This is Intriguing Question #3 of spring training. To refresh your memory, #1 was "Whither Madison Bumgarner?" and #2 was "Whuther Buster Posey?"
I admit the identity of the next middle reliever plucked off the scrap heap is not as intriguing as near-term prognostications for the Giants' top two prospects. But it lets us answer, in a roundabout way, the following question: "Todd Welle#$%^&$meyer?!?!?"
Don't believe all the hypey hype about Bumgarner and Wellemeyer "competing" for the fifth rotation slot. It's not a field of two. Remember this: Even if MadBum makes it clear he needs to start the year in AAA, Wellemeyer doesn't automatically win. He still has to pitch well this spring, and based on his career that's no small feat. It would be a minor miracle if he could replicate his 2008 season, which was under the tutelage of St. Louis pitching coach/magician Dave Duncan. Put another way, Wellemeyer makes you realize that Brett Tomko wouldn't be such a bad idea as a fifth starter. If Wellemeyer falters, MadBum doesn't automatically bump up to the bigs. Joe Martinez, Kevin Pucetas, and Rule 5 draftee Steven Johnson are theoretically in the mix.
But I came here to talk about the bullpen. Johnson and Wellemeyer might be long or swing men, and the Giants invited seven more pitchers with big-league experience to come to camp: Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, Horacio Ramirez, Eric Hacker, Tony Pena Jr., a late convert from shortstop, Denny Bautista, and Byung-Hyun Kim, returning after two years of retirement in South Korea and still only 31 years old. They'd make an interesting triple-A bullpen, but most of them are longshots to stick in the bigs. If you had to bet on one, Mota would be your man.
Before we continue, let me refresh your acquaintance with WXRL, a stat that measures a reliever's effectiveness taking into context the leverage of the situation. In other words, a strikeout with a one-run lead and two outs with the bases loaded in the ninth is more valuable than a strikeout with a five-run lead, bases empty in the eighth.
With the Dodgers Mota served up a barely passable WXRL in 2009. If he were really good, he wouldn't be a non-roster invitee. But he still throws hard with good sink, and as with any of these last-chance type guys, you never know when he'll rediscover his fleeting mojo, or squeeze a half-season of decentness from a fading talent, or allow the years of unfufilled promise finally to gel. Or in the case of Pena Jr., take a shine to pitching at a late date.
Barring injury or trade, these NRI palookas are fighting for one, perhaps two spots. So far the Giant bullpen will almost certainly include these gentlemen:
- Wilson
- Runzler
- Affeldt
- Romo
- Medders
Waldis Joaquin is often mentioned as a strong candidate, but I think he'll have to show more control to make his above-average fastball a weapon. An unsung minor-league possibility is Steve Edlefsen, who jumped three levels in 2009 and threw well in the Arizona Fall League. His success, however, is tempered by a frighteningly high walk rate. He won't survive in the bigs walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, as he's done in the minors. A strong spring could also put Alex Hinshaw, Osiris Matos or Henry Sosa in the picture.
The looming background issue to all this bullpen discussion is whether Brian Wilson will remain the closer for years to come. In this, his first arb year, he's earning $4.4 million. It's easy to see him nearing $10 million by his final year, a massive sum for a second-tier closer. Mind you, Wilson is good, but he's not on the Rivera-Papelbon-Nathan-Broxton-Soria level. Based on WXRL, Wilson was the 23rd best reliever in the majors last year (teammate Jeremy Affeldt was 13th). Wilson was 13th in 2008. If his '08-'09 performance represents the peak of his abilities, the Giants will probably think hard about Wilson's value compared to other pitchers on staff. Keep an eye on Dan Runzler's work against right-handed batters this year. If he can retire lefties and righties in equal fashion, he might make Wilson expendable next winter. This is what's known as premature runzlermania. Please consult your doctor.
