For all the warm, fuzzy, cult-status love for Juan Uribe 'round these parts, let's face it, there's a real danger he'll regress to his past form of being one of the worst hackers in baseball. It's like his avatar is a non-blue, non-sexy Pedro Feliz. I haven't seen the movie, but all the kids are talking about it, so I figure a hip reference would go a long way to win over some new readers.
Back to Uribe: Last year's .329 OBP was his career high. Perhaps he's turned a corner, and he'll just get older, wiser, and more plate-disciplined! Would you like to share my magic sprinkles?
Most people in baseball were not tempted by the warm fuzzies or the magic sprinkles, and Uribe came back to S.F. for a one-year deal that pays $3.25 M despite giving the Giants $13 M worth of feel-goodness in 2009. I don't think this is akin to Adrian Beltre going all counter-intuitive on us. My guess is that everyone saw Uribe's '09 as a fluke, and the Giants probably did, too. Drip some truth serum into his ear, and Brian Sabean likely would admit he'd be thrilled if Uribe gives S.F. 50% to 75% of what he gave them last year.
So all this talk about Uribe starting every day at third base, don't expect that to be the final say, full-stop, period. Everything the Giants brass says this winter should end with an ellipsis...
Yes, Uribe was the starting 3B for much of the second half last year. But surely the Giants know about BABIP (surely! surely?!?) -- you know, a player's batting average on balls in play, which gives a rough showing of a player's luck -- and Uribe's '09 BABIP was .330, by far the highest of his career not counting his abbreviated rookie year. He's hit more line drives the past two years than he has since leaving Colorado, which might indicate the higher BABIP isn't just luck, but chances are Uribe will need a lot of continued good luck to repeat or come close to his '09 season. If you dig such things, two different projections systems, CHONE and Bill James, predict Nate Schierholtz will outhit Uribe next year by a wide margin.
With Mark DeRosa, Pablo Sandoval, even Freddie Sanchez able to play third base, don't expect Bochy to keep Uribe in the starting lineup there day in, day out if he reverts back to the slop hacker of the mid-aughts.
That's not to say the Giants shouldn't have re-signed him. His defensive flexibility is valuable. His ability to hit with power is something most utility infielders completely lack. He's not an obvious lefty-masher -- in fact his splits in '09 were bizarro-world -- so exploiting Uribe's strengths is not a simple proposition.
With yesterday's press conference behind us, how about a little lineup fun (and feel free to put ironic quotemarks around the word "fun"):
CF Rowand
SS Renteria
2B Sanchez
1B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
RF Schierholtz
3B Uribe
C Posey
P Lincecum
Using this lineup analysis tool and the Bill James set of 2010 OBP and SLG predictions, the above lineup would score just under 4.5 runs a game, for what it's worth. In 2009 they averaged 4.05 runs a game. Also figure pinch-hitters and double-switches will boost the numbers from the #9 slot and give a tick more offense. I don't put tons of stock in the analysis tool, not to mention accurate stastical projections, but at least it's a conversation starter next time you walk into a bar:
"Did you know it's possible the Giants lineup is already half a run per game better than last year?"
I highly recommend this as a pick-up line, by the way. But I don't recommend using the phrase "slop hacking." Big turn-off.
Hey, I told my wife on our first date that I was a slop hacker, and she told me it was a turn on. She thought it meant that I was willing to do the dishes.
My concern about any projection with a lineup including Rowand, Renteria, F. Sanchez and DeRosa is that it necessarily presumes a season of good health, which is contrary to these players' history. It is equally likely that these lineup spots will see a lot of Velez, Burriss, and Rohlinger, with the attendant dip in offense.
[I still do the dishes, btw.]
They don't all have a history of injuries. Before 2009, DeRosa was out 15 days in 2006 for a sprained left foot, Renteria was out 34 days in 2007 with a sprained right ankle, and Sanchez was out 96 days in 2004 and 6 days in 2007. Rowand only recorded one DL but given his 2008 with the Giants, who knows how many days he should have missed due to injuries.
So Sanchez and Rowand I can go for a history of injuries, but DeRosa has been missing games not because of injury but because he's not a full-time player, never been, won't be with us either. At $6M per, he's not paid like one either. And Renteria has recorded 8 seasons with 149+ games played, so he's historically been pretty healthy.
Plus, despite his tender health issues, Rowand has averaged 148 games with us, and nearly 600 plate appearances. And while he hasn't been as good as we hoped, he has been consistenly mediocre. For a lineup like ours, mediocre is OK, horrible is bad.
And Sanchez averaged 150 games played for Pittsburgh from 2006-2008.
So, while I wouldn't expect any of them to play a full season for us, I think it is reasonable to think that they can get into 130-149 games for us, and that is OK because we have backups nearly as good in Uribe (MI, 3B), DeRosa (MI, CI), Bowker (OF), Frandsen (MI), Velez (2B/LF) who could fill in if there is an injury.
While DeRosa has been moving around the diamond playing many different positions he has gotten starter PAs each of the last four years with a low of 572 and a high of 593 thus with just a tiny variance of 21 PAs. The Giants are not paying him $6M a year to do less. The plan is clearly to get him in this same range of PAs in both 2010 and 2011 and to continue to take advantage of his ability to play multiple positions.
Uribe is an excellent utility player but not an everyday starter by any stretch of the imagination other than in Bochy's head.
My guess is that LaRoche is still on their radar.
They never said that Uribe would be the starter at 3B, just that he could be.
With a 4.5 RS in 2009, the Giants would have won 93 games with the pitching and defense they had.
How "fun." I like this lineup a little better (using the same starters):
1. Rowand (CF)
2. Sanchez (2B)
3. Schierholtz (RF)
4. Sandoval (1B)
5. DeRosa (LF)
6. Uribe (3B)
7. Renteria (SS)
8. Posey (C)
9. Lincecum (P)
While I like Schierholtz in the 3 spot, I think ELM's lineup is closer to what the Giants have been telegraphing in their interviews and press conferences this off-season.
I expect DeRosa to end up hitting 3rd with the yet to be acquired lefthanded bat (expecting Adam LaRoche to ultimately figure out that we are his best choice) hitting 5th.
The Lineup would then be:
Rowand CF
Sanchez 2B
DeRosa LF
Panda 3B
LaRoche 1B
Schierholtz RF
Posey C
Renteria SS
With a bench of:
Whiteside C
Ishikawa 1B/LF
Uribe 2B/3B/SS
Velez LF/2B
Torres RF/CF
Lewis and Frandsen will be gone and Bowker who still has an option left will be in Fresno.
IF La Roche comes on board, your line-up, I think is pretty accurate.
On the bench, substitute Bowker for Ishikawa. It makes no sense for a guy who has never played the OF to take the place of a guy who HAS play BOTH corner OF and 1B at the majors.
Bowker can be optioned to Fresno without waivers while Ishikawa can not without first pasing thru wiavers. Thus it will be Bowker of these two that goes to Fresno.
Why would they keep a LH defensive specialist (Ishikawa) if they sign LaRoche? Does that make sense??
Ishikawa is a 1B, and Bowker is a corner OF. Versatility is something the G's value. It doesn't make sense at all to keep Ishikawa no mattter what except to a dwindling group of fervent believers.
You folks who like Ishikawa make it seem as though he's a young Reggie Jackson. (And btw, spinning a bunch of stats comparing Reggie to TI isn't going to cut it, so cut it out before it happens.)
I love the idea of trying Nate at third...very intriguing. I would flop Posey to 7th and Renteria to 8th. With the black hole hitting 8th, Posey would get pitched around and will teach him to take pitches and get on base. Hitting 8th, Posey's mindset and for most 8th place hitters are to swing away because the pitcher is next, so leads to very bad habits.
Still dont think Rowand will be hitting leadoff by start of the season..can someone run the #s with Gigantes lineup with Podsednik at leadoff?
magic sprinkles? I was watching some vid of Uribe. He looks HUGE!
Some of his offensive resurrection (best LD% since COL, etc.) could be a product of getting out of the American League....
It's more likely due to his unsustainable level of BAPIP last year. Expect a regression in 2010.
That would be BABIP...............can't type.
Neither can I. It's called "English Majors' Disease."
I agree that people are too much in love with Uribe because of how well he did. Fans have been very fickle, they loved Winn, then hated Winn, then loved Winn for a couple of years, before hating him again last season. I would call it a Winn-Lose scenario. :^)
ELM, you should try the lineup with Sandoval at 3B and Ishikawa at 1B using Bill James projections. His projection is basically what Ishikawa hit after May 9th, .772 OPS, which is much higher than Uribe's projection.
I like that the Giants have made a commitment to keeping Ishikawa around, I think he would be good in a quasi-platoon role with DeRosa or Uribe (Frandsen?) manning 3B while Sandoval moves to 1B against LHP and Ishikawa getting most starts against RHP, though maybe not the ones that he's especially vulnerable to, the ones who can make him swing like a fool.
Give It Up On Kevin Frandsen. He and Fred Lewis are both "Dead Giants Walking" and neither will make it to opening day.
See my comment above on Bowker vs. Ishikawa.
I know you like this guy, but realistically, he's on the bubble. The G's talk about him the in the OF is a lame attempt to get some trade value built up.
Frandsen will definitely be gone.
Lewis will be gone.
Ishikawa will mostly likely be gone.
Velez should be gone.
The first three are on the ropes, but the only one that should be canned is Velez.
Uribe was motivated much of last year because he had something to prove and was playing not only for a contract this year but a spot on a major league roster. The motivation is slightly less this year but still there because at the end of the year Uribe will be looking for another contract and will need to have performed well to get one. He isn't an everyday guy but 450 ab's isn't out of the question.
The SAD Facts are that Sabean is the same guy that 'signed' all these 'talented position players' coming up through the system and yet while he tries to replace them with various journeyman and utility players he has been enjoying pretty much a free ride from the local press about how poor his choices and job performance has really been. In reality the guy did some good things in the past, but he is way to 'comfortable' in his job and shows little 'hunger' to win. Just having a quiet afternoon or evening at the park just doesn't cut it anymore.
If you all can recall, when Uribe was palying 2B nearly everyday after Burriss got hurt and before Freddie, he started looking tired and worn down.
I dont think he will be as effective if he plays everyday. Two days at short and 2-3 at third I think will keep him fresher. He will be swinging at every pitch regardless. He may be a good hitter to plug into 5th agaisnt lefties if Pablo is kept in cleanup (which I think is a mistake).
I would also rather keep Pablo at third because he has more defensive upside there than at first. I would platoon DuDRosa over there at first with Ishi starting against most righties and then DuDRosa can play left 2-3 games. Maybe Pablo getting a start a week at first.
Everyone keeps talking LaRoche, did anyone watch the July series in Pittsburgh last year???? LaRoche went 1-12 with 4 strikeouts and looked completely lost with our pitching and you guys want him??? Fuggeddabout it...
We could solve all this madness by picking up Mike Lowell as his injury may not be that big of a deal. I don't have that much information on it and at least one team was scared enough not to sign him, but perhpas we get him for a year. He can hit with pop.
So, stick Lowell at first, Panda at 3rd and Uribe and Rent split SS, Sanchez at 2nd. Decent infield.
Outfield has DeRosa in left, Rownad and the boys in right. I would go with Whiteside catching until Posey can hang.
Sign O-Dog and move Sanchez to 3b, Panda plays 1st. Let Uribe and Renteria battle it out for short, DeRosa in LF, etc...
Orlando Hudson drives in more runs and slugs higher than most of the Giants currentl lineup...
Just as a running back get nowhere good without an offensive line a hitter isn’t going to drive in many runs with runners already on base. The only thing O Dawg would “drive in” with any regularity is in wheel chair races with the other banged up vets come July.
Where is a youtube clip of Mel Brooks “Silent Movie” when they are racing Paul Newman in wheel chairs when a guy needs it?
I could see the Nats putting more dollars on the table for Hudson than we can.
Podsednik looks KC bound, all for the better I guess. Rowand at leadoff, where is the barf bucket?
Lowell is close to being done, but he was ok in the first half last year. If the Red Sox pay $9 mill on his contract, I would not object...
I can't stand the thought of Rowand batting leadoff... well I can't stand the thought of Rowand period but in the leadoff spot he would be a complete joke. Why not make a 6 mil 1 year offer to Damon to play RF or LF and bat leadoff? He can still hit and get on base and set the table even outside of the little league field he played in last year. I can't think of any better alternatives and 1 year isn't a big deal...
Y'all are going to look back at this line-up and think it's funny that Posey's hitting 8th while Renteria's going second. That'll be flipped by about game 20, giving the Giants a decent 2 through 5. I really don't like Rowand leading off, though, and wish we could just eat as much of his contract as possible and ... well, what exactly I can't say. Damon gets on base, but I don't want him for more than a year or two. And if his arm's in there, Nate's gotta go everyday to counter-balance it. And Torres needs to man CF, if only for the defense.
Here is another thought for leadoff, Adam Kennedy. He plays infield and outfield so could bounce around much like DeRosa and he would be a better option then Rowand at leadoff. He had a decent year for the A's last year and could still prove useful and would probably come dirt cheap.
With Podsenik (thankfully) off the market, the next chip to fall is whomever the O's will acquire. My guess is Tejada goes back to Baltimore.
The G's will get either LaRoche, possibly at a lower price than the original offer, or Uggla, when the Fish realize they will not be getting anything from anyone on an obvious salary dump.
To think, thee Fish could have acquired J. Sanchez straight up for Uggla a year ago. Pendejos.
The Giants had only one position last year that played above league average. We all know that was third base. So what do the Giants do? Their only off-season signings are for guys who, with the middle infield occupied, would logically play third base. Sabean said Uribe is slated to start at third and DeRosa in left. We can hope that the two will play back to their best seasons but that is unlikely. It is more likely that the two will play back to their career average. Urube’s lifetime is very similar to Pedro Feliz’s without the gold glove:
Pedro Feliz lifetime:
.254 .293 .422 .715
Juan Uribe Lifetime:
.257 .298 .430 .729
Since Sandoval is slated to move to first, Uribe’s bat is basically replacing that of a first baseman. Now, to me, his numbers don’t look good enough to replace a first baseman. But maybe something else is going on. Maybe they plan to bring in Russell Branyan or some other inexpensive pickup to play first and put Sandoval behind the plate until that kid is ready. When Posey comes up to catch, Sandoval can go back to third and Uribe to utility. That would make some sense.
Nothing else does.
I would be nervous about Branyan's back, but he defintely has right field power regardless of the park. I think if we could get Blalock on a simialr deal as Glaus got with the Braves, there would be little risk making that move. Even as a power hitter off the bench...we never had a guy on the bench like Stairs who could smack one out at any time..
Royals got Podsednik on less than $2 mill....seems like it may have been worth the gamble...and the Reds landed Chapman for what will amount to just $1 mill for 2010 and $25 million spread over 10 years...that is the kind of out of the box thinking I want from a GM...
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