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The Strasburgian Caution

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I like the ring of that. If Robert Ludlum were alive, he'd be crawling to me for his next book title.

Nats phenom pitcher Stephen Strasburg is headed for Tommy John surgery. Wow. You couldn't dream up more cruelty unless you found a dehydrated man sprawled nearly lifeless in the desert, picked him up, dusted him off, wet his lips with cool clear water from your canteen, used the rest of the water to wash your armpits, and told him you'd be back in 18 months with more water.

That's what life is like right now for Nats fans or for anyone who's not too partisan and just wants to see good young ballplayers thrive. The injury came more or less out of the blue, although no arm injury for any pitcher should ever be a complete surprise. And there's the rub -- or as we used to say in the old days, the unguent -- for the Giants seem perilously thin to me in their much-hallowed pitching ranks.

The rotation's shoddy performance in August only underscores my nervousness. The Padres proved you can find a mediocre innings-eater to plug holes, but the Jon Garlands of the world are tied to a fair amount of luck and seasonal variation, at least from where I sit. You could spin the roulette wheel on low-cost starters all day and just as soon come up with a whole lotta Wellemeyers. And how do you explain this guy's year?

In other words, waiting for end of winter to stock up on rotation depth seems a dicey proposition. A quick review of Giant minor league starters who might help in 2011:

1) Kevin Pucetas. The Giants thought more of Joe Martinez. 
2) Henry Sosa. Injuries have dimmed his prospects. He's starting again in AAA, but from the numbers seems very hittable -- lots of walks and home runs, not a ton of strikeouts. Perhaps he'll improve the longer he stays healthy, but it's not something to count on.
3) A bunch of guys at Double-A Richmond who have fairly low ERAs but low strikeout rates, too. Not a good sign in a pitcher's league.

Otherwise, nothing in the high minors. There are some promising arms lower down to complement the Giants' top pick in 2009 Zach Wheeler, who lost a lot of time this year to a fingernail problem, but none will be in the Big Rotation next year.

So with that lack of depth, the Giants will push down the stretch (and go into 2011) with a rotation that includes a hugely talented kid who has finally admitted he needs better conditioning -- not to mention conditioner; a 21-year-old pushing past his previous season highs in innings; an overpaid veteran who hasn't yet put together two good halves in his four years in SF; a dirty-armed lefty who can't put together two great starts in a row; and Matt Cain.

Lie back on the couch, close your eyes, and tell me: How does that make you feel?


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