When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.19.2010
Molina's Return Overshadows Timmy's Big Day

Last night I dubbed today "The Arbocalypse," but it's ended up in Mo'saster. In some people's eyes, at least.

Bengie's back, and he's going to be the 2010 opening day catcher barring a miracle. In my previous post I went over some pros and cons, but I omitted one good thing about Posey starting the year in AAA, as reader giantsrainman pointed out: The Giants can delay Posey's arbitration status if they slow down his MLB clock. As we've seen with Lincecum, Super-Two arb status can be costly. (If the Giants left him in the minors a few more days, Lincecum would have had to wait until the end of 2010 to hit arbitration.)

Speaking of arb, the Giants could end up spending $15 M - $20 M extra this year. Jonathan Sanchez will make $2.1 million. Lincecum will get either $8 M or $13 M -- no way he loses if it actually goes to arbitration. Brian Wilson submitted $4.75 M, the Giants $4 M, which surprised me. I thought he'd be more in Sanchez's range.

Now add Bengie Molina's $4.5 million. Unless he hits sudden decline -- a distinct possibility for any 35-year-old, let alone a well-used catcher -- the Giants know what they're getting: a sub-.300 OBP, a decent power hitter (for a catcher) whose SLG would be better if he didn't turn so many doubles into singles. FanGraphs likes to put a dollar value on performance, and believe it or not the Giants got more than their money's worth the past three years. They paid Bengie $16.5 million, and he gave back more than $29 million. Can he do it again?

Of four projection systems, the best prediction puts Bengie around his career average, which would be better than his offensive performance last year. I'm tempted to say that with more rest, Bengie might be a more effective hitter, but that assumes one of two stupid things: 1) the Giants keep Posey in the bigs as a backup, which makes no sense. 2) Eli Whiteside or some other banjo-hittin' backup gets a lot more PT, which would probably counterweigh any improvements in Bengie's game.

There's another factor that might shift Bengie's approach at the plate. He'll no longer be the cleanup hitter. So reports Hank Schulman: Molina will "probably hit sixth, probably will hit sixth in the order, where his lack of speed will not be as harmful to long rallies."

And where his sub-.300 on-base percentage and extreme double-play threat doesn't clog up the bases.  

As I wrote earlier today, I reckon Bruch Bochy is already looking for excuses to slide him up the order. But let's say Molina hits sixth, even seventh. Will less pressure to be the big bat make him swing at fewer bad pitches?

Am I grasping at straws?

Yes I am. Here. Have a straw.

Bottom line: If we could see into the future and know Buster Posey absolutely positively needs another year in the minors, I wouldn't mind this deal so much. Except for the price tag: Did the Giants really need to spend $4.5 M? Why not a little less and save a bit for a bullpen arm or a cheap fifth starter to add depth? Why?

Question of the day: Why? Discuss.   



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This was definitely a bombshell, mostly because of the fact that I am shocked ownership is willing to push payroll now close to $100 million.

If that is the case, our chances to build a championship team in the next three years has improved dramatically.

My thoughts:

1) At the start of the off-season, I did not think Posey would be ready by April 1 and had expected Molina to be back on board at $6 million for one year. So I will bet there is a $1.5 mill buyout for 2011. But if not, $4.5 is good kharma because Molina really has been a trooper and bringing him back will provide some good mental waves for the team;

2) Posey will hopefully be a mid-season call up;

3) With Huff and DeRosa, see I am turning positive and dropping my DuDRosa reference, we actually have a semblance of an order;

4) I am intrigued by the possibility of Eric Byrnes if he is 100% because it really wont cost anything and he may bring great energy to the top of the lineup. He is a homer, gamer and a Giants fan...all great frickin kharma. Bring him into spring training, let him compete and see if Torres or Velez up their game and out-perform him, he is at least a cheaper option than Podsednik;

5) As it stands today, this is a better team than at the start of last year and at the end of last year, I think Molina back on board probably adds 3-4 wins and this team may be a credible 90-win team.

6) Final thought, in regard to the arb numbers, I had guessed in December that Lincecum would get $12 mill, Brian Wilson, $4 million and J. Sanchez at $2 million...pretty darn close dont you think?

My sentiments concur with your analysis.

We have, at the very least, a proven major league line-up.

Let's face it:

Manny Burriss wasn't ready last year.

Winn was in decline.

Aurilia was a parasite.

Ishikawa can't square up a hard fastball and has no doubles power.

Velez is a space alien.

Fred Lewis is a mental basket case.

Who should be cut to make room for Molina? Velez.

I like this comment.

Wow! What will Sabs & GBrass think up next? Bonds as hitting coach/riod confessor, oh yeah that ones been done already. Hmmmm.

1. Timmy - don't bid so damm low - this guy is THE FRANCHISE. Pay him. Period.

2. BMoney - this is killing me. Just change his name and put him in a differnt catchers mask, like they do in WWF. Then come back as "El Cabrone". I could stomach that. Overall, $$$ too high, stats to low and Bochy in love - not a good combo.

3. Sanchy & BWill deals sound fine.

Frankly my hand is getting mighty sore from all this rosterbation. Seems like a lot of work and all the holes in the dyke from last year's team still exist.

Oh yeah:

1) Byrnes/Rowand - CF (Byrnes couldfd get 3-4 starts in center and 1-2 in left or right, that would leave Rowand getting 3-4 starts in center and maybe 1 in right);

2) F. Sanchez - 2B (a lock now at the 2 spot)

3) Panda - 3B

4) Huff - 1B

5) DeRosa - LF

6) Nate/(Rowand agaisnt some lefties further down in the order) - RF

7) Molina - C

8) Renteria/Uribe (Uribe higher up in the order when he plays, especially agaisnt lefties) - SS

Eric Byrnes is another overpaid, over the hill veteran OF with little power, a weak arm, and diminishing range. Signing DeRosa, Uribe, Molina and then Byrnes is diametrically opposed to the front office's promise to build a young team.

That said , , ,

I would LOVE the Giants to pick up Burnsie for the veteran's minimum. With all of the la cucaRoaches in the league who whine about hitting in AT&T, here is a guy who loves the Giants and loves the game. Even if he is a bust, there's very little to lose. But I think he's telling the truth, and a healthy Byrnes is a much cheaper JDamon. I promise, if the Gigantes manage to both sign Burnsie AND dump Rowand, I will surrender my Lunatic Fringe T-shirt and jump on board with both feet.
Oh please oh please oh please

To answer the question of "why", I say:

Because it's the Giants and we couldn't possibly have gone through a whole off-season without a "WTF" moment.

Zito before 07. Also Roberts and Aurilia.
Rowand before 08.
Aurilia again before 09.

Probably someone in 06 who I do not remember.

Lefty, i did not get to comment on your bullpen comments, but I think Waldis Joaquin will be the guy that takes Valdez' spot. I also can see them going with just a 6-man pen to start the season and carry the extra outfielder if Byrnes makes the team...so Wilson, Affeldt, Romo, Runzler, Joaquin, Medders and probably Joe Martinez as the 7th guy...(maybe he is the fifth starter)...

I am ok on team speed if the Byrnes thing works out. If he can be a .290 hitter that works the count and even just starts half the time with maybe Velez and Torres picking up some leadoff starts, with Freddie and Panda hitting behind, our team speed should be ok. Sanchez should be in the .300 range and move along leadoff hitters and if Panda pushes his .330 average from last year, we should have a couple of guys on base for Huff, DeRosa, Molina, Nate and Uribe when he is in there to knock around some hitters.

Lefty, give us the runs scored projections with Molina and company starting when you get a chance, still 4.5 per game? I would think Molina will be more productive than an untested Posey at this point. I think this could be a 90 win team if our fifth starter is reliable enough...

Here's how I'm justifying this as an OK deal:
For $4.5 mill, the Giants essentially bought half a season of AAA more for Posey and two AA players to be named later.
Posey can get brought up when he's deemed fully ready without opening day pressures. Molina can then be traded away, assuming that the Giants eat all of his salary. For a free rental, a veteran catcher will be attractive to pennant-chasing teams. And if Posey is good to go after spring training, you pull the trigger on this trade as soon as it's ready.
This entire plan revolves on Molina not devolving into a pile of dust.

This Brynes thing is out of control. IF he was 100% the same player, Az wouldn't have dumped his $11million ass. They obviously saw enough this winter and decided he's finished as a frontline player. The legs go, it's over.

Yes. We have a surplus of 5th OF's already. Brynes has a big mouth that plays well at KNBR and their ditto heads.

Yeah, enough with the Byrnes chatter. Bottom line: minor league invite, fine. Don't guarantee him any money or a roster spot. And before you argue about his hustle and his gamerocity and his love of the Giants, read this.

@SJG: "Probably someone in 06 who I do not remember."

Are you kidding? The off-season before the 06 season was full of WTF acquisitions. Matt Morris (10-15, 4.98, and a lot closer to the end than anyone would've thought); Tim Worrell (put up a 7.52 ERA before getting hurt and retiring on the Giants' dime); Steve Finley (481 PAs at age 41, with a .714 OPS); and even the backups: Mark Sweeney (.712 OPS); Todd Greene (out of baseball after 2006); and Jose friggin Vizcaino, who was signed to be a utility IF at age 38 and somehow got 136 PAs before his .564 OPS did him in.

Man, that's depressing to write. What a mess this team was, but when you look at Sabean's veteran-love this off-season, maybe some things haven't really changed.

Bochy's love affair with veterans continue ... sheesh. I love Bengie, don't get me wrong ... he's an awesome Giant, but at some point you gotta let go and give the young guys a shot. This reminds me of Rich Aurilia, in that it took him a couple of years to get in the starting lineup in the late 90s after the Giants cycled through crap veteran shortstops.
I know Boch used to be a catcher, so I'm sure he's more knowledgeable than I am on this, but seriously, if Posey' problem is called a game behind the plate, how can you ever expect him to learn and grow if you don't give him a chance?

I used to post alot on MCC and the Giants site and even here, but these days , not so much. Why? Because 1)when you stare at the roster for 12 months straight you develop a form of pessimistic myopia, in which every move is a disaster made in a vacuum. And of course 2) I no longer wish to spend time debating roster moves with alot of the guys who do keep at it all year who were about as stable as a bag of rats in a meth lab fire even before they developed myopia. Lefty is probably the most balanced guy outr there , seeing as he actually has a 'life' and a 'family' and he keeps some perspective, but Lefty, even you get too down staring at this all the time.
Take a step back and what you see is that 1) the offense is greatly improved this off season. Bengie and Renteria may see the top half of the order for an occasional Busman's holiday, but for the most part they are bottom of the order in the '10 lineup. 2) Posey isn't ready to catch and he wasn't going to start this year benjie or no Benjie. A year in AAA's best case is that he will rise to an average backstop, he really needs two before he is ML quality behind the plate. 3) Benjie is better than the other alternatives being kicked around, or were you looking forward to two years of Yorvit without a mile high boost to his numbers? 4) If Benjie's hitting in the 4 hole I care about his OBP. If he's hitting in the 6 hole I want him driving in runs. 5) With the team having pretty much blown the payroll, we are going to finally see what Nate and Bowker can do in RF, and I think we will be fairly happy. And Finally 6) unless colorado has another one of those seasons where they manufacture wins wholesale from unicorn farts, and fairy dust, I think this team is in it to the wire.

Good post. Please post more often.

I'm glad there was Bengie-esque signing. I'm just not sure about the $4.5M - though one must harken back to people carrying on about Lincecum being called up "a week too early". In the long run, that will save money, though as it's not mine, I'm not sure I care.

One has to be amused at the comments here and elsewhere about how "well, at least Bengie will be farther down in the lineup" - that's not really much of a compliment.

My only fear is that Bochy remains veteran-obsessed, and we don't see Posey at all this year - or at least he doesn't get a fair shot, like too many rookies as of late. Despite the lineup improvements, the team lives or dies on the pitching staff, so I can see Bochy's point, but how bad can Posey be?

Money aside, it's the whole risk-averse strategy that Sabean takes that's most disturbing. Of which there are too many examples stated above. When the dust settles, the various W/L projections will probably be pretty reliable - which is kinda depressing.

Great... I'm in deed thinking about something else. like the post is about sports and somehow about Tim and is talking about a little however, interesting thing is that the comments are rather more attractive then of the post. Marc, you said pretty right.

very informative thank youNike Outlet
Yooo bon travail avec ce message! LOL il a fait quelque chose pour moi.
Merci pour l'excellente revue!

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