Quick note about yesterday's game vs. the Brewers: I guess vegetarians can be clueless a-holes, too.
Onward.
Tim Lincecum's back-to-back Cy Youngs and arbitration case this winter spurred a lot of talk about long-term contracts for young players. What about Pablo Sandoval?
Unless his brief stint in 2008 (145 PAs, a month and a half on the big-league roster) vaults him into Super-Two status, Panda will be eligible for arbitration after the 2011 season. Do the Giants want to go year by year with him, or will they look soon to lock him up? The question with Sandoval is not his bat, it's his body. My guess is they'll wait at least another few months to see how he responds to the "Operation Panda" off-season training regimen (not to be confused with "panda operation"), though by all reports this spring he's not looking much leaner than before.
It's worth a quick review of the Giants' payroll obligations through 2014. Note that 2012 is going to be a crusher with Zito and Rowand still on the books, Lincecum due a raise from his $14 M salary in 2011, Wilson and J. Sanchez in their final arb years, and Cain perhaps testing the free-agent market.
For the sake of argument let's say the Giants wait until the next off-season to go long-term with Sandoval. At that point, Pablo will have another year under the team's total control, three years of arbitration, then free agency. This is where the spectacular Justin Upton sits, and he just signed a six-year, $51 M deal with Arizona that goes through two free agent years. Upton's deal breaks down this way: $1.25 M in 2010, $5.25 M in '11, $8 M in '12, $10.5 M in '13, and $13.2 M in '14 and '15 each. Discussing Upton, Joe Pawlikowski of Fangraphs.com offers more comps:
For comparison, Ryan Braun will earn $4, $6, and $8.5 million for his arbitration years, followed by $10 and $12 million for his first two free agent years. Hanley Ramirez's deal paid him $5.5 for his first arbitration year and will pay him $7 million for the second this year. In the third he'll make $11 million, followed by $15, $15.5, and $16 million in free agent equivalent salaries.
The most comparable [to Upton] could be David Wright, who earned $1 million in his final reserve clause season, followed by arbitration salaries of $5, $7.5, and $10 million. The Mets then have his first two free agency years at $14 and $15 million, with a $16 million club option for a third.
If Panda repeats or improves his 2009 season this year he'll be in the discussion for something similar. On offense, he's proving to be more or less the equal of Longoria and Upton (measured by wOBA). Swap out Upton for Braun, and it's a similar picture.
On defense, however, Sandoval lags behind. Longoria outshines him (and nearly everyone else) with the glove at the hot corner, and Upton in RF is good and getting better. Sandoval was merely adequate at third last year, and he's a prime candidate to move across to first base in the next couple years.
If Longoria is the ne plus ultra of young elite talent trading arbitration dollars for long-term security, Ryan Braun might be the low end of the group. Braun's defense at 3B was bad enough to merit a move to LF after one year. (And he hasn't been good in the outfield, either.)
Sandoval's D hasn't sunk to Braun's level, but if he can't keep the weight off, wear and tear will take its toll and he won't be among the truly elite young players who excel at all phases of the game. Nor will the Giants be willing to pay him as one.
