On August 3, Jonathan Sanchez and four relievers shut out the Rockies 10-0. Since then, as noted near and far, the rotation has gone winless with an ERA near 6. Sometimes the offense hasn't held up its end, and a starter has gotten "Cain'ed," but the starters are not without blame, as the ERA attests.
I've found another culprit: the defense. In the past 14 days, the starters' ERA is 5.97. But their FIP -- an ERA-like figure that strips out the performance of the defense -- is more than a run and a half lower, or 4.27. The batting average on balls in play against them is a whopping .383. Here are the individual lines:
Cain 4.91 ERA / 1.81 FIP / .437 BABIP
Bumgarner 4.86 ERA / 3.81 FIP / .391 BABIP
Lincecum 9.00 ERA / 4.94 FIP / .458 BABIP
Barry Zito 4.94 ERA / 5.05 FIP / .323 BABIP
Jonathan Sanchez 6.75 ERA / 6.09 FIP / .304 BABIP
For the season, SF's starters have a slightly better ERA (3.65) than FIP (3.97), and a BABIP of .288. Perhaps it's only small sample size noise, but in the past two weeks the ERA has ballooned while the FIP has risen just a blip.
The defensive measurement "Defensive Efficiency" is the rate at which a team converts balls in play into outs. On the season, the Giants are rated third in the NL and 7th overall. Not bad. But I don't know how that number has changed in the past few weeks.
I do know, however, that observers are noting lately that the Sandoval/Uribe combo on the left side of the infield seems slow and porous. And in the outfield, even if plodders like Burrell, Huff and Guillen can catch everything they reach, how many balls are they not reaching? It's hard to say with certainty without going back and watching tape, but the discrepancy between ERA and FIP makes me wonder if the Giants' gamble on bats (Wild Kingdom!) over gloves this year is starting to bite back hard in the -- forgive me -- dog days of August.
I've found another culprit: the defense. In the past 14 days, the starters' ERA is 5.97. But their FIP -- an ERA-like figure that strips out the performance of the defense -- is more than a run and a half lower, or 4.27. The batting average on balls in play against them is a whopping .383. Here are the individual lines:
Cain 4.91 ERA / 1.81 FIP / .437 BABIP
Bumgarner 4.86 ERA / 3.81 FIP / .391 BABIP
Lincecum 9.00 ERA / 4.94 FIP / .458 BABIP
Barry Zito 4.94 ERA / 5.05 FIP / .323 BABIP
Jonathan Sanchez 6.75 ERA / 6.09 FIP / .304 BABIP
For the season, SF's starters have a slightly better ERA (3.65) than FIP (3.97), and a BABIP of .288. Perhaps it's only small sample size noise, but in the past two weeks the ERA has ballooned while the FIP has risen just a blip.
The defensive measurement "Defensive Efficiency" is the rate at which a team converts balls in play into outs. On the season, the Giants are rated third in the NL and 7th overall. Not bad. But I don't know how that number has changed in the past few weeks.
I do know, however, that observers are noting lately that the Sandoval/Uribe combo on the left side of the infield seems slow and porous. And in the outfield, even if plodders like Burrell, Huff and Guillen can catch everything they reach, how many balls are they not reaching? It's hard to say with certainty without going back and watching tape, but the discrepancy between ERA and FIP makes me wonder if the Giants' gamble on bats (Wild Kingdom!) over gloves this year is starting to bite back hard in the -- forgive me -- dog days of August.
