For all the warm, fuzzy, cult-status love for Juan Uribe 'round these parts, let's face it, there's a real danger he'll regress to his past form of being one of the worst hackers in baseball. It's like his avatar is a non-blue, non-sexy Pedro Feliz. I haven't seen the movie, but all the kids are talking about it, so I figure a hip reference would go a long way to win over some new readers.
Back to Uribe: Last year's .329 OBP was his career high. Perhaps he's turned a corner, and he'll just get older, wiser, and more plate-disciplined! Would you like to share my magic sprinkles?
Most people in baseball were not tempted by the warm fuzzies or the magic sprinkles, and Uribe came back to S.F. for a one-year deal that pays $3.25 M despite giving the Giants $13 M worth of feel-goodness in 2009. I don't think this is akin to Adrian Beltre going all counter-intuitive on us. My guess is that everyone saw Uribe's '09 as a fluke, and the Giants probably did, too. Drip some truth serum into his ear, and Brian Sabean likely would admit he'd be thrilled if Uribe gives S.F. 50% to 75% of what he gave them last year.
So all this talk about Uribe starting every day at third base, don't expect that to be the final say, full-stop, period. Everything the Giants brass says this winter should end with an ellipsis...
Yes, Uribe was the starting 3B for much of the second half last year. But surely the Giants know about BABIP (surely! surely?!?) -- you know, a player's batting average on balls in play, which gives a rough showing of a player's luck -- and Uribe's '09 BABIP was .330, by far the highest of his career not counting his abbreviated rookie year. He's hit more line drives the past two years than he has since leaving Colorado, which might indicate the higher BABIP isn't just luck, but chances are Uribe will need a lot of continued good luck to repeat or come close to his '09 season. If you dig such things, two different projections systems, CHONE and Bill James, predict Nate Schierholtz will outhit Uribe next year by a wide margin.
With Mark DeRosa, Pablo Sandoval, even Freddie Sanchez able to play third base, don't expect Bochy to keep Uribe in the starting lineup there day in, day out if he reverts back to the slop hacker of the mid-aughts.
That's not to say the Giants shouldn't have re-signed him. His defensive flexibility is valuable. His ability to hit with power is something most utility infielders completely lack. He's not an obvious lefty-masher -- in fact his splits in '09 were bizarro-world -- so exploiting Uribe's strengths is not a simple proposition.
With yesterday's press conference behind us, how about a little lineup fun (and feel free to put ironic quotemarks around the word "fun"):
CF Rowand
SS Renteria
2B Sanchez
1B Sandoval
LF DeRosa
RF Schierholtz
3B Uribe
C Posey
P Lincecum
Using this lineup analysis tool and the Bill James set of 2010 OBP and SLG predictions, the above lineup would score just under 4.5 runs a game, for what it's worth. In 2009 they averaged 4.05 runs a game. Also figure pinch-hitters and double-switches will boost the numbers from the #9 slot and give a tick more offense. I don't put tons of stock in the analysis tool, not to mention accurate stastical projections, but at least it's a conversation starter next time you walk into a bar:
"Did you know it's possible the Giants lineup is already half a run per game better than last year?"
I highly recommend this as a pick-up line, by the way. But I don't recommend using the phrase "slop hacking." Big turn-off.
