes out more than average. No surprise. But contrary to popular belief, he doesn't let a lot of strikes go by. The league average the past two years was about 65.6%, which is Lewis's career average. And last year, he swung at nearly 70% of pitches in the strike zone, or 4% higher than the league average.

Problem is, the past two years Freddie also swung and missed at pitches in the strike zone more than the average player. He's reading pitches as strikes, swinging at them, but not hitting them. This was most evident in his stone-cold leadoff streak in April, when he looked completely out of whack (more on this in a second).  

Defense is a similar game. His detractors see him as iron-gloved and ill-routed in the outfield. His supporters point to his UZR numbers and note they're quite good in left field given his reputation. He's fast enough to recover from whatever bad reads he makes, they explain; as for the clanks, well, all outfielders muff a ball once in a while, and unfortunately with Fred, each mistake reinforces a preconceived notion that his detractors have already formed.

So what is Fred? A decent leadoff option who plays above-average D in left field, or a shaky defender who can't pull the trigger at the plate? The debate is compounded by a question about his attitude.

Backstory: the Giants opened camp with Fred penciled into the #3 slot, but with Freddie getting on base at a .545 clip, Bochy moved him to leadoff on April 19. Ten days later, he was 4-for-31 with 15 strikeouts from the leadoff spot and he told Hank Schulman, "I don't know why. I'm just not comfortable right now. I haven't done it all spring. This is the first time. It's something (where) I guess I've got to start all over and get used to it."

That comment has been interpreted as a sulk, as begging out of the assignment. Did he beg out, or was he given no slack? He got thirty-one measly at-bats at leadoff after being told to prep for the #3 lineup slot all winter. How you feel about Freddie probably reflects on your attitude toward Giant management in general. Think of him as a tall, lean, Southern Rorschach test.

When the talk came to leadoff hitters a couple months ago, Velez/Torres were the official candidates in question, not Lewis. He's deep in the doghouse. Then again, there have been three DFAs this winter -- Bocock, Valdez and Guzman -- so if the team were ready to cut ties, they might have done it already.

I'm guessing his prospects of making the team are dim. If the Giants break camp with 12 pitchers and two catchers, they'll have room for 11 position players. Sandoval, Huff, Uribe, Renteria, DeRosa, F. Sanchez and Rowand are locks. Schierholtz probably has the nod in right because of his D. Velez will probably get a spot as superutility guy who doesn't do anything particularly well. Torres will get consideration for his work against LHP and his late-inning D. That makes 10. Ishikawa, Bowker, and Lewis will probably fight for the 11th spot. Fred's best chance to squeeze in might be for F. Sanchez to miss the first few weeks of the season because of his surgery.    



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I thought team speed was Randy Winn. Is there a chance he will be resigned?

Yes, by the Yankees, who decided they liked him better than the over 35 y.o. outfielders they had last year (Damon, Matsui).

I was a big FLew guy when he first came up. I believe that he has been given ample opportunities, and what you see is not likely to change. I would prefer to move him and take a longer look at Schierholtz and Bowker. The Giants need a premium outfielder; they can always pick up a so so guy later on.

Ideally I'd love to see Lewis, not Velez, as the 4th OF LH option. Perhaps even in a platoon with Torres in the leadoff spot. But for some reason the Giants are more enamored of Velez.

If F-Sanch is injured for any length of time, I could see this kind of roster:

12 pitchers

2 catchers

IF
Huff
DeRosa
Renteria
Uribe
Sandoval

OF
Rowand
Schierholtz
Lewis
Torres
Bowker
Velez

Velez= the ugly head of the two-headed monster.

Only Bochy seems to think Velez has any baseball aptitude.

Lewis (head case and all) >>> Velez.

I get why the Giants are enamored of Velez: special offensive players have either plus-plus power (HGH Bonds), plus-plus speed (Rickey), or plus-plus ability to make hard contact (Rose, Boggs). Velez is the only player on the roster with plus-plus speed, so he has at least the potential to be a special offensive player. Of course, if you look up "potential" in the dictionary, there is a photo of Merkin Valdez . . .

Great overview of the FLew situation!

I would add that the Giants never really said that Velez/Torres was their LF/leadoff for 2010, only that at that moment, they appear to be the best chance of that and that the Giants were not satisfied with that option.

I think the Giants didn't want to set Lewis's expectations high then dash them should the Giants be able to sign someone for the LF position, which they then filled with DeRosa. Lewis grumbles to the media, Velez is just happy to be around.

I had all this written in my head for a post, but I will just post it here first and get to my post later.

First, they have been mentioning keeping Ishikawa all off-season and even noted that they would play him in LF to give him more opportunities in 2010, so I don't think that he is on the bubble. He would have to totally stink to not make the team, I think, and with his superlative defense, I think he's pretty much a lock to make the team, as he'll be a cheap option at 1B after Huff leaves. The Giants will be better able to afford his below-average offense at 1B but superlative defense when Posey joins the team in 2011 and hopefully be another potent bat in the lineup.

To me, the reserves looks locked to be Whiteside, Uribe, and Ishikawa, leaving an UI and an BO (utility infielder and backup outfielder) spots open.

I think Rohlinger and Frandsen battles for UI with Frandsen the favorite (despite the Giants mentioning only Rohlinger and no mention of Frandsen) to win because he has no options left, and Rohlinger do have options left. Velez dark horse there.

I think Lewis, Torres, Velez, and the loser of RF between Schierholtz and Bowker will be battling for BO. I expect Schierholtz to win RF since has no options left and Bowker does, plus Bowker needs to prove he has really changed and not that 2009 was a outlier so I expect him in AAA, unless Bowker becomes Barry Bonds II during spring. If Schierholtz is the starter, Lewis should win the BO spot; if Bowker is the starter, I expect Schierholtz to be BO and Lewis would be in the spot opened up by Sanchez being out (though Velez too), if he is out (I would bet that the Giants will put him on DL in precaution to give more rest and preparation, only 2 weeks plus got Uribe there).

Overall, I expect Lewis to be our 4th OF, with Ishikawa and Frandsen pitching in occassionally in LF. He can play all three positions OK, get on base, steal a base on occassion, plus the occassional pop. Torres was really lucky in 2009, there is a reason he's been a journeyman all these years and didn't play in the majors since 2005 or 6 until with us in 2009. Velez's shortcomings are evident, but the Giants gave him multiple chances to show what he got, and he don't got much. He's OK as a 4th OF, but FLew is a better option, I think.

However, it also depends on how bad an attitude FLew got. If he is too much of a pain, a malcontent now, the Giants are probably going to hold onto him in case nobody takes RF, and if that happens, he could enter back into starting OF, maybe LF with DeRosa in RF, not sure how they might work that. Otherwise, once Schierholtz or Bowker clearly is the starter, FLew would be traded for $ or a prospect, because sometimes players just need to move on when their mind and body is not there anymore.

That applies to Frandsen too.

Don't know where either's minds are right now, but these are issues the Giants will have to account for that we outsiders know only a little of.

And to be brutally frank, what is he, a child: "... I'm just not comfortable right now. I haven't done it all spring. This is the first time. It's something (where) I guess I've got to start all over and get used to it."?

He had been leading off for the most part in the minors and majors for how long? Then switches to batting third and all that experience is lost on him? Is his mind that fragile that he can't handle switching lineup positions? I can understand switching defensive positions and having to deal with the changes that entails.

But it is just another lineup position, and all he had to do was what he was doing so greatly while batting 3rd. Does changes really bother him that much? See ball. Hit ball or get on base. Not really that hard, to me.

And to blame a lineup change for your problems. I can see maybe complaining if you are moved to batting 8th. But if you can't handle switching from 3rd to 1st when basically all you had to do was bat the same way as you were when you were batting 3rd, then what good are you as a starter?

I like FLew and have supported him in the past but last year was like watching a retard try to hump a doorknob. I would however keep him over Torres if it came down to it as Torres is not a major leaguer and I think Freddy is. Having said that, if he goes which he will I won't miss him too much and wish him luck wherever he ends up. It could just be a case of change of scenery that gets him back on track.

"So what is Fred?"

A head case.

Lewis is so tantalizing because he seems to have all the tools but he never seems to put it all together and take the final step. He's fast but can't steal bases. He has power but seems to hit like a contact hitter. He covers a lot of ground in left but can't read the ball and catch it. It seems a little late in his career for him to put it all together.

I'm actually bummed that they're putting De Rosa in left. Another journeyman player for Sabean. I would take a chance on Bowker there. The idea of Bowker in right is scary as he would be a liability there. Ishikawa's swing is too long. I woudl rather see Bowker as back-up 1B and fourth outfielder.

A few years ago, Tony La Russa came up with one of my favorite all time baseball quotes. Half of the Cardinal team went down with injuries and he said, “This is a great opportunity to see what our prospects can do.” Or words to that effect. That’s the way winners think.

The Giants? They are talking about shifting around veterans to fill the void of Sanchez’s injury. This is a great opportunity to see what the team has in the way of left fielders. Give Bowker the first thirty games out there. Word is that he fits better for left than right field. Or give Flewis another shot. I think he’s a better left fielder than DeRosa anyway. His UZR is probably correct because he is compared to other left fielders so it’s bound to be good. The word I had on Lewis, which might be myth, was that he told Boche he did not want to hit leadoff. If true, his career with the Giants should be over. If he can’t hit leadoff he can’t play. He doesn’t fit anywhere else.

And speaking of outfielders, not to be too longwinded, the Giant brass is bragging about the great winter Nate Schierholtz had in a Caribbean winter league. He had a horrible winter. He hit 324 with one homer in a hitter’s league and had a non-intentional walk rate of under 2.5%. Under 2.5%!!! I wonder if the Giant brass are trying to put a good face on it or if they just don’t understand how horribly he did. I doubt he will ever hit well enough to hold down right field, at least on any team but the Giants.

And speaking of longwinded, this is for OGC. Where a batter hits in the lineup could and should change his approach at the plate. In what I laughably call my “baseball career,” I always hit leadoff except for one season in which the competition was below my level. They hit me cleanup. I stood up straight. I dug in. I actually felt much stronger. I didn’t even look for a walk, though I would take one. I was looking for a ball to pull. Next season I was back in my crouch at leadoff and praying for a walk. Maybe that’s just me.

Just to put Schierholtz’ walk rate in perspective it would have been the 2nd worst in the majors last season. Only Bengie Molina’s would have been a little worse.

So going into 2009, Lewis was a potential #3 hitter. One year and 300 ABs later, he doesn't fit on the team. I guess there's a good chance he's a 4th OF, but I would much rather watch him play than Mark Derosa/Aaron Rowand.

Meant to mention that all three have similar projections, for what that's worth. And Lewis has significantly more upside than either of those guys at this point in their careers.

Lewis had like 2 RBI's 3 months into the season last year. It may be an overrated stat but there is something seriously wrong with someone who can't stumble onto a couple more ribbies by accident...

How many RBI do you expect a leadoff hitter on an anemic offense to get? The reason RBI is overrated is because people can "stumble onto a couple more ribbies by accident." Or not stumble onto any.

One thing your article didn't mention was Lewis' RBI total. He knocked in fewer than 20 runs in over 300 PA even though he hit 3rd, 5th, 6th or 7th in the order most of the season. He does walk a lot and no other Giant is a patient hitter, but he just couldn't come through with any clutch hits. Add in his high strikeout total and you have a well below average offensive player. Since he also struggled in the outfield the Giants have better options than Freddie. I think Lewis is a perfect example of what is wrong with the Giants player development. He's a good athlete with speed and occasional power, yet after years in the system he can't steal bases, bunt and is a poor outfielder. Why a lefty hitter with speed and power to the opposite field can't bunt is beyond me.

Once again, RBI are fairly meaningless, especially when we're talking about a guy who was hitting leadoff for the first couple months. Which is when they decided he was no longer valuable despite his ~.800 OPS at the time.
"Since he also struggled in the outfield"
According to whom?

Apparently you don't watch many Giants games Derek. Freddy at least a dozen times last year looked rediculous trying to field line drives right at him. I went to one game against the dodgers where he misjudged 2 balls that got by him and another that went off his glove and luckily Rowand was behind him and caught the carum.

Also, the reason why I believe RBI's are important is because I do believe in clutch hitting and the adjustments that both hitters and pitchers make when runners are in scoring position. Even if Lewis didn't have anyone to drive in while batting leadoff, he obviously didn't hit a significant amount of HR's or drive in runners after he was dropped down in the lineup. RBI's at the very least show you that the player has done SOMETHING at the plate whether it be hit a fly ball, a grounder deep in the infield, or even takes a walk with bases loaded. When you don't get any over the course of your first 200 or so at bats, there is something wrong with your approach at the plate.

Follow the link to see his UZR. He's been better than the average LF despite misplaying a ball now and then.

Again, I'll argue that RBIs don't tell you much regarding what a player has done. In fact, where they fail to give a good idea of a player's offensive value is with guys like Lewis. The first two months he had 8 RBI, but an .800 OPS. I'll take the .800 OPS any day.

FLew is just hard to watch.

Looks like a soused beer leaguer in LF and incapable of putting the ball in play with runners on base.

Those 2 RBI made me laugh every time I checked the team stats.

I don't really know what 2 RBI you're talking about. He had 1 RBI in April (with an .823 OPS). Then 7 more in May.

Talk about missing the point.

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