Ray Ratto wet his pencil and crunched some numbers in today's column, showing us how the Giants will end up with a $100-million payroll this year.
It feeds back to my point a couple posts ago that unless the new ownership group has suddenly decided to buy a long-term membership in the hundred-million club, the situation won't last long. Either Zito or Rowand goes, or the Giants trade one or more of the young guys. Perhaps not this season, but let's look ahead at what happens post-2010.
Barring exercised options, five guys likely become free agents: Molina, Huff, Renteria, Affeldt, and Uribe. They represent $25.5 million in payroll. Best-case scenario, the Giants replace them with low-cost players that average half a mil in salary. That's a net gain of $23 million. But the best-case scenario is highly unlikely. Perhaps Brandon Crawford or Manny Burriss can become the starting SS, or Runzler can become the top bullpen lefty with another youngster taking the empty spot. But knowing this team, at least a couple of these slots will be filled with higher-priced vets. (For example, Pablo Sandoval slides to 1B, Mark DeRosa moves to 3B, and the Giants sign a new outfielder. In case you're wondering, Sandoval and Nate Schierholtz each have just over a year of MLB service, which means I think they don't hit arb until post-2011.)
Then add big raises again for Tim Lincecum, Brian Wilson and Jonathan Sanchez -- another $10 M to $15 M for the three of them -- and it'll take either very creative math or subtraction of a multi-million dollar contract or two to get the payroll under $100 M.
Not that I want it to be so. If more payroll equals more wins equal more happy playoff fun time, then by all means. Perhaps Bill Neukom is willing to cash out his Microsoft shares to turn the Giants into Red Sox West (or Angels North), ie, a well-heeled ballclub that actually has a clue. Windows? Office? X-Box? Gotta get 'em all. I hear the Zune is the perfect stocking stuffer.
Whether the Giants brass sees $100 M as a magic threshold or not, it's wiser to assume that pennies sooner or later will be pinched. And, barring a Sabeanic miracle that finds a new home for The Contracts That Shall Not be Named, the pinching will come at the expense of the young talented guys who are getting kind of expensive.
I mentioned Matt Cain as prime suspect #1 -- he's due to earn $6.25 M in 2011 and a ton more in free agency after that -- but Brian Wilson's first arb year, in which he'll be making somewhere in the four-mil range, snuck up on me. One more good year, and he's prime suspect #1a, especially if Dan Runzler or Waldis Joaquin or both have breakout years in 2010.
So instead of a Zune for my birthday, I'm asking for a rejuvenated Aaron Rowand who suddenly becomes the perfect trading chip. Look, Kenny Williams, it's a shiny shiny Rowand!
