Last night I dubbed today "The Arbocalypse," but it's ended up in Mo'saster. In some people's eyes, at least.
Bengie's back, and he's going to be the 2010 opening day catcher barring a miracle. In my previous post I went over some pros and cons, but I omitted one good thing about Posey starting the year in AAA, as reader giantsrainman pointed out: The Giants can delay Posey's arbitration status if they slow down his MLB clock. As we've seen with Lincecum, Super-Two arb status can be costly. (If the Giants left him in the minors a few more days, Lincecum would have had to wait until the end of 2010 to hit arbitration.)
Speaking of arb, the Giants could end up spending $15 M - $20 M extra this year. Jonathan Sanchez will make $2.1 million. Lincecum will get either $8 M or $13 M -- no way he loses if it actually goes to arbitration. Brian Wilson submitted $4.75 M, the Giants $4 M, which surprised me. I thought he'd be more in Sanchez's range.
Now add Bengie Molina's $4.5 million. Unless he hits sudden decline -- a distinct possibility for any 35-year-old, let alone a well-used catcher -- the Giants know what they're getting: a sub-.300 OBP, a decent power hitter (for a catcher) whose SLG would be better if he didn't turn so many doubles into singles. FanGraphs likes to put a dollar value on performance, and believe it or not the Giants got more than their money's worth the past three years. They paid Bengie $16.5 million, and he gave back more than $29 million. Can he do it again?
Of four projection systems, the best prediction puts Bengie around his career average, which would be better than his offensive performance last year. I'm tempted to say that with more rest, Bengie might be a more effective hitter, but that assumes one of two stupid things: 1) the Giants keep Posey in the bigs as a backup, which makes no sense. 2) Eli Whiteside or some other banjo-hittin' backup gets a lot more PT, which would probably counterweigh any improvements in Bengie's game.
There's another factor that might shift Bengie's approach at the plate. He'll no longer be the cleanup hitter. So reports Hank Schulman: Molina will "probably hit sixth, probably will hit sixth in the order, where his lack of speed will not be as harmful to long rallies."
And where his sub-.300 on-base percentage and extreme double-play threat doesn't clog up the bases.
As I wrote earlier today, I reckon Bruch Bochy is already looking for excuses to slide him up the order. But let's say Molina hits sixth, even seventh. Will less pressure to be the big bat make him swing at fewer bad pitches?
Am I grasping at straws?
Yes I am. Here. Have a straw.
Bottom line: If we could see into the future and know Buster Posey absolutely positively needs another year in the minors, I wouldn't mind this deal so much. Except for the price tag: Did the Giants really need to spend $4.5 M? Why not a little less and save a bit for a bullpen arm or a cheap fifth starter to add depth? Why?
Question of the day: Why? Discuss.
